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Musk is going to discover (and maybe admit?) that fixing Twitter is harder than he thought. Yeah I think he's going to intensely focus on Twitter for ~6 months

Musk is going to discover (and maybe admit?) that fixing Twitter is harder than he thought. Yeah I think he's going to intensely focus on Twitter for ~6 months, not change much, get bored, and then move onto something else.

kjksf 4y ago
The way he got bored running Tesla and SpaceX for ~20 years? I really don't get where this meme of "impulsive, erratic, hotheaded Musk" comes from given he demonstrated ability to stick with a business in the toughest of times. Tesla was literally days away from bankruptcy at one time and Musk made it work. After first 3 failed launches he was about to run out of money and yet he financed another launch, which worked. He hasn't had a business failure yet. Is that a guy who gets bored and moves on to something else?
- edmundsauto 4y ago
  Those companies are solving problems with logistics and engineering. Twitter is fundamentally trying to solve a people problem, which is much fuzzier. Every impression I've had from "public Elon" is that he is absolutely wretched at people-problems-at-scale. I'm also not sure there is any human ever who has been able to solve people problems at Twitter's scale.
  - permo-w 4y ago
    John Maynard Keynes
    - edmundsauto 4y ago
      Could you elaborate? He wrote a book that many considered important, but how specifically did he solve people problems? To me it sounds like he understood emergent behaviors in economics, but didn’t those economicists also believe in the rational actor? That is not an accurate assumption about humanity.
      - permo-w 4y ago
        Keynes’ solutions to human problems on a macro scale lifted millions upon millions of people out of poverty in the post-war era keynesianism eventually failed because corporations and large capital holders will not act rationally towards the whole when they have interests that benefit themselves. so I suppose you’re right. but that doesn’t change the fact that for a good 30 years his ideas and solutions made life better for a huge number of people
- ipqk 4y ago
  The Boring Company is a failure. He's had many other failures within companies: automated driving, Tesla solar panels Though he's the CEO of SpaceX, it's really run by Gwynne Shotwell. You look at his wikipedia, and there's like 10 different things he's currently involved with, so yes, he looks like a guy that gets bored and moves on the other things.
  - ComplexSystems 4y ago
    I don't think it makes sense to compare a giant, multibillionaire organization like Twitter to something like the Boring Company, which was never really intended to be a main venture.
  - xiphias2 4y ago
    Why would the boring company be a failure? I expect creating tunnels 20 years from now as important as right now. Traffic jams are not going away magically, but automation can bring the cost of creating tunnels down, which can increase the total market significantly. Time is helping the company (just like other projects Elon has started), so there's no rush to scale up and turn profit.
    - mola 4y ago
      How are tunnels solving traffic jams?
      - nequo 4y ago
        Not solving but alleviating, by rerouting transiting traffic through bypass routes underground. For example, in Washington DC: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9th_and_12th_Street_Expressways https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9th_and_12th_Street_Expressway...
        esclerofilo 4y ago
        But does rerouting traffic through other bypasses actually alleviate traffic? > Motorways and bypasses generate traffic, that is, produce extra traffic, partly by inducing people to travel who would not otherwise have done so by making the new route more convenient than the old, partly by people who go out of their direct route to enjoy the greater convenience of the new road, and partly by people who use the towns bypassed because they are more convenient for shopping and visits when through traffic has been removed From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand
- tenpies 4y ago
  > The way he got bored running Tesla and SpaceX for ~20 years? For all practical purposes, doesn't Shotwell run SpaceX and Elon just shows up to give "input", whenever the capital raise du-jour is necessary, and to do the marketing and PR? It does seem to me he will need another Shotwell for either Tesla or Twitter, though. You can be CEO of as many companies as you want, but if the CEO is also doing the Operations part of the work, then you're constrained to pretty much one company at a time. I wonder if we'll see Jack come back to Twitter.
  - lutorm 4y ago
    For all practical purposes, doesn't Shotwell run SpaceX and Elon just shows up to give "input", whenever the capital raise du-jour is necessary, and to do the marketing and PR? No.
    - RavingGoat 4y ago
      So no he doesn't give "input"? Shotwell is definitely in charge.
      - lutorm 4y ago
        Is that so?
  - thenewthotness 4y ago
    So the best argument you have here is that Musk is good at hiring competent people? Sounds to me like this makes him an excellent CEO.
- mhh__ 4y ago
  Musk of today does not feel like the one of even 5 years ago.
  - cameronh90 4y ago
    He called that diver "pedo guy" 4 years ago. I don't feel like Musk has really changed, he's always been a bit nuts. He just has a bigger reach now.
    - sidibe 4y ago
      Autonomous Tesla's were also ready by the end of the year 5+ years ago. He's always been the way he is, the difference is the number of people who have caught on to his schtick by now.
      - biscottigelato 4y ago
        Falcon Heavy was delayed for 8 years. Launching another one and simultaneously landing 3 rockets there after. Hard stuff takes time. People with no patience and perseverance never gets big stuff done. Musk is not the same.
    - acjohnson55 4y ago
      That remains a turning point for me.
    - sgt 4y ago
      Did we ever find out if was right about the diver?
      - replygirl 4y ago
        how about i unfoundedly call you a nonce and we can let the people around you debate whether it's true for the rest of your life?
      - dghlsakjg 4y ago
        Musk admitted in court that the term ‘pedo guy’ was not meant to be taken as a literal accusation of pedophilia. Basically Musk said that he was just insulting him in a general sense and that the man was not a pedophile
- d23 4y ago
