3 ms·

The EU may let them back in, but not with all the special deals they had before. First on the list is they would need to drop Pounds for Euros.

orf 4y ago
I expect if you rephrased the asked question to include that the answers would be very, very different. I’d love to rejoin the EU, but dropping the pound to do so? That’s a higher price than you might think.
- jemmyw 4y ago
  Why? It's just a currency. I'm from the UK, I think I had the same view. But now, having lived in several different countries, it just doesn't matter what currency I use. If I were in the EU then the Euro would be the convenient choice. And if it's about interest rate setting I think as one of the top economies the UK wouldn't have any issues. Don't stick with the pound out of sentimentality. It's a liability.
  - orf 4y ago
    I’m not saying the view is correct or not, I’m just saying that I believe it to be the case in general. It’s a source of part of the national identity. And, even if right now I’m not correct and most people don’t care, if this became the condition for joining then anyone who opposes the EU would make this a division issue, highlighting that it’s part of the national identity, oldest currency still in use, how can we sacrifice that etc etc. Then suddenly people would care.
  - SilkRoadie 4y ago
    The Euro has a single monetary policy. The benefit is less trade friction. The draw back is that monetary policy may not fit well with the general economy. This is what Greece experienced, the loss of currency control made other European businesses a lot more competitive.
  - sweezyjeezy 4y ago
    I am pro EU but anti-Euro, it's not just sentimentality. If you are not aware, you should read about the Eurozone debt crisis of 2009. The Euro ties the economies of 19 companies that demonstrably should not all be joined. Germany and Greece having the same central bank just doesn't make sense, and it should not have happened.
    - jemmyw 4y ago
      As per my reply elsewhere: And yet in the last few weeks the UK government managed to cause a run on sterling. If they were using the Euro then that wouldn't have happened / limited effect and Mrs Truss could potentially have implemented her tax changes. Not that I support that, just pointing out there are also downsides to a sovereign monetary policy. I personally think that being in the bigger club, the EU trade zone and Euro, would be better for Britain. Greece is a cautionary tale, but not necessarily a currency one. Yes, they had limited options after everything blew up, but they were heading in that direction because they kept taking loans and the loans kept being given. If they had been able to devalue their currency its not actually clear that would have solved the problem - doing so also requires tight fiscal policy. Iceland did it, with a tight fiscal policy.
  - kyboren 4y ago
    Because sovereign monetary policy is a much-underappreciated but absolutely key element of sovereignty. Joining a monetary union and ceding independent control of monetary policy is extremely risky, especially when that monetary union is not accompanied by large scale intra-union fiscal transfers (i.e. on maybe 10x the magnitude existing in the EU or Eurozone). What happened to Greece is a cautionary tale, and Britons would be wise to reject joining the Euro absent major political and fiscal reforms.
    - jemmyw 4y ago
      And yet in the last few weeks the UK government managed to cause a run on sterling. If they were using the Euro then that wouldn't have happened / limited effect and Mrs Truss could potentially have implemented her tax changes. Not that I support that, just pointing out there are also downsides to a sovereign monetary policy. I personally think that being in the bigger club, the EU trade zone and Euro, would be better for Britain. Greece is a cautionary tale, but not necessarily a currency one. Yes, they had limited options after everything blew up, but they were heading in that direction because they kept taking loans and the loans kept being given. If they had been able to devalue their currency its not actually clear that would have solved the problem - doing so also requires tight fiscal policy. Iceland did it, with a tight fiscal policy.
- yrgulation 4y ago
  No one would make the uk join the euro. Sure it has to promise it will, but it cant and wont be forced.
- rvieira 4y ago
  Adopting the Euro is literally one third of the Copenhagen criteria.
- rich_sasha 4y ago
  I agree with your thinking. The other question would be what is in the EUs interest. Much as I like the Euro, it hasn't gone to plan. I suspect if the EU could back out of it gently, it would - but it can't. It even bailed out Greece to prevent the idea of a country leaving the Eurozone. Everyone who doesn't have the Euro now is either committed to getting it eventually, or has a very special exception, like the UK did. The EU might not want to, therefore, write a side letter for a new applicant, letting them pick and mix on Euro membership, as it might make the single currency more optional and less unremovable. That said, when there is a will, there is a way: the pound could be pegged to the Euro, exchange rate volatility dropped, and eventually you could have Euros and Pounds be like Pounds and Scottish Pounds (which are separate but fungible). If there is a will...
nickff 4y ago
The EU has 27 member countries, only 19 of which use the Euro; maintaining a sovereign currency doesn't seem to be a 'special deal'. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone
- Svip 4y ago
  Technically, new EU members are required to join the Eurozone at some point. Only Denmark (and - before Brexit - the UK) have an explicit opt-out. But Sweden, which does not have an opt-out, have yet to join the Euro as well, and has no plans of doing so. So I'm not sure about the exact rules here.
  - yrgulation 4y ago
    The rules are you have to but when you want, are allowed, or the time is right. Like sweden no one is made to commit to a date.
  - yokaze 4y ago
    I think, it is reasonably explained here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_the_eurozone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_the_eurozone They are required to adopt the Euro, as soon as they fulfill the Convergence criteria Those convergence criteria include "Compatibility of legislation", and Sweden simply doesn't make their laws compatible. (Details here: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/economy-finance/ip179_en.pdf https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/economy-financ...) In summary, they have to join, if they are compliant. For that they have to pass laws, and they chose not to. So, it isn't quite as mandatory as some people paint it. To quote from the report: > The Swedish authorities are invited to remedy the abovementioned incompatibilities
  - Ekaros 4y ago
    And Denmark is interesting case as they have opt-out, but they are still pegged to Euro...
tuatoru 4y ago
The UK will never ask, because one ironclad requirement will be adopting the EU's financial transparency laws. Avoiding those laws was the reason for Brexit in the first place. London is the money laundering capital of the world.[1] 1. 2017: https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-finance/london-the-money-laundering-capital-of-the-world https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-finance/lon... 2014: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/london-is-money-laundering-capital-5x7hcspf9wx https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/london-is-money-launderin... 2022: https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/world-int/21280-why-is-london-money-laundering-capital-of-the-world.html https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/world-int/21280-why-is-london-m...
- fmajid 4y ago
  I suspect Dubai's taken over since the Ukraine war and Russian oligarchs being sanctioned (even when those who donated to the Tory party were given plenty of advance notice to shelter their assets with a nod and a wink). That spooked all other shady money, and they decamped to the UAE where dirty money is welcomed with open arms. After all, before the discovery of oil, the economy of Dubai was based on smuggling gold to India.
pvinis 4y ago
that would be great.
unity1001 4y ago
> The EU may let them back in, but not with all the special deals they had before That's only the bureaucratic angle that is related to the Eu rules. A country joining must be confirmed with referendums in other countries for it to happen. And the UK will never get in because of that. For it to get in, the UK must totally change, leave the delirious cultural and political adherence to its long-gone empire behind, and prove that it is a modern, civilized neighbor to everyone. And that would take up to 50 years and more, if it ever happens.
rich_sasha 4y ago
By then we will all be using cryptocurrencies anyway /s

