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Random thoughts. 1. I think any effort to figure out rational motives for this buy are in vain. It seems things just pop into his head and if considered a fun

by fleddr 4y ago

Random thoughts. 1. I think any effort to figure out rational motives for this buy are in vain. It seems things just pop into his head and if considered a fun challenge, then why not? A child-like YOLO attitude. 2. Town square. The one thing that keeps Twitter standing is its cultural relevance. It is the town square for the elite (politicians, celebrities, experts). There isn't really anywhere else to go. An exodus to what? The fact that Twitter has almost never made money in its entire history yet is still so culturally relevant is quite telling. 3. Brain drain. I expect the exact opposite. This is the part where Musk thrives and also where he's at his cruelest. He will remove slackers and non-performers without mercy and surround himself with class A players only. Next he'll overload them with near impossible targets and you can't bullshit yourself out of it. You deliver or you're out. I would expect him to run this for a year or so and accomplish more than Twitter's dysfunctional product team did in their entire history. 4. Free speech. His goals are good: focusing on the 80% bandwidth of free speech, but getting there for sure is going to be tricky. This has to be by far the biggest risk factor. Concluding, I'm mildly optimistic. I wouldn't care if Twitter totally sinks, but it's so bad currently that in a way the only way is up.

k__ 4y ago
While I'm no fan of Elon anymore, I think some change is desperately needed for Twitter.
strangattractor 4y ago
Free speech argument is BS. Free speech cannot repay his investors. He plans to launch a TwitCoin or some other scammy type endeavor.
- memish 4y ago
  How do you know?
  - strangattractor 4y ago
    Obviously my opinion but based on some observations. He is not unfamiliar with the fintech space (Paypal). Remember the old joke about printing money - with TwitCoin he would be doing it - literally. Biannce is an investor. He cannot get rid of bots even if he wants to. People do not hand you billions of dollars without some hope of being paid back - even if you are Elon Musk.
    - fleddr 4y ago
      You can't just start a shitcoin and print it, you need to back it up with real assets. See SEC and what happened to Facebook's libre. Getting rid of bots has to be stupidly easy. They start posting the second he tweets. Hundreds of them with the same avatar and slightly misspelled name.
      - strangattractor 4y ago
        OMG: And what assets back up Bitcoin? Dogecoin? XXXCoin. In Tether we trust:) Those are just the stupid obvious bots. Linkedin recently purged half the accounts that had people claiming to work for Apple and AWS. It is far from as easy as you think. It cost pennies per fake account creation. As they say in the QANON universe - do your research.
- ben_w 4y ago
  Does he really need to make it repay anyone, so long as the investors are on board with this?
  - colinmhayes 4y ago
    Twitter has to repay a $13 billion dollar loan at the very least.
  - strangattractor 4y ago
    Yes - if his investors want to ever have anyone trust them to invest money ever again.
    - ben_w 4y ago
      I think you missed the point I’m trying to make, so I’ll rephrase: Do the investors care in this specific case, or did they invest in this plan knowing specifically that his goal was to prefer free speech over profit?
      - strangattractor 4y ago
        Unless there is a rational, defensible argument (which I have not heard) of how a free speech platform can repay the investors (investors require more money back than they put in) I cannot see how an investor cannot care - legally. You have to remember that the money they are investing, in part or in whole, is likely other peoples. It would be naive in my opinion to think otherwise.
        ben_w 4y ago
        > You have to remember that the money they are investing, in part or in whole, is likely other peoples. I think this is the crux of the argument. I don't believe it is, in this specific case, other peoples money. I don't have a full list of investment money sources or terms, but IIRC at least $26 billion of that is his personal cash and personal loans secured against his other Tesla shares, and he did have enough to do it all by himself if his goal was "screw the rules, I have money". While he clearly isn't always aware of the consequences of his choices, it is at least possible that some investors (either in this case, whose names I don't have, or in general) did so equally unwisely just because of his Midas-like reputation, and they don't have such a restriction.
dub 4y ago
Class A players don't work for controlling managers who overload them with near impossible targets. Class A players have plenty of options in tech, and have no need to tolerate having their skills called into question or disrespected by pointy-haired middle managers. When Bill Coughran was asked how he was able to successfully manage so many famously high performers (engineers like Jeff Dean), Bill explained how that caliber of engineer tends to have strong opinions and you basically have to build a whole team around them and give them the freedom to do their thing.
- fleddr 4y ago