  > I really don't get where this meme of "impulsive, erratic, hotheaded Musk" comes from His behavior like… every day and the fact that he apparently accidentally just bought a $44B company doesn’t at least let you see where people are coming from?
  - philosopher1234 4y ago
    These musk heads are insane. The projection is ridiculous, portraying the characterization of musk as impulsive as a "meme" when they are so deeply steeped in reality denial... drives me insane. They need a serious correction, crypto style.
    - ellyagg 4y ago
      I wish my impulsive decisions led me to become the richest person in the world over the courese of decades.
      - midasz 4y ago
        Being born rich helps the odds somewhat
- notfromhere 4y ago
  People have Dorsey a lot of shit for being part time CEO of Twitter and Square. Not sure how an even more split CEO is supposed to make things better
- randoglando 4y ago
  > I really don't get where this meme of "impulsive, erratic, hotheaded Musk" comes from The same guy who tweeted "Funding secured". His tweets about starting boring company, and buying twitter. His email exchanges that are now public. He is VERY impulsive and erratic (maybe not hotheaded). All his tweets on Bitcoin: https://www.rockwelltrading.com/articles/coffee-with-markus/elon-musks-tweets-about-bitcoin/ https://www.rockwelltrading.com/articles/coffee-with-markus/...
- maxbond 4y ago
  > He hasn't had a business failure yet. I don't know why people say this when stuff goes wrong for him all the time. He literally just failed to get out of this Twitter deal.
  - emkoemko 4y ago
    there are people worshipping him like he is Jesus, something is really wrong here, how do people say he has not had a business fail? seriously SpaceX was a failure without the government stepping in at the last moment even he admits it.. look how he scammed the US government to keep Tesla going... i guess these are not "real" failures but from his own words government shouldn't be subsidizing business .... never mind all the failures he has had.
- madeofpalk 4y ago
  Twitter has always been a failed business, which he bought, so...?
aquova 4y ago
This is my guess as well, but on a bit longer timescale. I think we'll see some noteworthy features over the next year as he tackles low hanging fruit(the reply button for example, although it sounds like that was already in development). This will be followed by a year or two of slow down as they run into social/technological issues, followed by Musk selling off the company.
GMoromisato 4y ago
Maybe. He hasn't given up on self-driving after it turned out to be much harder than he thought. He's still pouring money and time into it. And he hasn't given up on Starlink, even though it is not nearly as profitable as he hoped originally. He's just launching more satellites. And he hasn't given up on Starship even though it is years late. He's doubling down on its development. But I conceded that he might not see Twitter as critical for his ultimate goals. Maybe he'll just sell it to a bigger fool in a few years?
- biscottigelato 4y ago
  People just don't know Musk. Falcon Heavy was delayed for 8 years. It took 8 years longer. He still got it to work. With all 3 rockets landing simultaneously at the same time. SpaceX also beat Boeing with a smaller budget (NASA gave more to Boeing) in sending astronauts to the ISS. Boeing still is not able to get a successful test launch 2 years after SpaceX got the first astronauts to ISS from US domestic soil. Then there's Tesla, where the Model Y, despite being double the price of a Corolla, outsold the Corolla - https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/10/tesla-model-y-passing-toyota-corolla-as-best-selling-car.html https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/10/tesla-model-y-passing-... If you can stumble into so many achievements by luck. Or just by oh, lean on a few Shotwells and engineers.... then why are companies like Meta and Snap etc in the trash bin? Why is Boeing still stuck on the ground? Why after a half a decade of Tesla killers than nobody is getting killed but legacy automakers (all declining revenue and deliveries).
  - doubleunplussed 4y ago
    For what it's worth, two of the Falcon Heavy cores landed simultaneously at the launch site, the third was intended to land on a barge at sea, but came in too hot and crashed into the ocean.
- randoglando 4y ago
  For every example you stated, there are more for things he has changed his mind on: > https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-snake-charger-elon-musk/ https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-snake-charger-elon-musk/ > https://insideevs.com/news/326869/elon-musk-comments-on-failed-tesla-battery-swap/ https://insideevs.com/news/326869/elon-musk-comments-on-fail... The latter he said was due to low uptake (which is nonsense - you can find YouTube videos of how unfindable the place is). > https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1017149641991680002 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1017149641991680002 More stuff he has given up on.
sawyna 4y ago
I think it's not exactly fair to compare Twitter with his other endeavours. Others are very hard problems. What Musk will do with twitter is figure out an action plan: IMO changing twitter into X will be a viable way of letting it survive. He's gonna chart a course of action that could work and give the reins to someone else for execution. Musk's time is valuable given that he's leading a lot of companies. He's not going to sit around and mull over twitter. The best thing he can do is spend time => chart a plan => hire a capable CEO who is best at execution (Tim Cook for instance). If he spends more time on twitter, his other bets will get hurt disproportionately.
- arrrg 4y ago
  Twitter is a very hard problem because it’s not a technological or engineering challenge. It’s politics, politics, politics. From all angles and perspectives, in the possibly most annoying way. You have to make so many politics and policy decisions that all have many up- and downsides and that are just plain hard to make. From a technology perspective Twitter is not at all interesting and the rest is just plain annoying. Plus, it’s a small social network, mostly relevant because important people (imagine myself rolling my eyes here) are on it. So doing other social media stuff that rely on network effects? (Messenger, payment, ...) Not really realistic. Not because the technology is infeasible. None of this is a technological challenge. It’s just politics and network effects.

