6 ms·
"It isn't affecting me so it doesn't exist" is a fairly elementary mistake, yeah?
by ergonaught 4y ago
"It isn't affecting me so it doesn't exist" is a fairly elementary mistake, yeah?
- CyanLite4 4y ago“A recession is when you hear about your neighbor losing their job, a depression is when you lose your job.”
- lake_vincent 4y agoWell, technically, it's only a recession if it comes from the Rècession region of France. What OP is referring to is called bubbly fiscal agony.
- EToS 4y ago
- argen 4y agoThis make me spit all my coffee.
- lake_vincent 4y agoI would buy you another cup of coffee to replace it, but money is a little tight these days...
- juancn 4y agoHave my humble upvote good sir or madam. A good day to you!
- SantalBlush 4y agoTimes are getting so tough that people are stealing jokes [0]. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33283106 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33283106
- lake_vincent 4y agoRelax buddy, it's a meme [0]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meme https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meme
- SantalBlush 4y agoOh it's definitely a meme. My reply is also a meme. We're just having fun.
- neogodless 4y agoSome would say a well-documented and evidence-supported meme is no meme at all.
- yellowapple 4y agoSome would say 1 + 1 = 3.
- lake_vincent 4y agoOh damn, that was good. The actual citation is what threw me, well done.
- brnt 4y agoI ain't your buddy, friend.
- andrewstuart2 4y agoThis joke is widely adapted and reused, though. You could basically call it a meme format at this point.
- stevenfoster 4y agoYeah this was fantastic. Let them have cake!
- ryanmercer 4y agoI wish HN had awards like Reddit, I would spend coin on this comment. I got a much-needed proper belly laugh from it. :)
- kubami 4y agoI think the implied question was "It isn't affecting me, here is the data I see around myself. That data is incongruent with the headlines, can you offer an explanation and show me what I am missing?"
- incone123 4y agoThat's a generous interpretation. I think someone capable of negotiating themselves a new tech job at higher pay could only be asking this question rhetorically and not because they are incapable of answering it themselves.
- roenxi 4y agoAnd the answer is if someone surveys the inside of an office, they'll report very high employment rates. The world is large and diverse. To understand it, one has to look at statistics. Looking at people runs in to hard limits very quickly, because it is only possible to see people who are in the same place as the viewer.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- apozem 4y agoThe internet commenter's fallacy: I can only interpret things that happen to other people through things that have happened to me. To some degree, this is just the human condition, but it is especially common (and annoying) in internet comments.
- maxbond 4y agoI think something about not being face to face makes people prone to think of your fellow commenters as an abstraction, and to interpret the ways their experiences differ as from yours as their misunderstanding rather than your not having that set of experiences. I'm aware of this, and am often able to catch myself and reflect further before hitting send, but will still observe this if I look over my past comments.
- melling 4y agoWe aren’t in a recession yet. Companies are starting to see the slowdown, so they are taking preemptive action so as earnings contract, P/Es will hold up better. The politically minded readers of Hacker News refused to listen to those who said 2 quarters of negative GDP doesn’t necessarily mean a recession. It would be really nice if we could take a deeper dive into economics, markets, etc and all learn but …
- willsmith72 4y agoHas there ever been a recession so widely accepted and talked about before it kicked in? I mean that honestly; I know there's a downturn and it'll probably continue, but my instinct is that something so widely talked about and accepted will probably not be as bad as it seems. Again I have no proof and maybe my instincts are totally wrong, but that's the feeling
- bryanlarsen 4y agoIt's very common for recessions to be widely talked about before they happen. I first heard talk about the upcoming housing bubble burst in 2003, five years before the bubble actually burst. "Economists have predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions" - Paul Samuelson
- randomdata 4y ago> I first heard talk about the upcoming housing bubble burst in 2003, five years before the bubble actually burst. 2006 is when the housing bubble was pierced. It took another couple of years to fully deflate, so bursting isn't likely the best depiction of the event, but typically when we talk about bubbles bursting we refer to the first moment of weakness, not the tail end. It was the securities market that crashed fast and hard five years later. The housing market crash played a role in that happening, I'm sure, but isn't housing itself.
- mgkimsal 4y agoI first learned what 'no doc' loans where in 2004. I worked inside a mortgage company for a while, and was a bit shocked by some of the numbers I saw. BUT... I don't think a housing bubble/crash was a foregone conclusion in 2003/2004, but warning signs were there and got louder over time.
- danielvaughn 4y agoThe "works on my machine" for the economic world.
- nikau 4y agoSo obviously what we need is docker for the economy
- quickthrower2 4y agoWhich might look like Matrix downloads?
- ianai 4y agoAnd any non random sample of a much larger population is almost certainly biased.
- mgh2 4y agoSame can be said in the reverse: "It is affecting me, so it does exist". Bias on both ends, qualitative data is often not reliable. Last election: "If my social circle thinks we are going to win, then it is a given". Both share a pattern: a tech bubble (pun intended) Some data (need more) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33453819 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33453819
- SantalBlush 4y agoYou are indeed correct. Much of the "data" I've seen here in support of the recession argument revolve around tech layoffs (and, of course, inflation), and when someone points out that real GDP grew and the unemployment rate is low, someone will respond by telling you how bad their neighbor in some tech city has it right now.
- WithinReason 4y agoYou didn't notice the use of statistics?
- sangnoir 4y agoOP has a great point: most recessions have low job numbers (because of weak demand). Speaking for the US: This 'recession' is weird because consumer demand is strong, job openings are high, the unemployment rate is near record lows, and GDP grew in the last quarter. So, to echo OP - what recession? A drop in the stock market does not a recession make. It almost seems as if some quarters are willing a recession into being, but consumers are not having it. Granted the federal reserve is trying to curtail consumer spending to curb inflation, so I get why businesses would predict a recession. In all, it feels like the twilight zone.