  You're wrong. This is exactly how he runs things at Tesla and SpaceX. Class A players are well compensated and love working on challenges that are extreme and/or world relevant. They live and breath what they do. If you're that type of player, Musk will respect you and your opinion.
  - haliskerbas 4y ago
    And all of my talented Stanford/MIT/FAANG/whatever pedigree friends quit Musk companies or would never touch one of his companies. I wonder why.
    - hot_gril 4y ago
      Did they live and breathe what they do? Just working for FAANG or whatever doesn't mean that they do.
    - fleddr 4y ago
      Doesn't matter, somebody else will. I know Musk is widely disliked, but there will never be a shortage of talented engineers wanting to work with him, on interesting challenges, for very high compensation.
      - kenhwang 4y ago
        > I know Musk is widely disliked, but there will never be a shortage of talented engineers wanting to work with him, on interesting challenges, for very high compensation. But how many talented engineers want to work with him, on interesting challenges, for very low compensation. Because historically with his other companies that's what he offers.
IgorPartola 4y ago
To your point number 2: perhaps part of the reason why Twitter is the town square is because it is not super profitable. If it was as chock full of ads as Facebook I think it would cease to be usable. In reality if we want a public square, we ideally want it to be a public utility not a for profit corporation.
- skilled 4y ago
  The irony being that the public square at large is a disease of the people and not the consequence of a specific platform.
- fleddr 4y ago
  I'm not sure if that really is the reason. I do agree though that Twitter's ads are hilariously irrelevant. I would absolutely not want a social network to be ran by any government, no thanks.
  - IgorPartola 4y ago
    Corporation or government is not the only choice. It could be a non-profit. It could be a protocol. It could be run by universities or public libraries.
    - Eisenstein 4y ago
      People fail to see that 'the government' running something important to the public does not have to operate as if it were the DMV. Publicly funded can mean many different things.
      - IgorPartola 4y ago
        Agreed.
esoterica 4y ago
> 3. Brain drain. I expect the exact opposite. This is the part where Musk thrives and also where he's at his cruelest. He will remove slackers and non-performers without mercy and surround himself with class A players only. Next he'll overload them with near impossible targets and you can't bullshit yourself out of it. You deliver or you're out. I would expect him to run this for a year or so and accomplish more than Twitter's dysfunctional product team did in their entire history. Is Musk planning on paying Twitter employees substantially more than other tech companies? Why would any class A player want the privilege of being "overloaded" with work when they can make similar or better money elsewhere and also have better work-life balance? Why do all the Elon worshippers seem to assume that everyone is as enamored him as they are and will happily volunteer to be exploited by him so the world's richest man can get even richer?
- fleddr 4y ago
  You clearly don't know what an A player is. An A player does not have any work life balance. And no, when you make hundreds of thousands of $ per year, you're not "exploited". And yes, quite a few people would love to work for Musk just because he's Musk. Exciting things happen around him.
  - esoterica 4y ago
    > You clearly don't know what an A player is. If you work harder than the B players and don't get paid more than them, then you are not an A player, you are just a gullible rube who lets other people exploit them. A players may or may not work harder than the B players, but they definitely command more money than them. > And no, when you make hundreds of thousands of $ per year, you're not "exploited". Yes you are, if other equally qualified people can make more money working less. > And yes, quite a few people would love to work for Musk just because he's Musk. Musk has a cult of personality and there are some people out there with no self-respect who will let themselves be exploited by him. Those people are not A players, though.
    - fleddr 4y ago
      In your last point, you reveal your true point: you just don't like him. I don't necessarily do either, but that shouldn't get in the way of a rational discussion.
three_seagrass 4y ago
>Town square. The one thing that keeps Twitter standing is its cultural relevance. Social networks rise and fall. Twitter is no more the town square than MySpace, Facebook, Instagram, Reddit, YouTube, TikTok, Mastadon, Snap, LinkedIn, etc. are, and the attempts to redefine them as such are only a means to political end. Musk cares more about making money than anything else - he didn't become a billionaire by being altruistic and he's not going to start now after this investment.
- fleddr 4y ago
  False, none of those other platforms have the town square vibe. They're fragmented boxes of content and conversation.
  - three_seagrass 4y ago
    By that same logic, tweets are fragments of content and conversation.
- perrygeo 4y ago
  Agree that Twitter is no town square. Disagree that Musk cares more about making money. Given his financial position in this whole ordeal, it's hard to see how he comes out without a loss. Power and influence over political speech though... priceless.
