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Amazon's Jeff Bezos in economy warning: 'Batten down hatches'
- matt3210 4y ago> Growth in the US has already contracted for two quarters in a row, a milestone that in many countries - though not the US - is considered a recession. this again :lol:
- bee_rider 4y agoIt isn't a recession unless it is from the recesso region of France, otherwise it is just a sparkling downturn.
- mc32 4y agoAny other Chief executive and they would be getting roasted and hit in the news with Recession news and articles. But the current one for some reason, has less stickiness than "the Teflon Don." Imagine Bush (shudder) or Clinton or Obama or Trump not getting roasted with Recessionary news... They all would have been at the receiving end of the bad news.
- bern4444 4y agoAt least with Clinton the budget was balanced and even ran at a surplus.
- macintux 4y agoI was enraged when all hope of paying off the debt was cut off at its knees by the Bush tax cuts.
- mc32 4y agoHe was truly our worst president, despite Obama claiming they're friends --what a sell-out.
- cplusplusfellow 4y agoThanks to Newt Gingrich.
- baryphonic 4y agoThe "Clinton surplus" was an accounting gimmick where money stored in various government "trust funds" was loaned to the Treasury in exchange for Treasuries, but was counted as normal revenue. If "intragovernmental debt" were properly accounted for, Clinton never had a surplus (indeed, the national debt increased every year of his presidency, just like his predecessors and successors).
- mediumiqsad 4y ago
- astrange 4y agoNo reason to want that in the absence of inflation. A country is not a household and a budget surplus is the same thing as the money supply getting smaller, which is bad business if the number of people in the world who want to use your currency is increasing.
- astrange 4y agoHe's not in trouble for causing a recession cause he hasn't. The statement in the article is debatable even if you want to use a technical definition. Real GDI, which is supposed to be the same thing as real GDP, hasn't decreased: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A261RX1Q020SBEA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A261RX1Q020SBEA Which suggests dips in GDP are actually due to measuring it incorrectly since the economy is so unusual right now. Also, people dislike inflation more than they dislike the unemployment rate going up a little. That's because inflation hits everyone, while unemployment only applies to a few people. That's more or less why the Fed is trying to cause a minor recession in 2023.
- mc32 4y agoHe "hasn't" only because they (many economists and reporters) abandoned the de facto/practical definition which had been used in previous Recessions in favor of a more strict definition to define it away, or rather postpone the inevitable.
- mediumiqsad 4y ago
- astrange 4y agoIn previous recessions they’d be reporting about mass job losses, but instead we have the lowest unemployment in 50 years. They have been reporting about high gas prices, which people care a lot more about than GDP/GDI.
- smt88 4y agoBiden hasn't done anything to cause a recession. His party has done the opposite, if anything (although that's complicated and debatable). The Fed, on the other hand, is trying to move toward recession, or at least lower employment, by raising interest rates. They see low inflation as being preferable to high employment and rising prices. There is no good outcome when global supply chains and investors have been shocked by a pandemic and then a major land war.
- riffic 4y agoall recessions are inevitable. It's a feature of the business cycle for a trough-shaped period of time to occur. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cycle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cycle
- wingworks 4y agoRay Dalio does a great video on it too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0
- riffic 4y agoreally interesting! thank you for sharing.
- carlivar 4y agoTheir severity can be lessened however by not printing utterly outrageous amounts of money in the upturns.
- draw_down 4y ago
- mediumiqsad 4y ago
- bigyikes 4y agoI’m losing money by keeping it in a savings account. I’m losing money by keeping it in a brokerage account. I don’t want to change jobs to get a higher salary because I fear getting laid off. When there is no winning move, it definitely feels like a recession.
- fshbbdssbbgdd 4y agoDepending on your time horizon, I-bonds could be good.
- paulpauper 4y ago10 year treasury bonds looking good. The last time it was at 4.2% was in 1998
- devoutsalsa 4y agoStocks are almost certain to be a better investment over a 10 year period. Not risk free of course.
- Invictus0 4y ago$10k cap
- spywaregorilla 4y agoper year*
- fshbbdssbbgdd 4y agoYeah, $10k/year adds up. Can be a good place to put your dry powder. Also there’s ways to invest more: 1. Family 2. Tax return 3. LLC
- hammock 4y ago
- balderdash 4y agoI’d love to see the set of economic leading indicators that Amazon has at its fingertips, price drops, purchasing behavior changes, inventory trends, etc…
- quickthrower2 4y agoAlways ask: what is in it for him to say this.
- 404mm 4y agoHe’s not saying it to earn less money.
- throwawaylinux 4y agoYes it's a good question, what's in it for anybody who proffers an economic analysis or prediction?
- s0sa 4y agoMaybe I’m just lucky, but I’ve been reading a lot more about how we’re headed into a recession (since March 2020) than I’ve actually been feeling it, or even seeing it. I’m starting to think people just want one. “It’s not my failure, it’s the economy!”
- BuyMyBitcoins 4y agoI sense this is another one of those “Slowly, then suddenly” kinds of things. My grocery bills have slowly crept up, but remain manageable. That being said, I have noticed a few shocking things this last month. The contract on my electricity service is due to renew and the rate has increased by 30%. My insurance premium has gone up by 45%, and I haven’t gotten into any accents or made any claims - I’m told this isn’t unique to me and the industry is seeing 30-50% increases as common this year. Truth be told, I think things are continuing to build up and we haven’t had a Lehman Brothers moment yet.
