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The odds are that Twitter will probably be dead in a year. He'll bring on a few yes-men executives that'll applaud him when he guts development and then when ev
by fzeroracer 4y ago
The odds are that Twitter will probably be dead in a year. He'll bring on a few yes-men executives that'll applaud him when he guts development and then when everything grinds to a halt they'll catch the blame. Especially since he'll probably force something like integrated NFTs on a whim.
Unlike Facebook and how it's captured an older audience that's relative inelastic to moving to other platforms, I don't see people sticking around on Twitter nor do I see employees staying around either.
- peterangular 4y ago> nor do I see employees staying around either. With major members of the C-suite turning over and his outright public aggression toward them I'd sure be concerned if I worked there.
- pram 4y agoTwitter already has integrated NFTs lol
- Flatcircle 4y agoI'd argue that because twitter is the simplest social network it will last the longest. Just a place to post a short amount of characters. That's why he wanted to buy it.
- charlieyu1 4y agoYou can like or hate Elon Musk but it is not going to happen. It is really hard for tech giants to die, if companies that were run way worse didn't die, Twitter is not going to die. And he has experience of running tech companies anyway.
- fzeroracer 4y agoA social media company is a very different beast from a tech company, and very easy to quickly run into the ground. We've seen other platforms die very quickly because they institute things that chase off a bulk of users.
- Nomentatus 4y agoNot so different, perhaps, from his previous company PayPal however. There, detecting fraud with a hybrid AI/human examiner model was solution they found for that central difficult task. Unearthing bots and nation-state actors may not be too different, and Tesla AI is world-leading. I understand that's not all that goes into managing a social network, but if he mostly gets out of the way other than bot-blocking, as seems to be his intent, he might be okay.
- fzeroracer 4y ago'Paypal' was literally falling apart and Musk had to be ousted and replaced because he was destroying the company. It was Peter Thiel that took over, renamed it Paypal and it became the success as we know it today. So if your barometer of success is Paypal, then Twitter is doomed.
- Nomentatus 4y agoI think PayPal survived. Without any course correction so far as I know. Whose idea the hybrid solution was I don't know - it's not impossible it was Thiel since Palantir is a suspiciously similar hybrid solution (or a series of them), in part. But more likely a third party. Witnessing the success of the hybrid solution up close would be enough to impress both of them with the lesson.
- wellthatsawrap1 4y agoThis man is building the infrastructure to colonize Mars. Tell me more about how much harder it is to run a social media company.
- phi-y 4y agoI would believe this comment if it was some other billionaire. Elon Musk is a talented executive for tech companies. He got his start as a founding employee for paypal and moved onto tesla, which is essentially a tech company that makes cars
- oxplot 4y ago> The odds are that Twitter will probably be dead in a year. And that's based on what exactly? > He'll bring on a few yes-men executives that'll applaud him Again, based on what? Now here's a prediction actually based on Musk's past perf: He'll bring in people who get shit done, and get it done fast. Twitter will achieve things everyone says is stupid, ridiculous and impossible now as he's done in the past 20 years with Tesla and SpaceX. That will be followed by a large swath of copy-cats who will try to replicate it to no avail.
- underwater 4y agoYou're assuming that the attributes that lead to success in those companies will also carry across. Social media is not just an engineering problem. Elon's personal brand and his temperament is a massive liability for something like Twitter.
- oxplot 4y ago> Social media is not just an engineering problem. What you makes you think Tesla is just an engineering problem? You have regulation, laws protecting dealers, government negotiations, lobbying (and that's just from top of my head) and not to forget, large distributed software and hardware infrastructure SpaceX: strong relationships with customers, dealing with lots of government and private companies that are paying you millions of dollars, etc. > You're assuming that the attributes that lead to success in those companies will also carry across. There are many attributes across the board that is needed to succeed in a scale of those companies. Even in Musk's existing companies, he's most definitly not suited to do certain tasks. It's well known and that Gwen Shotwell is a huge part of SpaceX'es success to date. I agree that social network requires its own area of knowledge and experience, but Musk isn't literally doing all this by himself. He attracts talent and that's the key.
- lupire 4y agoThat worked when Musk bought a functional company and added his brand of PR on top. Not for saving a company in trouble.
- lazyeye 4y agoWhats your track record compared to Elon's such that we should trust your judgement?
- ergocoder 4y ago> The odds are that Twitter will probably be dead in a year. Weird claim. Twitter has been mismanaging for years. I doubt Elon could do worse.