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If China attempts an invasion on Taiwan it is not unrealistic to suggest they’ll also take a swing at Japan and at least try to destroy the fabs there.

theptip 4y ago
That seems very unrealistic to suggest, to me.
xwolfi 4y ago
It is very unlikely, if not impossible: China has repeatedly stated Taiwan is in China, Taiwan has repeatedly stated they, in fact, are the legitimate China, both prepare day and night for an invasion they never dismiss, and both are a direct threat to each other politically, geographically and culturally. Japan ? They're as threatened by China as India, and nobody in China is planning for administrative take over of 130 millions Japanese anytime soon. And Japan has so many problems to solve already, they're not looking at bothering China enough to risk missiles.
mlsu 4y ago
If China invaded Taiwan it would be despite, not because of, the fabs there.
bendhoefs 4y ago
Why? If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene. They want Taiwan not a war with the entire west all at once.
- nordsieck 4y ago
  > If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene. That only works if the rest of the world hasn't already decided to intervene. And sure - NATO isn't "the rest of the world"; but militarily, it might as well be.
- etempleton 4y ago
  The United States has indicated that they would intervene, which means the only way to have a chance at a successful amphibious landing would be to conduct preemptive strikes against US bases in the region. To do so would be a direct declaration of war against the US and NATO, which, at current, China cannot hope to win. I think China is out of there mind here. They either are A. willing to smash Taiwan to rubble and call it a victory or B. completely overestimate their chance of success. I think China's real hope is that they can threaten their way to an advantageous position and take Taiwan without firing a bullet, but so far no one is blinking and the west is fed up with autocrats threatening warfare to get their way.
  - ericmay 4y ago
    NATO specifically doesn’t involve European partners in a war in the Pacific. Not to say some may or may not join the US in the fight.
  - lmm 4y ago
    > The United States has indicated that they would intervene, The US has made multiple unclear statements. What one president may say, another may walk back or reverse. Or the US might simply not do what they said, or adopt some face-saving half-measure. Killing US troops stationed in Japan, OTOH, would force a very strong response; even if the government wanted to deescalate, the public wouldn't let them.
- ericmay 4y ago
  “Taking” Taiwan with abrupt military force cannot be decoupled from a war with the entire west all at once. At least US, UK, SK, AUS, and others (unsure about EU involvement).
DeathArrow 4y ago
China does not want Japan. They want Taiwan and preferably with chip factories intact.
georgeecollins 4y ago
It's possible for China to attack fabs in Japan but China attacking Japan is a WW3 level escalation without a doubt. Invading Taiwan may or may not be. Japan is very able to defend itself against China and the Chinese know that. That doesn't mean the Japanese would win a war with China, but who knows? Who would think Ukraine could take on Russia? If China seriously went to war with the US and Japan China could be blockaded. The history of the last fifty years suggest the Chinese are pretty measured in their use of force. I'm sure they would try to capture Taiwan if they were confident they could with acceptable losses. But they realize time is on their side and they are not crazy gamblers like Putin.
- dirtyid 4y ago
  Depends on how Sino-US competition veers. As important as TW is to rejuvenation narrative, it's ultimately the consolation prize versus dismantling US east asian security architecture and securing regional+ hegemony. That's the grand finale battle for the lightcone of future PRC security/prosperity. >Japan is very able to defend Japan (and SKR, and TW, and even PH) like most US allies in island chain are are heavily dependant on energy and calorie imports. They can defend themselves against invasion, but they can't defend against PRC turning them into Yemen by wrecking critical infra (cut internet cables, destroy power nodes, mine ports etc). Stuff that make them non viable as a modern economy/society. The flip side of trying to contain PRC during peace is if they try to contain PRC during war, they're stuck in the island chain with a much more autarkic PRC who can spoil region indefinitely. And because US has security commitments, it maybe in PRC interest to draw US to defend allies where PRC forces balance is strongest. I also think while CCP obviously prefers low cost reuninfication (even if armed), I personally would not be surprised if things escalate much broader because there are larger (and worthwhile) goals / targets. If Australia is going to contribute to even supporting US efforts in TW scenario, then destroying US military infra in AU (Pinegap, Geraldton, Exmouth) will cripple US Indo Pac operation. If anything, there may come a point of favourable future PRC power balance mixed with levels of percieved US antagonism where PRC will be eager for excuses to eliminate US regional/global military infra.
  - greycol 4y ago
addingadimensio 4y ago
If China invades Taiwan it’s not unrealistic to think they’ll also start World War III at the same time? I think that’s unrealistic
bluepizza 4y ago
It is completely unrealistic. Japan is protected by the USA. Any attacks on Japanese territory would lead to nuclear annihilation of Beijing.
- heavyset_go 4y ago
  This sounds like what was being said about Taiwan a few years ago.
  - bluepizza 4y ago
    It absolutely does not. Taiwan was never under any sort of agreement, and the USA has always been ambiguous about its policy towards Taiwan. This is completely different from the mutual defense agreement that Japan has with the USA, where it has been made very clear that the USA will protect Japan. I understand you want to have a critical opinion, but you need to look at the facts.
    - hollerith 4y ago
      In particular, Japan has the economic and technological might to have been able to make nukes decades ago. They didn't because they received a promise from the US that if anyone nuked them, the US would retaliate with its nukes. In exchange, Japan promised it would not make nukes (and probably also promised to consult with the US on Japanese national security matters). This deal came about because both Japan and the US see the value in keeping the number of countries with nukes low.
- pweezy 4y ago
  China is a nuclear power and neither the US nor China is interested in MAD. Any attacks on Japanese territory would probably lead to a hot war with the US, but almost certainly not nuclear annihilation.
- vagrantJin 4y ago
  What a childish and naive take. I'll be blunt and assert its pretty dumb. Firstly, completely dismissing Japan as a sovereign state. Complete disrespect. Secondly, nuclear warfare is the dumbest solution possible. Who ever fires first must accept potentially losing the trust of all nations. No matter who fires for whatever reason. Barring an alien attack or something of that magnitide. Thirdly, the US power does not come from its military - but diplomacy. Allies in strategic places captured by the flow of capital. The military maintains the status quo but isn't invincible. If it were, Russia would not exist. China would not become a superpower. These are basics.
22SAS 4y ago
If they agree to stay the fuck out of Japan and focus solely on Taiwan, NATO will stay put to avoid WW3. Plus, South Korea, Japan, have treaties with the US, which will lead the US to intervene if either of these countries gets attacked. China might not want to officially give NATO a reason to start WW3.