orf 4y ago

I expect if you rephrased the asked question to include that the answers would be very, very different. I’d love to rejoin the EU, but dropping the pound to do so? That’s a higher price than you might think.

jemmyw 4y ago
Why? It's just a currency. I'm from the UK, I think I had the same view. But now, having lived in several different countries, it just doesn't matter what currency I use. If I were in the EU then the Euro would be the convenient choice. And if it's about interest rate setting I think as one of the top economies the UK wouldn't have any issues. Don't stick with the pound out of sentimentality. It's a liability.
- orf 4y ago
  I’m not saying the view is correct or not, I’m just saying that I believe it to be the case in general. It’s a source of part of the national identity. And, even if right now I’m not correct and most people don’t care, if this became the condition for joining then anyone who opposes the EU would make this a division issue, highlighting that it’s part of the national identity, oldest currency still in use, how can we sacrifice that etc etc. Then suddenly people would care.
- SilkRoadie 4y ago
  The Euro has a single monetary policy. The benefit is less trade friction. The draw back is that monetary policy may not fit well with the general economy. This is what Greece experienced, the loss of currency control made other European businesses a lot more competitive.
- sweezyjeezy 4y ago
  I am pro EU but anti-Euro, it's not just sentimentality. If you are not aware, you should read about the Eurozone debt crisis of 2009. The Euro ties the economies of 19 companies that demonstrably should not all be joined. Germany and Greece having the same central bank just doesn't make sense, and it should not have happened.
  - jemmyw 4y ago
    As per my reply elsewhere: And yet in the last few weeks the UK government managed to cause a run on sterling. If they were using the Euro then that wouldn't have happened / limited effect and Mrs Truss could potentially have implemented her tax changes. Not that I support that, just pointing out there are also downsides to a sovereign monetary policy. I personally think that being in the bigger club, the EU trade zone and Euro, would be better for Britain. Greece is a cautionary tale, but not necessarily a currency one. Yes, they had limited options after everything blew up, but they were heading in that direction because they kept taking loans and the loans kept being given. If they had been able to devalue their currency its not actually clear that would have solved the problem - doing so also requires tight fiscal policy. Iceland did it, with a tight fiscal policy.
- kyboren 4y ago
  Because sovereign monetary policy is a much-underappreciated but absolutely key element of sovereignty. Joining a monetary union and ceding independent control of monetary policy is extremely risky, especially when that monetary union is not accompanied by large scale intra-union fiscal transfers (i.e. on maybe 10x the magnitude existing in the EU or Eurozone). What happened to Greece is a cautionary tale, and Britons would be wise to reject joining the Euro absent major political and fiscal reforms.
  - jemmyw 4y ago
    And yet in the last few weeks the UK government managed to cause a run on sterling. If they were using the Euro then that wouldn't have happened / limited effect and Mrs Truss could potentially have implemented her tax changes. Not that I support that, just pointing out there are also downsides to a sovereign monetary policy. I personally think that being in the bigger club, the EU trade zone and Euro, would be better for Britain. Greece is a cautionary tale, but not necessarily a currency one. Yes, they had limited options after everything blew up, but they were heading in that direction because they kept taking loans and the loans kept being given. If they had been able to devalue their currency its not actually clear that would have solved the problem - doing so also requires tight fiscal policy. Iceland did it, with a tight fiscal policy.
yrgulation 4y ago
No one would make the uk join the euro. Sure it has to promise it will, but it cant and wont be forced.
rvieira 4y ago
Adopting the Euro is literally one third of the Copenhagen criteria.
rich_sasha 4y ago
I agree with your thinking. The other question would be what is in the EUs interest. Much as I like the Euro, it hasn't gone to plan. I suspect if the EU could back out of it gently, it would - but it can't. It even bailed out Greece to prevent the idea of a country leaving the Eurozone. Everyone who doesn't have the Euro now is either committed to getting it eventually, or has a very special exception, like the UK did. The EU might not want to, therefore, write a side letter for a new applicant, letting them pick and mix on Euro membership, as it might make the single currency more optional and less unremovable. That said, when there is a will, there is a way: the pound could be pegged to the Euro, exchange rate volatility dropped, and eventually you could have Euros and Pounds be like Pounds and Scottish Pounds (which are separate but fungible). If there is a will...