recursv_thnkng 4y ago
I expect #3 to be true to an extent. Elon is very good at attracting very high performing, industry leading engineers to join him but they never last long. He burns out the high performers just as much as the low performers.
peppertree 4y ago
"Class A" players answer call to rid the world of fossil fuel and explore deep space. There's nothing meaningful or productive about Twitter.
- s1artibartfast 4y ago
  More obviously part of his work as CEO and owner will be to develop a meaning and provide Direction. Maybe he can get people to drink the Kool-Aid that Twitter is and well will be the future of productive Democratic conversation. If I actually believe that, I would want to work there
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
batch12 4y ago
I'd work for twitter if they were less driven by political ideology. Maybe I am wrong, but it looks from the outside that one would have to walk the thought line to succeed in many of these west coast companies. Edit: If I am wrong (possible), help me understand why.
- fleddr 4y ago
  You're entirely right, but it's not a popular thing to say in this forum.
- mapme 4y ago
  IME for engineering at these companies is that the social or political side of things is mostly irrelevant for Eng. Some folks want to be involved in internal activism but it’s easy to ignore and basically never comes up in Eng work. Ppl just avoid politics like normies and talk about average stuff like “how’s your kid?” not “let’s go to that protest”. Lots of good smart technical peeps more likely to nerd out on cool tech stuff than be political.
aclatuts 4y ago
My belief is marketing. Toyota spends 1.3 billion in marketing world wide. Tesla has no marketing team but Elon himself is the marketing engine on Twitter. With Elon owning Twitter he can automate the marketing for whatever companies he runs now and in the future. Also he can invisibly or visibly promote his own tweets. On top of that the company makes 5 billion a year. I think Elon probably has a very techy view that marketing is bad. And if he has to do it, he will do it in his own weird way with 100% control of how it will be done.
RC_ITR 4y ago
>His goals are good: focusing on the 80% bandwidth of free speech, but getting there for sure is going to be tricky. This has to be by far the biggest risk factor. What I think will be the real litmus test is Azealia Banks, whose account currently remains suspended [0] She was banned for allegedly transphobic tweets [1] which were political speech by any reasonable definition (she was banned because the way she said it, not the content of the idea). Why I don't think she'll be allowed back is because she has a personal relationship with Musk/Grimes where she sends that same kind of hate their way. But like I said, interesting litmus test. [0]https://twitter.com/Azealiaishere https://twitter.com/Azealiaishere [1]https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2020/10/14/azealia-banks-suspended-twitter-transphobia-gender-affirmation-surgery-covid-farmers-trump/ https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2020/10/14/azealia-banks-suspende...
- fleddr 4y ago
  The trans debate is extremely polarizing and aggressive on both sides. I'll leave it at that. I think the real litmus test is a possible Trump unban. That's would be earth shattering.
  - s1artibartfast 4y ago
    It's hard to imagine the Trump ban staying given what he was actually banned for. I'm not a Trumper but he tweeted: "To all of those who have asked, I will not be going to the Inauguration on January 20th.” Twitter interpreted this to be an incitement for terrorist attack on the inauguration and banned him, the sitting president of the US, for that. It is hard to imagine any platform with a semblance of free speech stand behind that kind of logic. If you are willing to read into statements that deeply, any speech is bannable. https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2020/suspension https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2020/suspensio...
    - freejazz 4y ago
      That's pretty much entirely devoid of the context of everything else he tweeted and the rest of his actions and you can pretend that none of that matters but it obviously does.
namuol 4y ago
Regarding #3: I think the stated missions of e.g. SpaceX and Tesla are the main draw of talent. The rest is loyalty, without which most talent would leave for less a less stressful work environment. At the very least I think we can expect much higher turnover and a distinctly younger talent pool. Sounds almost good if you don’t have concerns about the chaotic whims of ruthless and impatient leadership.
wrycoder 4y ago
> It is the town square for the elite (politicians, celebrities, experts) Only for a subset of those elites who conform to certain ideological views. The rest have been actively censored or banned from Twitter. > There isn't really anywhere else to go. And that has been the problem for those with non-preferred views. Twitter clones have been actively denigrated and, in some cases, forced to shut down. IMO, Twitter needs to add up and down voting, like HN has. Open discourse is not for the faint of heart. Never was - it can get your adrenaline up and teach you self control.