kjksf 4y ago

The way he got bored running Tesla and SpaceX for ~20 years? I really don't get where this meme of "impulsive, erratic, hotheaded Musk" comes from given he demonstrated ability to stick with a business in the toughest of times. Tesla was literally days away from bankruptcy at one time and Musk made it work. After first 3 failed launches he was about to run out of money and yet he financed another launch, which worked. He hasn't had a business failure yet. Is that a guy who gets bored and moves on to something else?

edmundsauto 4y ago
Those companies are solving problems with logistics and engineering. Twitter is fundamentally trying to solve a people problem, which is much fuzzier. Every impression I've had from "public Elon" is that he is absolutely wretched at people-problems-at-scale. I'm also not sure there is any human ever who has been able to solve people problems at Twitter's scale.
- permo-w 4y ago
  John Maynard Keynes
  - edmundsauto 4y ago
    Could you elaborate? He wrote a book that many considered important, but how specifically did he solve people problems? To me it sounds like he understood emergent behaviors in economics, but didn’t those economicists also believe in the rational actor? That is not an accurate assumption about humanity.
    - permo-w 4y ago
      Keynes’ solutions to human problems on a macro scale lifted millions upon millions of people out of poverty in the post-war era keynesianism eventually failed because corporations and large capital holders will not act rationally towards the whole when they have interests that benefit themselves. so I suppose you’re right. but that doesn’t change the fact that for a good 30 years his ideas and solutions made life better for a huge number of people
ipqk 4y ago
The Boring Company is a failure. He's had many other failures within companies: automated driving, Tesla solar panels Though he's the CEO of SpaceX, it's really run by Gwynne Shotwell. You look at his wikipedia, and there's like 10 different things he's currently involved with, so yes, he looks like a guy that gets bored and moves on the other things.
- ComplexSystems 4y ago
  I don't think it makes sense to compare a giant, multibillionaire organization like Twitter to something like the Boring Company, which was never really intended to be a main venture.
- xiphias2 4y ago
  Why would the boring company be a failure? I expect creating tunnels 20 years from now as important as right now. Traffic jams are not going away magically, but automation can bring the cost of creating tunnels down, which can increase the total market significantly. Time is helping the company (just like other projects Elon has started), so there's no rush to scale up and turn profit.
  - mola 4y ago
    How are tunnels solving traffic jams?
    - nequo 4y ago
      Not solving but alleviating, by rerouting transiting traffic through bypass routes underground. For example, in Washington DC: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9th_and_12th_Street_Expressways https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9th_and_12th_Street_Expressway...
      - esclerofilo 4y ago
        But does rerouting traffic through other bypasses actually alleviate traffic? > Motorways and bypasses generate traffic, that is, produce extra traffic, partly by inducing people to travel who would not otherwise have done so by making the new route more convenient than the old, partly by people who go out of their direct route to enjoy the greater convenience of the new road, and partly by people who use the towns bypassed because they are more convenient for shopping and visits when through traffic has been removed From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand
tenpies 4y ago
> The way he got bored running Tesla and SpaceX for ~20 years? For all practical purposes, doesn't Shotwell run SpaceX and Elon just shows up to give "input", whenever the capital raise du-jour is necessary, and to do the marketing and PR? It does seem to me he will need another Shotwell for either Tesla or Twitter, though. You can be CEO of as many companies as you want, but if the CEO is also doing the Operations part of the work, then you're constrained to pretty much one company at a time. I wonder if we'll see Jack come back to Twitter.