nickff 4y ago

The EU has 27 member countries, only 19 of which use the Euro; maintaining a sovereign currency doesn't seem to be a 'special deal'. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone

Svip 4y ago
Technically, new EU members are required to join the Eurozone at some point. Only Denmark (and - before Brexit - the UK) have an explicit opt-out. But Sweden, which does not have an opt-out, have yet to join the Euro as well, and has no plans of doing so. So I'm not sure about the exact rules here.
- yrgulation 4y ago
  The rules are you have to but when you want, are allowed, or the time is right. Like sweden no one is made to commit to a date.
- yokaze 4y ago
  I think, it is reasonably explained here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_the_eurozone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_the_eurozone They are required to adopt the Euro, as soon as they fulfill the Convergence criteria Those convergence criteria include "Compatibility of legislation", and Sweden simply doesn't make their laws compatible. (Details here: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/economy-finance/ip179_en.pdf https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/economy-financ...) In summary, they have to join, if they are compliant. For that they have to pass laws, and they chose not to. So, it isn't quite as mandatory as some people paint it. To quote from the report: > The Swedish authorities are invited to remedy the abovementioned incompatibilities
- Ekaros 4y ago
  And Denmark is interesting case as they have opt-out, but they are still pegged to Euro...

tuatoru 4y ago

The UK will never ask, because one ironclad requirement will be adopting the EU's financial transparency laws. Avoiding those laws was the reason for Brexit in the first place. London is the money laundering capital of the world.[1] 1. 2017: https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-finance/london-the-money-laundering-capital-of-the-world https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-finance/lon... 2014: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/london-is-money-laundering-capital-5x7hcspf9wx https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/london-is-money-launderin... 2022: https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/world-int/21280-why-is-london-money-laundering-capital-of-the-world.html https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/world-int/21280-why-is-london-m...

fmajid 4y ago
I suspect Dubai's taken over since the Ukraine war and Russian oligarchs being sanctioned (even when those who donated to the Tory party were given plenty of advance notice to shelter their assets with a nod and a wink). That spooked all other shady money, and they decamped to the UAE where dirty money is welcomed with open arms. After all, before the discovery of oil, the economy of Dubai was based on smuggling gold to India.

pvinis 4y ago

that would be great.

unity1001 4y ago

> The EU may let them back in, but not with all the special deals they had before That's only the bureaucratic angle that is related to the Eu rules. A country joining must be confirmed with referendums in other countries for it to happen. And the UK will never get in because of that. For it to get in, the UK must totally change, leave the delirious cultural and political adherence to its long-gone empire behind, and prove that it is a modern, civilized neighbor to everyone. And that would take up to 50 years and more, if it ever happens.

rich_sasha 4y ago

By then we will all be using cryptocurrencies anyway /s