theptip 4y ago

That seems very unrealistic to suggest, to me.

xwolfi 4y ago

It is very unlikely, if not impossible: China has repeatedly stated Taiwan is in China, Taiwan has repeatedly stated they, in fact, are the legitimate China, both prepare day and night for an invasion they never dismiss, and both are a direct threat to each other politically, geographically and culturally. Japan ? They're as threatened by China as India, and nobody in China is planning for administrative take over of 130 millions Japanese anytime soon. And Japan has so many problems to solve already, they're not looking at bothering China enough to risk missiles.

mlsu 4y ago

If China invaded Taiwan it would be despite, not because of, the fabs there.

bendhoefs 4y ago

Why? If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene. They want Taiwan not a war with the entire west all at once.

nordsieck 4y ago
> If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene. That only works if the rest of the world hasn't already decided to intervene. And sure - NATO isn't "the rest of the world"; but militarily, it might as well be.
etempleton 4y ago
The United States has indicated that they would intervene, which means the only way to have a chance at a successful amphibious landing would be to conduct preemptive strikes against US bases in the region. To do so would be a direct declaration of war against the US and NATO, which, at current, China cannot hope to win. I think China is out of there mind here. They either are A. willing to smash Taiwan to rubble and call it a victory or B. completely overestimate their chance of success. I think China's real hope is that they can threaten their way to an advantageous position and take Taiwan without firing a bullet, but so far no one is blinking and the west is fed up with autocrats threatening warfare to get their way.
- ericmay 4y ago
  NATO specifically doesn’t involve European partners in a war in the Pacific. Not to say some may or may not join the US in the fight.
- lmm 4y ago
  > The United States has indicated that they would intervene, The US has made multiple unclear statements. What one president may say, another may walk back or reverse. Or the US might simply not do what they said, or adopt some face-saving half-measure. Killing US troops stationed in Japan, OTOH, would force a very strong response; even if the government wanted to deescalate, the public wouldn't let them.
ericmay 4y ago
“Taking” Taiwan with abrupt military force cannot be decoupled from a war with the entire west all at once. At least US, UK, SK, AUS, and others (unsure about EU involvement).