- lutorm 4y ago
  For all practical purposes, doesn't Shotwell run SpaceX and Elon just shows up to give "input", whenever the capital raise du-jour is necessary, and to do the marketing and PR? No.
  - RavingGoat 4y ago
    So no he doesn't give "input"? Shotwell is definitely in charge.
    - lutorm 4y ago
      Is that so?
- thenewthotness 4y ago
  So the best argument you have here is that Musk is good at hiring competent people? Sounds to me like this makes him an excellent CEO.
mhh__ 4y ago
Musk of today does not feel like the one of even 5 years ago.
- cameronh90 4y ago
  He called that diver "pedo guy" 4 years ago. I don't feel like Musk has really changed, he's always been a bit nuts. He just has a bigger reach now.
  - sidibe 4y ago
    Autonomous Tesla's were also ready by the end of the year 5+ years ago. He's always been the way he is, the difference is the number of people who have caught on to his schtick by now.
    - biscottigelato 4y ago
      Falcon Heavy was delayed for 8 years. Launching another one and simultaneously landing 3 rockets there after. Hard stuff takes time. People with no patience and perseverance never gets big stuff done. Musk is not the same.
  - acjohnson55 4y ago
    That remains a turning point for me.
  - sgt 4y ago
    Did we ever find out if was right about the diver?
    - replygirl 4y ago
      how about i unfoundedly call you a nonce and we can let the people around you debate whether it's true for the rest of your life?
    - dghlsakjg 4y ago
      Musk admitted in court that the term ‘pedo guy’ was not meant to be taken as a literal accusation of pedophilia. Basically Musk said that he was just insulting him in a general sense and that the man was not a pedophile
d23 4y ago
> I really don't get where this meme of "impulsive, erratic, hotheaded Musk" comes from His behavior like… every day and the fact that he apparently accidentally just bought a $44B company doesn’t at least let you see where people are coming from?
- philosopher1234 4y ago
  These musk heads are insane. The projection is ridiculous, portraying the characterization of musk as impulsive as a "meme" when they are so deeply steeped in reality denial... drives me insane. They need a serious correction, crypto style.
  - ellyagg 4y ago
    I wish my impulsive decisions led me to become the richest person in the world over the courese of decades.
    - midasz 4y ago
      Being born rich helps the odds somewhat
notfromhere 4y ago
People have Dorsey a lot of shit for being part time CEO of Twitter and Square. Not sure how an even more split CEO is supposed to make things better
randoglando 4y ago
> I really don't get where this meme of "impulsive, erratic, hotheaded Musk" comes from The same guy who tweeted "Funding secured". His tweets about starting boring company, and buying twitter. His email exchanges that are now public. He is VERY impulsive and erratic (maybe not hotheaded). All his tweets on Bitcoin: https://www.rockwelltrading.com/articles/coffee-with-markus/elon-musks-tweets-about-bitcoin/ https://www.rockwelltrading.com/articles/coffee-with-markus/...
maxbond 4y ago
> He hasn't had a business failure yet. I don't know why people say this when stuff goes wrong for him all the time. He literally just failed to get out of this Twitter deal.
- emkoemko 4y ago
  there are people worshipping him like he is Jesus, something is really wrong here, how do people say he has not had a business fail? seriously SpaceX was a failure without the government stepping in at the last moment even he admits it.. look how he scammed the US government to keep Tesla going... i guess these are not "real" failures but from his own words government shouldn't be subsidizing business .... never mind all the failures he has had.
madeofpalk 4y ago
Twitter has always been a failed business, which he bought, so...?

