4 ms·
One theory I subscribe to is that 1971 is when the US hit peak oil production. By that metric, the Covid boost to real wages could be the aberration.
by SuoDuanDao 4y ago
One theory I subscribe to is that 1971 is when the US hit peak oil production. By that metric, the Covid boost to real wages could be the aberration.
- gruez 4y ago>One theory I subscribe to is that 1971 is when the US hit peak oil production except now thanks to shale oil/fracking, we're actually producing more oil today than in 1971[1]. Why haven't we seen a reversion back to the good ol days? [1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43015 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43015
- marcosdumay 4y agoIf the GP has the correct answer, it would be because the cost of producing the current US oil is much higher than the cost of the 1971 oil. Anyway, the OPEC started to control the oil price in 1971 too, didn't it?
- gruez 4y ago>If the GP has the correct answer, it would be because the cost of producing the current US oil is much higher than the cost of the 1971 oil. Inflation adjusted oil prices were actually pretty close to pre-1971 oil prices between 1986 up until 2004. If the oil price theory was true, shouldn't we have seen a reversal in the trend during that time period? https://imageio.forbes.com/specials-images/imageserve/624487fa5d5a75b6784ab6ab/Graph-shows-current-price-level-reached-in-late-1970s/960x0.jpg?format=jpg&width=960 https://imageio.forbes.com/specials-images/imageserve/624487...
- marcosdumay 4y agoBy "pretty close" you mean with a clear and very significant increase on the average (more than doubled, if you discard all the high points), higher peaks, and more volatility?
- rexreed 4y agoApparently all is not what it seems in oil production, esp. versus the run up to the 1970's peak oil: https://peakoil.com/consumption/mit-researchers-us-oil-production-estimates-may-be-flawed/comment-page-1 https://peakoil.com/consumption/mit-researchers-us-oil-produ...