by fleddr 4y ago

k__ 4y ago

While I'm no fan of Elon anymore, I think some change is desperately needed for Twitter.

strangattractor 4y ago

Free speech argument is BS. Free speech cannot repay his investors. He plans to launch a TwitCoin or some other scammy type endeavor.

memish 4y ago
How do you know?
- strangattractor 4y ago
  Obviously my opinion but based on some observations. He is not unfamiliar with the fintech space (Paypal). Remember the old joke about printing money - with TwitCoin he would be doing it - literally. Biannce is an investor. He cannot get rid of bots even if he wants to. People do not hand you billions of dollars without some hope of being paid back - even if you are Elon Musk.
  - fleddr 4y ago
    You can't just start a shitcoin and print it, you need to back it up with real assets. See SEC and what happened to Facebook's libre. Getting rid of bots has to be stupidly easy. They start posting the second he tweets. Hundreds of them with the same avatar and slightly misspelled name.
    - strangattractor 4y ago
      OMG: And what assets back up Bitcoin? Dogecoin? XXXCoin. In Tether we trust:) Those are just the stupid obvious bots. Linkedin recently purged half the accounts that had people claiming to work for Apple and AWS. It is far from as easy as you think. It cost pennies per fake account creation. As they say in the QANON universe - do your research.
ben_w 4y ago
Does he really need to make it repay anyone, so long as the investors are on board with this?
- colinmhayes 4y ago
  Twitter has to repay a $13 billion dollar loan at the very least.
- strangattractor 4y ago
  Yes - if his investors want to ever have anyone trust them to invest money ever again.
  - ben_w 4y ago
    I think you missed the point I’m trying to make, so I’ll rephrase: Do the investors care in this specific case, or did they invest in this plan knowing specifically that his goal was to prefer free speech over profit?
    - strangattractor 4y ago
      Unless there is a rational, defensible argument (which I have not heard) of how a free speech platform can repay the investors (investors require more money back than they put in) I cannot see how an investor cannot care - legally. You have to remember that the money they are investing, in part or in whole, is likely other peoples. It would be naive in my opinion to think otherwise.
      - ben_w 4y ago
        > You have to remember that the money they are investing, in part or in whole, is likely other peoples. I think this is the crux of the argument. I don't believe it is, in this specific case, other peoples money. I don't have a full list of investment money sources or terms, but IIRC at least $26 billion of that is his personal cash and personal loans secured against his other Tesla shares, and he did have enough to do it all by himself if his goal was "screw the rules, I have money". While he clearly isn't always aware of the consequences of his choices, it is at least possible that some investors (either in this case, whose names I don't have, or in general) did so equally unwisely just because of his Midas-like reputation, and they don't have such a restriction.

dub 4y ago

Class A players don't work for controlling managers who overload them with near impossible targets. Class A players have plenty of options in tech, and have no need to tolerate having their skills called into question or disrespected by pointy-haired middle managers. When Bill Coughran was asked how he was able to successfully manage so many famously high performers (engineers like Jeff Dean), Bill explained how that caliber of engineer tends to have strong opinions and you basically have to build a whole team around them and give them the freedom to do their thing.

fleddr 4y ago
You're wrong. This is exactly how he runs things at Tesla and SpaceX. Class A players are well compensated and love working on challenges that are extreme and/or world relevant. They live and breath what they do. If you're that type of player, Musk will respect you and your opinion.
- haliskerbas 4y ago
  And all of my talented Stanford/MIT/FAANG/whatever pedigree friends quit Musk companies or would never touch one of his companies. I wonder why.
  - hot_gril 4y ago
    Did they live and breathe what they do? Just working for FAANG or whatever doesn't mean that they do.
  - fleddr 4y ago
    Doesn't matter, somebody else will. I know Musk is widely disliked, but there will never be a shortage of talented engineers wanting to work with him, on interesting challenges, for very high compensation.
    - kenhwang 4y ago
      > I know Musk is widely disliked, but there will never be a shortage of talented engineers wanting to work with him, on interesting challenges, for very high compensation. But how many talented engineers want to work with him, on interesting challenges, for very low compensation. Because historically with his other companies that's what he offers.