aquova 4y ago

This is my guess as well, but on a bit longer timescale. I think we'll see some noteworthy features over the next year as he tackles low hanging fruit(the reply button for example, although it sounds like that was already in development). This will be followed by a year or two of slow down as they run into social/technological issues, followed by Musk selling off the company.

GMoromisato 4y ago

Maybe. He hasn't given up on self-driving after it turned out to be much harder than he thought. He's still pouring money and time into it. And he hasn't given up on Starlink, even though it is not nearly as profitable as he hoped originally. He's just launching more satellites. And he hasn't given up on Starship even though it is years late. He's doubling down on its development. But I conceded that he might not see Twitter as critical for his ultimate goals. Maybe he'll just sell it to a bigger fool in a few years?

biscottigelato 4y ago
People just don't know Musk. Falcon Heavy was delayed for 8 years. It took 8 years longer. He still got it to work. With all 3 rockets landing simultaneously at the same time. SpaceX also beat Boeing with a smaller budget (NASA gave more to Boeing) in sending astronauts to the ISS. Boeing still is not able to get a successful test launch 2 years after SpaceX got the first astronauts to ISS from US domestic soil. Then there's Tesla, where the Model Y, despite being double the price of a Corolla, outsold the Corolla - https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/10/tesla-model-y-passing-toyota-corolla-as-best-selling-car.html https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/10/tesla-model-y-passing-... If you can stumble into so many achievements by luck. Or just by oh, lean on a few Shotwells and engineers.... then why are companies like Meta and Snap etc in the trash bin? Why is Boeing still stuck on the ground? Why after a half a decade of Tesla killers than nobody is getting killed but legacy automakers (all declining revenue and deliveries).
- doubleunplussed 4y ago
  For what it's worth, two of the Falcon Heavy cores landed simultaneously at the launch site, the third was intended to land on a barge at sea, but came in too hot and crashed into the ocean.
randoglando 4y ago
For every example you stated, there are more for things he has changed his mind on: > https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-snake-charger-elon-musk/ https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-snake-charger-elon-musk/ > https://insideevs.com/news/326869/elon-musk-comments-on-failed-tesla-battery-swap/ https://insideevs.com/news/326869/elon-musk-comments-on-fail... The latter he said was due to low uptake (which is nonsense - you can find YouTube videos of how unfindable the place is). > https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1017149641991680002 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1017149641991680002 More stuff he has given up on.

sawyna 4y ago

I think it's not exactly fair to compare Twitter with his other endeavours. Others are very hard problems. What Musk will do with twitter is figure out an action plan: IMO changing twitter into X will be a viable way of letting it survive. He's gonna chart a course of action that could work and give the reins to someone else for execution. Musk's time is valuable given that he's leading a lot of companies. He's not going to sit around and mull over twitter. The best thing he can do is spend time => chart a plan => hire a capable CEO who is best at execution (Tim Cook for instance). If he spends more time on twitter, his other bets will get hurt disproportionately.

arrrg 4y ago
Twitter is a very hard problem because it’s not a technological or engineering challenge. It’s politics, politics, politics. From all angles and perspectives, in the possibly most annoying way. You have to make so many politics and policy decisions that all have many up- and downsides and that are just plain hard to make. From a technology perspective Twitter is not at all interesting and the rest is just plain annoying. Plus, it’s a small social network, mostly relevant because important people (imagine myself rolling my eyes here) are on it. So doing other social media stuff that rely on network effects? (Messenger, payment, ...) Not really realistic. Not because the technology is infeasible. None of this is a technological challenge. It’s just politics and network effects.