4 ms·

Yet. One thing media consistently gets wrong is the rate of innovation that is happening. Media also doesn't have access to state-of-the-art models, only from

Yet. One thing media consistently gets wrong is the rate of innovation that is happening. Media also doesn't have access to state-of-the-art models, only from the trigger-happy startups too eager to release half-baked version. It's akin to downloading Image Generation tools from the App Store and concluding that's state of the art

bpodgursky 4y ago
It baffles me that people can watch the trendline of "Job X can be automated in 40 years" (5 years ago) "Job X can be automated in 10 years" (2 years ago) "Job X can be automated in 5 years" (1 week ago) And feel comfortable poking holes in the AI models, pointing out where it fails. Obviously? But nobody 3 years ago thought that graphic design or creative writing was on death's row either. You have to spend a modicum of effort looking at how predictions have evolved over the past couple years, but once you do, it's very clear that mocking current AI systems makes you look like a clown.
- ckemere 4y ago
  There's also the timeline that: "Radiology will be automatized in 5 years" (10 years ago) "Radiology will be automatized in 5 years" (5 years ago) "Radiology will be automatized in 5 years" (last year) or "Full self driving will arrive within 5 years" (5 years ago) "Full self driving is still a ways off" (last year) Assuming you're referring to generative models, I don't think that anyone (knowledgable) thinks that graphic design or creative writing are on death's door. They might change with new tools, but skilled practitioners are still required. That's basically the point of the article.
  - chatterhead 4y ago
    We are 18 years from the DARPA Grand Challenge and none of the vehicles finished. Do you think a self-driving car can make it from LA to NYC by itself now? What do you think 2040 AI will look like?
  - lostlogin 4y ago
    Having seen some of the automation available in radiology, I’m a bit baffled as to why I still have a job as an MRI tech. 5 years ago I watched automated cardiac MRI, and it worked well. I was told about a site that were having good results with fetal cardiac MRI via a related bit of software. These scans are hard to do, and the machines did well. In some cases they got confused and did a good functional analysis but of the stomach, not the heart. Oops, but easily fixed by almost anyone after a few minutes of explanation. Why are basic MSK scans still done by a tech with years of training? I don’t know the answer to that as it’s basic stuff and if I end my career without machines having taken over the basic stuff, I’ll be a bit disappointed.
    - esel2k 4y ago
      But even if all these analysis would be dine automatically, I guess you won’t be out of a job soon (good news I guess). But just different: I did in the automation of the diagnostic lab and what happened is that from a detective style job, today it is more about running a factory. 24h running a business, turn around times and have less and less qualified personnel to fill the machines…

bpodgursky 4y ago

It baffles me that people can watch the trendline of "Job X can be automated in 40 years" (5 years ago) "Job X can be automated in 10 years" (2 years ago) "Job X can be automated in 5 years" (1 week ago) And feel comfortable poking holes in the AI models, pointing out where it fails. Obviously? But nobody 3 years ago thought that graphic design or creative writing was on death's row either. You have to spend a modicum of effort looking at how predictions have evolved over the past couple years, but once you do, it's very clear that mocking current AI systems makes you look like a clown.

ckemere 4y ago
There's also the timeline that: "Radiology will be automatized in 5 years" (10 years ago) "Radiology will be automatized in 5 years" (5 years ago) "Radiology will be automatized in 5 years" (last year) or "Full self driving will arrive within 5 years" (5 years ago) "Full self driving is still a ways off" (last year) Assuming you're referring to generative models, I don't think that anyone (knowledgable) thinks that graphic design or creative writing are on death's door. They might change with new tools, but skilled practitioners are still required. That's basically the point of the article.
- chatterhead 4y ago
  We are 18 years from the DARPA Grand Challenge and none of the vehicles finished. Do you think a self-driving car can make it from LA to NYC by itself now? What do you think 2040 AI will look like?
- lostlogin 4y ago
  Having seen some of the automation available in radiology, I’m a bit baffled as to why I still have a job as an MRI tech. 5 years ago I watched automated cardiac MRI, and it worked well. I was told about a site that were having good results with fetal cardiac MRI via a related bit of software. These scans are hard to do, and the machines did well. In some cases they got confused and did a good functional analysis but of the stomach, not the heart. Oops, but easily fixed by almost anyone after a few minutes of explanation. Why are basic MSK scans still done by a tech with years of training? I don’t know the answer to that as it’s basic stuff and if I end my career without machines having taken over the basic stuff, I’ll be a bit disappointed.
  - esel2k 4y ago
    But even if all these analysis would be dine automatically, I guess you won’t be out of a job soon (good news I guess). But just different: I did in the automation of the diagnostic lab and what happened is that from a detective style job, today it is more about running a factory. 24h running a business, turn around times and have less and less qualified personnel to fill the machines…