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We don’t, and you have no numbers to back that up. When my blind grandma can sit in a car and it drives her from Paris to Rome though the Alps in winter, then m

by xref 4y ago

We don’t, and you have no numbers to back that up. When my blind grandma can sit in a car and it drives her from Paris to Rome though the Alps in winter, then maybe. Keep in mind this thread’s premise is us developing an intelligence that can navigate space and maintain all requirements of that for millennia. Not driving a couple miles on a clear stretch of highway.

unsupp0rted 4y ago
About navigating space, I have no comment, but about driving a car safely: My non-blind and somewhat functional 90-year old uncle can sit in a car and drive it quite legally at the moment. I'm pretty sure self-driving cars are less dangerous on the roads than he is, but we're not willing to test that assumption.
google234123 4y ago
Nice straw man
ben_w 4y ago
> When my blind grandma can sit in a car and it drives her from Paris to Rome though the Alps in winter, then maybe. Your standard for "maybe" exceeds the abilities of many humans. AFAICT, the statistics for fatal accidents do exist, and suggest that car AI may be marginally better than average humans — the caveats to that include at the very least (1) it's within the margin of error; (2) that includes drunks, dangerously tired, teenagers, and people like my mother and grandmother when their Alzheimer's was in the early stages; and (3) I don't trust the impartiality of the source. But the stats do exist.
- simiones 4y ago
  The stats for self-driving cars also have other caveats: they are only deployed in extremely favorable conditions (areas with very little rain and no snow), and the vast majority have human safety drivers for added verification. Also, many self-driving cars are not so much unsafe as occasionally bad at the basics of driving in certain scenarios - such as massively over/under-steering in intersections, leading to the need to maneuver in traffic (I've especially seen this in Tesla FSD videos). Also, > Your standard for "maybe" exceeds the abilities of many humans. I'm very curious what human driver is simply unable to do that task. In fact, the vast majority of human drivers could do this task, but 0 current self-driving cars could even attempt it.
  - ben_w 4y ago
    > they are only deployed in extremely favorable conditions (areas with very little rain and no snow) I've heard a lot of conflicting reports about this with regard to Tesla's AI, but regardless your point is sound, my list is not exhaustive. > not so much unsafe as occasionally bad at the basics of driving in certain scenarios Indeed. It's one of the counterintuitive things about machine intelligence in general, that it can be wildly superhuman in domains that humans consider challenging while also being utterly pathetic in domains we consider trivial. > I'm very curious what human driver is simply unable to do that task. In fact, the vast majority of human drivers could do this task, but 0 current self-driving cars could even attempt it. A quick google suggested that the roads in the alps are often closed in the winter by the police because of the snow, so hopefully in such conditions the answer is "100% of humans cannot do this" :)

by xref 4y ago

unsupp0rted 4y ago

About navigating space, I have no comment, but about driving a car safely: My non-blind and somewhat functional 90-year old uncle can sit in a car and drive it quite legally at the moment. I'm pretty sure self-driving cars are less dangerous on the roads than he is, but we're not willing to test that assumption.

google234123 4y ago

Nice straw man

ben_w 4y ago

> When my blind grandma can sit in a car and it drives her from Paris to Rome though the Alps in winter, then maybe. Your standard for "maybe" exceeds the abilities of many humans. AFAICT, the statistics for fatal accidents do exist, and suggest that car AI may be marginally better than average humans — the caveats to that include at the very least (1) it's within the margin of error; (2) that includes drunks, dangerously tired, teenagers, and people like my mother and grandmother when their Alzheimer's was in the early stages; and (3) I don't trust the impartiality of the source. But the stats do exist.

simiones 4y ago
The stats for self-driving cars also have other caveats: they are only deployed in extremely favorable conditions (areas with very little rain and no snow), and the vast majority have human safety drivers for added verification. Also, many self-driving cars are not so much unsafe as occasionally bad at the basics of driving in certain scenarios - such as massively over/under-steering in intersections, leading to the need to maneuver in traffic (I've especially seen this in Tesla FSD videos). Also, > Your standard for "maybe" exceeds the abilities of many humans. I'm very curious what human driver is simply unable to do that task. In fact, the vast majority of human drivers could do this task, but 0 current self-driving cars could even attempt it.
- ben_w 4y ago
  > they are only deployed in extremely favorable conditions (areas with very little rain and no snow) I've heard a lot of conflicting reports about this with regard to Tesla's AI, but regardless your point is sound, my list is not exhaustive. > not so much unsafe as occasionally bad at the basics of driving in certain scenarios Indeed. It's one of the counterintuitive things about machine intelligence in general, that it can be wildly superhuman in domains that humans consider challenging while also being utterly pathetic in domains we consider trivial. > I'm very curious what human driver is simply unable to do that task. In fact, the vast majority of human drivers could do this task, but 0 current self-driving cars could even attempt it. A quick google suggested that the roads in the alps are often closed in the winter by the police because of the snow, so hopefully in such conditions the answer is "100% of humans cannot do this" :)