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I am a big Netflix fan (subbed since 2003) but I am concerned about their future since 2017 or so. The reality is that streaming is becoming a commodity technol

by Gunax 4y ago

I am a big Netflix fan (subbed since 2003) but I am concerned about their future since 2017 or so. The reality is that streaming is becoming a commodity technology. What was cutting edge in 2007 and new in 2010 just isn't very differentiating any longer. I don't know what their alpha is. Everyone seems to complain about Netflix content (though I think it has the best selection, but whatever) and I worry they are fighting a front they are unlikely to win. They are a tech company--not a film brand.

crazygringo 4y ago
Nobody's going to "win" streaming, but like so many consumer industries, it's probably going to result in 3 major services and then a long tail. Netflix is almost certainly going to stay as one of those 3 major ones, with Disney as a 2nd. But unlike Coke/Pepsi or AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile, you buy all 3 (or cycle through them) rather than sticking with just one. And they're not a tech company anymore, because as you say the tech is now turning commodity. They're a content company that pioneered the data-driven approach. Their alpha is in hits like Stranger Things and Bridgerton.
- iLoveOncall 4y ago
  Netflix will 100% lose long term. The ones that will win are the ones that are supported by other businesses. Amazon PrimeVideo can lose 100M viewers in a quarter, it doesn't matter, the money is still here, and it won't even make the stock price move by a tenth of a percent. Netflix loses 10M subscribers in a quarter and its stock will be worth 0. Netflix has literally no way to compete against the other giants. It's a one trick poney with a single revenue stream competing against companies that have virtually infinite money compared to it. The ones that will remain are Amazon, Google and Apple. See you in 10 years.
  - jshzglr 4y ago
    I wouldn’t be so confident. Big tech is diffused. If a company like Netflix can remain focused and steer clear of tribal commotions they can stay in the fight for a long time.
  - crazygringo 4y ago
    No, it's pretty clear that Amazon (as it exists today) and Apple will remain niche services precisely because they're intended to complete a portfolio, not actually be profitable. Their goals are to keep you in Amazon and Apple's ecosystems, which means only a handful of hit shows needed. YouTube is in a different category altogether, they're not doing serious studio scripted content at scale. My money is that the big three are going to be Netflix, Disney/Hulu, and then some strange consolidation of most of Paramount+, Peacock, Discovery+, etc. that maybe partners with Amazon for distribution but maybe not. Stuff like HBO and Apple TV+ is the premium part of the long tail that people dip into as their favorite shows come back on.
  - curiousDog 4y ago
    Netflix has been in business for 25years now and competing with Amazon prime for close to ~12 years.. Of course on a long enough timeline survival zero yada yada..
    - cactus-bussin 4y ago
dragon-hn 4y ago
In my opinion you are incorrect that streaming tech is a commodity. Nobody comes close to Netflix in video delivery and client robustness. I’d say Netflix is many years ahead of its competitors in terms of technology.
- ComputerGuru 4y ago
  > I’d say Netflix is many years ahead of its competitors in terms of technology. They absolutely are, hands down, no question about it. There’s just the pesky problem of diminishing returns.
- Gunax 4y ago
  Hmm, i guess I dont see it. I really dont find much difference between any of the top competitors.
norwalkbear 4y ago
You are correct, this change is occuring rapidly across multiple sectors. Technology for things like gatcha games, streaming, card games, etc have been standardized. Now you have to compete on brand, market factor, and hype.

by Gunax 4y ago

crazygringo 4y ago

Nobody's going to "win" streaming, but like so many consumer industries, it's probably going to result in 3 major services and then a long tail. Netflix is almost certainly going to stay as one of those 3 major ones, with Disney as a 2nd. But unlike Coke/Pepsi or AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile, you buy all 3 (or cycle through them) rather than sticking with just one. And they're not a tech company anymore, because as you say the tech is now turning commodity. They're a content company that pioneered the data-driven approach. Their alpha is in hits like Stranger Things and Bridgerton.

iLoveOncall 4y ago
Netflix will 100% lose long term. The ones that will win are the ones that are supported by other businesses. Amazon PrimeVideo can lose 100M viewers in a quarter, it doesn't matter, the money is still here, and it won't even make the stock price move by a tenth of a percent. Netflix loses 10M subscribers in a quarter and its stock will be worth 0. Netflix has literally no way to compete against the other giants. It's a one trick poney with a single revenue stream competing against companies that have virtually infinite money compared to it. The ones that will remain are Amazon, Google and Apple. See you in 10 years.
- jshzglr 4y ago
  I wouldn’t be so confident. Big tech is diffused. If a company like Netflix can remain focused and steer clear of tribal commotions they can stay in the fight for a long time.
- crazygringo 4y ago
  No, it's pretty clear that Amazon (as it exists today) and Apple will remain niche services precisely because they're intended to complete a portfolio, not actually be profitable. Their goals are to keep you in Amazon and Apple's ecosystems, which means only a handful of hit shows needed. YouTube is in a different category altogether, they're not doing serious studio scripted content at scale. My money is that the big three are going to be Netflix, Disney/Hulu, and then some strange consolidation of most of Paramount+, Peacock, Discovery+, etc. that maybe partners with Amazon for distribution but maybe not. Stuff like HBO and Apple TV+ is the premium part of the long tail that people dip into as their favorite shows come back on.
- curiousDog 4y ago
  Netflix has been in business for 25years now and competing with Amazon prime for close to ~12 years.. Of course on a long enough timeline survival zero yada yada..
  - cactus-bussin 4y ago

dragon-hn 4y ago

In my opinion you are incorrect that streaming tech is a commodity. Nobody comes close to Netflix in video delivery and client robustness. I’d say Netflix is many years ahead of its competitors in terms of technology.

ComputerGuru 4y ago
> I’d say Netflix is many years ahead of its competitors in terms of technology. They absolutely are, hands down, no question about it. There’s just the pesky problem of diminishing returns.
Gunax 4y ago
Hmm, i guess I dont see it. I really dont find much difference between any of the top competitors.

norwalkbear 4y ago

You are correct, this change is occuring rapidly across multiple sectors. Technology for things like gatcha games, streaming, card games, etc have been standardized. Now you have to compete on brand, market factor, and hype.