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Seems like a dumb article - their whole argument is that we should NOT be building fabs in the US because demand has recently fallen and we MIGHT end up with to

Seems like a dumb article - their whole argument is that we should NOT be building fabs in the US because demand has recently fallen and we MIGHT end up with too much supply? Seems like a good thing to be honest. More supply means cheaper prices and even if demand is a bit lower there is no way it is going to keep going down. We have CPU's in damn near everything these days. The drop is probably mainly because of crypto mining falling of a cliff.

fnordpiglet 4y ago
Seems like a good thing as a consumer. As a producer it’s what you try to avoid. They’re not charities
- CydeWeys 4y ago
  It's reasons like this why the DPA and other mechanisms exist. Having sufficient fab capacity in case global supply lines experience disruption is a strategic reserve of high national security importance.
  - fnordpiglet 4y ago
    That’s true. But then supply, demand, and price are irrelevant. The challenge is making optimal decisions about investment. Markets tend to be brutal to producers who aren’t efficient, and that leads to a Darwinian process favoring the momentarily optimal producers. Production by fiat leads to weird outcomes. DPA mandated and funded fab facilities will probably in the future be wildly out of date with private producers ensuring we can only produce antiquated processes or using extraordinarily inefficient processes. I’m no libertarian market wacko, and I think it’s important to have decentralized production and as a planet we probably jumped the shark with centralizing Asia as the production hub for manufacturing and fabrication. But I’m dubious DPA etc are sufficient measures. My point though was low prices and softening demand is NOT helpful as the prior poster asserted. It hurts the effort because the lack of margin and scale means only fiat production is possible, with poor long term outcomes.
godelski 4y ago
Oh no, if only it were possible to expand the use case of cheap and affordable chips. It's not like we can put computer chips into devices like refrigerators, thermostats, watches, lights, tea kettles, ovens, cars, bicycles, musical instruments, desks, keyboards, doors, sorry, I lost track what we were talking about. Seems like we can put computers in literally everything. Isn't that what the IOT people promised us?

fnordpiglet 4y ago

Seems like a good thing as a consumer. As a producer it’s what you try to avoid. They’re not charities

CydeWeys 4y ago
It's reasons like this why the DPA and other mechanisms exist. Having sufficient fab capacity in case global supply lines experience disruption is a strategic reserve of high national security importance.
- fnordpiglet 4y ago
  That’s true. But then supply, demand, and price are irrelevant. The challenge is making optimal decisions about investment. Markets tend to be brutal to producers who aren’t efficient, and that leads to a Darwinian process favoring the momentarily optimal producers. Production by fiat leads to weird outcomes. DPA mandated and funded fab facilities will probably in the future be wildly out of date with private producers ensuring we can only produce antiquated processes or using extraordinarily inefficient processes. I’m no libertarian market wacko, and I think it’s important to have decentralized production and as a planet we probably jumped the shark with centralizing Asia as the production hub for manufacturing and fabrication. But I’m dubious DPA etc are sufficient measures. My point though was low prices and softening demand is NOT helpful as the prior poster asserted. It hurts the effort because the lack of margin and scale means only fiat production is possible, with poor long term outcomes.

godelski 4y ago

Oh no, if only it were possible to expand the use case of cheap and affordable chips. It's not like we can put computer chips into devices like refrigerators, thermostats, watches, lights, tea kettles, ovens, cars, bicycles, musical instruments, desks, keyboards, doors, sorry, I lost track what we were talking about. Seems like we can put computers in literally everything. Isn't that what the IOT people promised us?