- theGnuMe 4y agoCorps are boiling the frog slowly. The counter narrative is that this inflation is about corporate profiteering. Wages haven’t grown to increase demand to justify prices.
- neilv 4y agoHow do individuals/families batten down the hatches, wrt investments?
- bojo 4y agoI'm no financial expert, but lower your spend (kill useless subscriptions, live frugal), shop smarter (cheaper brands, less indulging in things like eating out), invest only if you feel like dollar cost averaging will pay off in the long run (blue chip companies). Honestly, we should do this anyways in order to become the millionaire next door, assuming accumulating wealth is a long term goal regardless of the economic situation. Harder to do in practice of course.
- SantalBlush 4y agoThese are the sort of austere cutbacks that CEOs are trying to induce. They are trying to create economic panic and raise the unemployment rate. They are desperate to raise the unemployment rate. In case anyone wasn't paying attention in the past fifteen years, execs have been saying "Times are tough" ever since 2008. Whether or not it's true doesn't matter to them; they just don't want to pay you more.
- 015a 4y agoIts important to note that every leader of a strong company has a financial interest in saying this, regardless of its validity. Growing companies need to "leave the hatches open" (so to speak) to, well, continue to grow; hire, attract talent, invest, raise pay, etc; which is exactly what strong companies don't want them to do. They benefit from pushing the narrative that the times are tough, from the privilege of having hatches to batten, because it hurts competitors, and lowers attrition even in the face of reduced pay raises. I'm not asserting that the economy will be fine and dandy over the next six to twelve months; just that you can't trust a word these snakes say. After all; isn't it strange that Amazon aims to add more seasonal operations jobs to account for the holiday surge this year, than they did last year? [1] [2] [1] https://www.retailtouchpoints.com/topics/store-operations/workforce-scheduling/amazon-add-150000-workers-holiday-2022-corporate-freeze-retail https://www.retailtouchpoints.com/topics/store-operations/wo... [2] https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/2021/09/20/breaking-amazons-pandemic-hiring-spree https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/2021/09/20/breaking-amazo...
- meltyness 4y agoThat or fluffing up hedge funds looking to exit bearish positions where Mr. Bezos may or may not have some of his massive wealth parked. At some point the only way to continue growth is to buy a 24 hour news outlet and start letting the air out of everyone else's tires. Ask Microsoft.
- thr0wawayf00 4y agoSpot on, and the recent press around Amazon's warehouse churn tells you everything you need to know about how they view labor. They're legitimately at risk of churning through their entire candidate pool in some job functions within the next few years and they don't care at all.[0] 0: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jun/22/amazon-workers-shortage-leaked-memo-warehouse https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jun/22/amazon-wo...
- dukeofdoom 4y agoWages need to double, just like everything else has. A new house costs a million, yet some people are forced to strike to get a $3 wage increase.
- astrange 4y agoBy a new house do you mean "a new house on land you own", "an old house and the land it's on", or "a new house and the land it's on"?
- dukeofdoom 4y agonew house on a new lot in Ontario even in smaller communities now goes for 1 million. Small lot with, a normal house, two car garage, standard obs construction. New house will often require tons of additional finishing after purchase. With interest it's actually 2 million to pay off. While many professional people, like educational support workers are still stuck in the 50k a year pay bracket for the last decade are getting offered tiny raises in pennies
- midoridensha 4y ago>A new house costs a million This is what you get for having a car-based society with no walkability and so much wasted space. The chickens are coming home to roost and it's time for you to pay the piper.
- dukeofdoom 4y agowouldn't you assume by spreading out it costs less to build since more land can be used for building. the increase is actually exponentially more land... pie r squared.
- midoridensha 4y agoNo, because not all land is desirable. You can save money by moving 500km away to an uninhabited place, but now you have a full-day commute in each direction, so you can't go to work any more. How is that useful? People live close together because there's physical benefits to doing so, and the more you spread out, the more travel time increases. And because of the 2-dimensional nature of roads, you get a greater-than-linear increase in travel times as the city expands because of gridlock. You're also assuming there's lots of land in places that people want to live. There's plenty of empty land in the frozen tundra, but no one in their right mind wants to live in places like that. The places that have nice weather where people like to live also happen to be the places that are best for growing food.
- bmitc 4y agoDoes anyone really care about what a mega billionaire, particularly one who has been at the forefront of turning customers into statistics, driving products and prices to the bottom dollar and lowest common denominator, and pouring fuel on consumerism, thinks about anything? > As the US central bank raises interest rates to fight rising prices Can someone explain their perspective on this? It seems it just helps those at the top fight rising prices.
- thenoblesunfish 4y agoIt seems like these sorts of statements have to be self-fulfilling to some degree (but not completely). Big companies battening down the hatches slows down other companies and humans, which in turn leads to more battening. I hope companies aren't too short sighted (though obviously in some ways they are prone or even obligated to be).
- Yizahi 4y agoSo he will fly his several private jets a dozen times less per month, to compensate? No? Thought so.
- ruh-roh 4y agoIs there a term for the phenomenon where a supremely powerful person can comment on some event that may happen, perhaps innocently, and the fact they said it makes it more likely to happen? In many ways, the health of an economy is a state of mind and emotional. Bezos has millions of people following his every word; many worship him and believe he has the keys to success (could also say the same about Musk & Gates). A pessimistic statement like this, regardless of merit, can/will cause others to be pessimistic. In a vacuum I would be very interested in Bezos's thoughts on this topic - he's clearly super-intelligent. But I don't think I could get past his powerful position and the many reasons why he may want to sway opinion.