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Dance W Bear “The US Signals Readiness to Launch Nuclear Strike Against Russia”

7 points by mardiyah 4y ago

sklargh 4y ago
Just going to say it, there is no way that a sole SSBN can execute a decapitation first-strike successfully. Moving on to the more interesting topic - I want to talk about the “signaling” that’s going on/not going on here… It’s weird to identify the location of an Ohio-class. However, I’m puzzled by the assumption that an SSBN’s appearance is a profound signal. State of play for China, Russia, USA - A. All parties know when an SSBN is on patrol. B. The inside and outside response times to a SLBM launch are understood by all parties. C. All parties possesses an understanding of these sub’s likely operating areas. So, if you know an SSBN is on patrol, know the minimum-maximum response time to an SLBM launch and know where the sub is likely to be there isn’t much of a signal here. The fleet-in-being presence of a survivable SSBN is a default part of the game theoretical element of first vs. retaliatory nuclear strike. There is no meaningful signal here. Adding for clarity - SLBM = Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile SSBN = Nuclear submarine w/nuclear armed missiles
- metadat 4y ago
  Regarding the initialism "SSBN": > The United States Navy's hull classification symbols for ballistic missile submarines are SSB and SSBN – the SS denotes submarine, the B denotes ballistic missile, and the N denotes that the submarine is nuclear powered. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistic_missile_submarine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistic_missile_submarine
- joezydeco 4y ago
  It's probably not a profound signal to the top military leaders in each nation, but perhaps the point is to signal those below that aren't typically allowed to know such things.
  - avidiax 4y ago
    The clear signal is this article signaling from Russia to Russia. A field trip to a sub is at the very most, just a reminder that we have such subs in such places. Why write this article? I guess it helps to cement the idea that the U.S. is aggressive and a threat independent of (not in response to) Russian actions. The narrative, I suppose is: "If the U.S./NATO do anything aggressive towards Russia, well, it's nothing to do with the 'special operation' Ukraine. Look at how aggressive they are on the nuclear front, and how defenseless Russia is! This is all just a pretext to do what they've been planning all along!"
Gravityloss 4y ago
Hmm, reading the other articles, it is an odd blog.

7 points by mardiyah 4y ago

Just going to say it, there is no way that a sole SSBN can execute a decapitation first-strike successfully. Moving on to the more interesting topic - I want to talk about the “signaling” that’s going on/not going on here… It’s weird to identify the location of an Ohio-class. However, I’m puzzled by the assumption that an SSBN’s appearance is a profound signal. State of play for China, Russia, USA - A. All parties know when an SSBN is on patrol. B. The inside and outside response times to a SLBM launch are understood by all parties. C. All parties possesses an understanding of these sub’s likely operating areas. So, if you know an SSBN is on patrol, know the minimum-maximum response time to an SLBM launch and know where the sub is likely to be there isn’t much of a signal here. The fleet-in-being presence of a survivable SSBN is a default part of the game theoretical element of first vs. retaliatory nuclear strike. There is no meaningful signal here. Adding for clarity - SLBM = Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile SSBN = Nuclear submarine w/nuclear armed missiles

metadat 4y ago
Regarding the initialism "SSBN": > The United States Navy's hull classification symbols for ballistic missile submarines are SSB and SSBN – the SS denotes submarine, the B denotes ballistic missile, and the N denotes that the submarine is nuclear powered. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistic_missile_submarine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistic_missile_submarine
joezydeco 4y ago
It's probably not a profound signal to the top military leaders in each nation, but perhaps the point is to signal those below that aren't typically allowed to know such things.
- avidiax 4y ago
  The clear signal is this article signaling from Russia to Russia. A field trip to a sub is at the very most, just a reminder that we have such subs in such places. Why write this article? I guess it helps to cement the idea that the U.S. is aggressive and a threat independent of (not in response to) Russian actions. The narrative, I suppose is: "If the U.S./NATO do anything aggressive towards Russia, well, it's nothing to do with the 'special operation' Ukraine. Look at how aggressive they are on the nuclear front, and how defenseless Russia is! This is all just a pretext to do what they've been planning all along!"

Gravityloss 4y ago

Hmm, reading the other articles, it is an odd blog.