DeathArrow 4y ago

China does not want Japan. They want Taiwan and preferably with chip factories intact.

georgeecollins 4y ago

It's possible for China to attack fabs in Japan but China attacking Japan is a WW3 level escalation without a doubt. Invading Taiwan may or may not be. Japan is very able to defend itself against China and the Chinese know that. That doesn't mean the Japanese would win a war with China, but who knows? Who would think Ukraine could take on Russia? If China seriously went to war with the US and Japan China could be blockaded. The history of the last fifty years suggest the Chinese are pretty measured in their use of force. I'm sure they would try to capture Taiwan if they were confident they could with acceptable losses. But they realize time is on their side and they are not crazy gamblers like Putin.

dirtyid 4y ago
Depends on how Sino-US competition veers. As important as TW is to rejuvenation narrative, it's ultimately the consolation prize versus dismantling US east asian security architecture and securing regional+ hegemony. That's the grand finale battle for the lightcone of future PRC security/prosperity. >Japan is very able to defend Japan (and SKR, and TW, and even PH) like most US allies in island chain are are heavily dependant on energy and calorie imports. They can defend themselves against invasion, but they can't defend against PRC turning them into Yemen by wrecking critical infra (cut internet cables, destroy power nodes, mine ports etc). Stuff that make them non viable as a modern economy/society. The flip side of trying to contain PRC during peace is if they try to contain PRC during war, they're stuck in the island chain with a much more autarkic PRC who can spoil region indefinitely. And because US has security commitments, it maybe in PRC interest to draw US to defend allies where PRC forces balance is strongest. I also think while CCP obviously prefers low cost reuninfication (even if armed), I personally would not be surprised if things escalate much broader because there are larger (and worthwhile) goals / targets. If Australia is going to contribute to even supporting US efforts in TW scenario, then destroying US military infra in AU (Pinegap, Geraldton, Exmouth) will cripple US Indo Pac operation. If anything, there may come a point of favourable future PRC power balance mixed with levels of percieved US antagonism where PRC will be eager for excuses to eliminate US regional/global military infra.
- greycol 4y ago

addingadimensio 4y ago

If China invades Taiwan it’s not unrealistic to think they’ll also start World War III at the same time? I think that’s unrealistic

bluepizza 4y ago

It is completely unrealistic. Japan is protected by the USA. Any attacks on Japanese territory would lead to nuclear annihilation of Beijing.

heavyset_go 4y ago
This sounds like what was being said about Taiwan a few years ago.
- bluepizza 4y ago
  It absolutely does not. Taiwan was never under any sort of agreement, and the USA has always been ambiguous about its policy towards Taiwan. This is completely different from the mutual defense agreement that Japan has with the USA, where it has been made very clear that the USA will protect Japan. I understand you want to have a critical opinion, but you need to look at the facts.
  - hollerith 4y ago
    In particular, Japan has the economic and technological might to have been able to make nukes decades ago. They didn't because they received a promise from the US that if anyone nuked them, the US would retaliate with its nukes. In exchange, Japan promised it would not make nukes (and probably also promised to consult with the US on Japanese national security matters). This deal came about because both Japan and the US see the value in keeping the number of countries with nukes low.
pweezy 4y ago
China is a nuclear power and neither the US nor China is interested in MAD. Any attacks on Japanese territory would probably lead to a hot war with the US, but almost certainly not nuclear annihilation.
vagrantJin 4y ago
What a childish and naive take. I'll be blunt and assert its pretty dumb. Firstly, completely dismissing Japan as a sovereign state. Complete disrespect. Secondly, nuclear warfare is the dumbest solution possible. Who ever fires first must accept potentially losing the trust of all nations. No matter who fires for whatever reason. Barring an alien attack or something of that magnitide. Thirdly, the US power does not come from its military - but diplomacy. Allies in strategic places captured by the flow of capital. The military maintains the status quo but isn't invincible. If it were, Russia would not exist. China would not become a superpower. These are basics.

22SAS 4y ago

If they agree to stay the fuck out of Japan and focus solely on Taiwan, NATO will stay put to avoid WW3. Plus, South Korea, Japan, have treaties with the US, which will lead the US to intervene if either of these countries gets attacked. China might not want to officially give NATO a reason to start WW3.