IgorPartola 4y ago

To your point number 2: perhaps part of the reason why Twitter is the town square is because it is not super profitable. If it was as chock full of ads as Facebook I think it would cease to be usable. In reality if we want a public square, we ideally want it to be a public utility not a for profit corporation.

skilled 4y ago
The irony being that the public square at large is a disease of the people and not the consequence of a specific platform.
fleddr 4y ago
I'm not sure if that really is the reason. I do agree though that Twitter's ads are hilariously irrelevant. I would absolutely not want a social network to be ran by any government, no thanks.
- IgorPartola 4y ago
  Corporation or government is not the only choice. It could be a non-profit. It could be a protocol. It could be run by universities or public libraries.
  - Eisenstein 4y ago
    People fail to see that 'the government' running something important to the public does not have to operate as if it were the DMV. Publicly funded can mean many different things.
    - IgorPartola 4y ago
      Agreed.

esoterica 4y ago

> 3. Brain drain. I expect the exact opposite. This is the part where Musk thrives and also where he's at his cruelest. He will remove slackers and non-performers without mercy and surround himself with class A players only. Next he'll overload them with near impossible targets and you can't bullshit yourself out of it. You deliver or you're out. I would expect him to run this for a year or so and accomplish more than Twitter's dysfunctional product team did in their entire history. Is Musk planning on paying Twitter employees substantially more than other tech companies? Why would any class A player want the privilege of being "overloaded" with work when they can make similar or better money elsewhere and also have better work-life balance? Why do all the Elon worshippers seem to assume that everyone is as enamored him as they are and will happily volunteer to be exploited by him so the world's richest man can get even richer?

fleddr 4y ago
You clearly don't know what an A player is. An A player does not have any work life balance. And no, when you make hundreds of thousands of $ per year, you're not "exploited". And yes, quite a few people would love to work for Musk just because he's Musk. Exciting things happen around him.
- esoterica 4y ago
  > You clearly don't know what an A player is. If you work harder than the B players and don't get paid more than them, then you are not an A player, you are just a gullible rube who lets other people exploit them. A players may or may not work harder than the B players, but they definitely command more money than them. > And no, when you make hundreds of thousands of $ per year, you're not "exploited". Yes you are, if other equally qualified people can make more money working less. > And yes, quite a few people would love to work for Musk just because he's Musk. Musk has a cult of personality and there are some people out there with no self-respect who will let themselves be exploited by him. Those people are not A players, though.
  - fleddr 4y ago
    In your last point, you reveal your true point: you just don't like him. I don't necessarily do either, but that shouldn't get in the way of a rational discussion.

three_seagrass 4y ago

>Town square. The one thing that keeps Twitter standing is its cultural relevance. Social networks rise and fall. Twitter is no more the town square than MySpace, Facebook, Instagram, Reddit, YouTube, TikTok, Mastadon, Snap, LinkedIn, etc. are, and the attempts to redefine them as such are only a means to political end. Musk cares more about making money than anything else - he didn't become a billionaire by being altruistic and he's not going to start now after this investment.

fleddr 4y ago
False, none of those other platforms have the town square vibe. They're fragmented boxes of content and conversation.
- three_seagrass 4y ago
  By that same logic, tweets are fragments of content and conversation.
perrygeo 4y ago
Agree that Twitter is no town square. Disagree that Musk cares more about making money. Given his financial position in this whole ordeal, it's hard to see how he comes out without a loss. Power and influence over political speech though... priceless.

recursv_thnkng 4y ago

I expect #3 to be true to an extent. Elon is very good at attracting very high performing, industry leading engineers to join him but they never last long. He burns out the high performers just as much as the low performers.

