5 ms·

Just today I ran across this widely promoted ABC/CBS article claiming that "Texas, Oklahoma ranked among least safest states in the country". The type of suppos

Just today I ran across this widely promoted ABC/CBS article claiming that "Texas, Oklahoma ranked among least safest states in the country". The type of supposedly non-opinion flavor piece syndicated above-the-fold in Windows 11 Search, Apple News, Android home pages, and Reddit/Twitter defaults. https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/texas-oklahoma-ranked-among-least-safest-states-in-the-country-wallethub-emergency-preparedness-financial-safety https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/texas-oklahoma-ranked-among... It turns out that it is wholly based on a corporate PR puff piece by Wallethub, with a very pseudoscientific and manipulative use of statistics to reach its conclusions. The arbitrary weight assigned to the entire category of physical and property crimes was 15%. Bullying incident count was weighted as more important than drug overdoses. And when factoring in Covid, they weighted based on vaccination rates - not actual local hospitalizations/deaths. https://wallethub.com/edu/safest-states-to-live-in/4566 https://wallethub.com/edu/safest-states-to-live-in/4566

socialismisok 4y ago
Drug overdoses are probably a pretty minor impact to safety though, right? And vaccination rates are a pretty standard way to indicate the safety of a community against a virus...
- skellington 4y ago
  Sure, so I guess you're being willingly misled here because the most important thing is dunking on red states due to your politics. So, if some random article says "Dallas is less safe than NYC," you are forced to believe it even though the article weighted covid vaccine rate at 90% and murder at 10%.
  - tomjakubowski 4y ago
    The average American is much more likely to die from Covid than from murder (and, in the recent past, Covid was the far more likely fate), so this doesn't seem crazy on its face.
    - cudgy 4y ago
      What is an average American?
      - socialismisok 4y ago
        The number of deaths divided by the number of Americans. The phrase "average American" is shorthand for "statistically across all Americans".
    - leereeves 4y ago
      Sure, but the relevant statistic is Covid death rate, not vaccination rate. And by death rate, Texas is actually #21 (#1 being best) among states and surprisingly safer than New York: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covi...
  - socialismisok 4y ago
    I have no interest in dunking on red states or praising blue ones. I think that divide is both stupid and missing the point. We're way better served by looking at things like class divide, imo. Also, the methodology gave murders per Capita double weight and vaccine percentages double weight. Both are numbers bound between 0 and 1, and both have a significant impact on population safety. So no, I'd much rather talk about why someone would make those weightings and what the correct ratings should be using a statistical analysis mixed with some judgements of how safe I feel in the face of those statistics.
tobyjsullivan 4y ago
Just for fun, it's also worth noting that "Texas, Oklahoma ranked among least safest states in the country" doesn't actually mean anything - at least not anything of importance. It feels like it should mean those states are "unsafe" but that's not necessarily true. There must always be a "most safe" and "least safe" state (by a given measure) - but if the spread between them is insignificant then that's not particularly important information. Even less so when the headline qualifies with "ranks among" so they're not even the actual least safe.

socialismisok 4y ago

Drug overdoses are probably a pretty minor impact to safety though, right? And vaccination rates are a pretty standard way to indicate the safety of a community against a virus...

skellington 4y ago
Sure, so I guess you're being willingly misled here because the most important thing is dunking on red states due to your politics. So, if some random article says "Dallas is less safe than NYC," you are forced to believe it even though the article weighted covid vaccine rate at 90% and murder at 10%.
- tomjakubowski 4y ago
  The average American is much more likely to die from Covid than from murder (and, in the recent past, Covid was the far more likely fate), so this doesn't seem crazy on its face.
  - cudgy 4y ago
    What is an average American?
    - socialismisok 4y ago
      The number of deaths divided by the number of Americans. The phrase "average American" is shorthand for "statistically across all Americans".
  - leereeves 4y ago
    Sure, but the relevant statistic is Covid death rate, not vaccination rate. And by death rate, Texas is actually #21 (#1 being best) among states and surprisingly safer than New York: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covi...
- socialismisok 4y ago
  I have no interest in dunking on red states or praising blue ones. I think that divide is both stupid and missing the point. We're way better served by looking at things like class divide, imo. Also, the methodology gave murders per Capita double weight and vaccine percentages double weight. Both are numbers bound between 0 and 1, and both have a significant impact on population safety. So no, I'd much rather talk about why someone would make those weightings and what the correct ratings should be using a statistical analysis mixed with some judgements of how safe I feel in the face of those statistics.

tobyjsullivan 4y ago

Just for fun, it's also worth noting that "Texas, Oklahoma ranked among least safest states in the country" doesn't actually mean anything - at least not anything of importance. It feels like it should mean those states are "unsafe" but that's not necessarily true. There must always be a "most safe" and "least safe" state (by a given measure) - but if the spread between them is insignificant then that's not particularly important information. Even less so when the headline qualifies with "ranks among" so they're not even the actual least safe.