peppertree 4y ago

"Class A" players answer call to rid the world of fossil fuel and explore deep space. There's nothing meaningful or productive about Twitter.

s1artibartfast 4y ago
More obviously part of his work as CEO and owner will be to develop a meaning and provide Direction. Maybe he can get people to drink the Kool-Aid that Twitter is and well will be the future of productive Democratic conversation. If I actually believe that, I would want to work there

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

batch12 4y ago

I'd work for twitter if they were less driven by political ideology. Maybe I am wrong, but it looks from the outside that one would have to walk the thought line to succeed in many of these west coast companies. Edit: If I am wrong (possible), help me understand why.

fleddr 4y ago
You're entirely right, but it's not a popular thing to say in this forum.
mapme 4y ago
IME for engineering at these companies is that the social or political side of things is mostly irrelevant for Eng. Some folks want to be involved in internal activism but it’s easy to ignore and basically never comes up in Eng work. Ppl just avoid politics like normies and talk about average stuff like “how’s your kid?” not “let’s go to that protest”. Lots of good smart technical peeps more likely to nerd out on cool tech stuff than be political.

aclatuts 4y ago

My belief is marketing. Toyota spends 1.3 billion in marketing world wide. Tesla has no marketing team but Elon himself is the marketing engine on Twitter. With Elon owning Twitter he can automate the marketing for whatever companies he runs now and in the future. Also he can invisibly or visibly promote his own tweets. On top of that the company makes 5 billion a year. I think Elon probably has a very techy view that marketing is bad. And if he has to do it, he will do it in his own weird way with 100% control of how it will be done.

RC_ITR 4y ago

>His goals are good: focusing on the 80% bandwidth of free speech, but getting there for sure is going to be tricky. This has to be by far the biggest risk factor. What I think will be the real litmus test is Azealia Banks, whose account currently remains suspended [0] She was banned for allegedly transphobic tweets [1] which were political speech by any reasonable definition (she was banned because the way she said it, not the content of the idea). Why I don't think she'll be allowed back is because she has a personal relationship with Musk/Grimes where she sends that same kind of hate their way. But like I said, interesting litmus test. [0]https://twitter.com/Azealiaishere https://twitter.com/Azealiaishere [1]https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2020/10/14/azealia-banks-suspended-twitter-transphobia-gender-affirmation-surgery-covid-farmers-trump/ https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2020/10/14/azealia-banks-suspende...

fleddr 4y ago
The trans debate is extremely polarizing and aggressive on both sides. I'll leave it at that. I think the real litmus test is a possible Trump unban. That's would be earth shattering.
- s1artibartfast 4y ago
  It's hard to imagine the Trump ban staying given what he was actually banned for. I'm not a Trumper but he tweeted: "To all of those who have asked, I will not be going to the Inauguration on January 20th.” Twitter interpreted this to be an incitement for terrorist attack on the inauguration and banned him, the sitting president of the US, for that. It is hard to imagine any platform with a semblance of free speech stand behind that kind of logic. If you are willing to read into statements that deeply, any speech is bannable. https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2020/suspension https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2020/suspensio...
  - freejazz 4y ago
    That's pretty much entirely devoid of the context of everything else he tweeted and the rest of his actions and you can pretend that none of that matters but it obviously does.

namuol 4y ago

Regarding #3: I think the stated missions of e.g. SpaceX and Tesla are the main draw of talent. The rest is loyalty, without which most talent would leave for less a less stressful work environment. At the very least I think we can expect much higher turnover and a distinctly younger talent pool. Sounds almost good if you don’t have concerns about the chaotic whims of ruthless and impatient leadership.

wrycoder 4y ago

> It is the town square for the elite (politicians, celebrities, experts) Only for a subset of those elites who conform to certain ideological views. The rest have been actively censored or banned from Twitter. > There isn't really anywhere else to go. And that has been the problem for those with non-preferred views. Twitter clones have been actively denigrated and, in some cases, forced to shut down. IMO, Twitter needs to add up and down voting, like HN has. Open discourse is not for the faint of heart. Never was - it can get your adrenaline up and teach you self control.