4 ms·

A nice explanation for the "rate of progress" is the percentage of the population that is not involved in the production of food. Since the dawn of humanity up

A nice explanation for the "rate of progress" is the percentage of the population that is not involved in the production of food. Since the dawn of humanity up until "very recently" in the grand scheme of things, something like 95 to 98 percent of the population were directly involved in food production. There were the odd shamans, priests, tribal leaders, or what have you, but everyone else made themselves busy hunting, fishing, or farming. The current ratio in developed countries is something like 1 to 2 percent of the population directly working in farming, and maybe 20 to 30 percent working in "food production". Think workers at the biscuit factory, or chefs in a restaurant. Everyone else is free to do science, engineering, project management, finance, or whatever. The difference between 2% of the population free to work on non-food activities and 70% is massive. This is why so much progress has happened just in the last few centuries.

lordnacho 4y ago
That's true, but you need to unlock the tech for you to have enough food to feed everyone comfortably. Until it's comfy you have a fragile economy that occasionally falls into famine, so everyone would have to make plans to accommodate that, ie they can't build the pyramid too high. Your problem also isn't just inventing better methods, you also have to rearrange society to take advantage of this new possibility.
deleted 4y ago
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derekp7 4y ago
The question I have is how did mega projects in ancient times (such as the Pyramids) get enough people to work on them, and still have enough food to feed them? Or were the people on those projects (and other city-building projects at that time) only less than 5 percent of the total population? Also, is that 95% that are spending the majority of their time on food production? Or is that including people that spend a lot of time on fall harvest and spring planting, but don't do much else during off seasons?
- notahacker 4y ago
  Pyramids were built during offseasons. But it wouldn't really have been an option to redeploy that unskilled, uneducated labour towards industrial research instead, at least not without a radical change to ancient societies. Not least because kings and religions tended to want non-agricultural engineering resources focused on monuments and defences, not finding more labour/cost-effective ways of increasing output of craft produce or pursuing science for the sake of science
  - isk517 4y ago
    Also wasn't ancient Egypt ridiculously fertile? I imagine being able to consistently produce excess grain means you can divert workers to other projects.
    - lordnacho 4y ago
      Plus don't forget why Egypt was fertile: The farmland got regularly flooded by the river. Can't do much while it's flooded, just go and help out on the pyramid project.
- feoren 4y ago
  During the fertile season, right after the floodplains were flooded, you needed an enormous amount of labor to take advantage of the huge area of freshly-fertilized soil. Presumably this area needed to be tended and maintained, and then of course the harvest was another time when you needed enormous amounts of labor. And then you've harvested and the plains are briefly fallow, then they get flooded by the Nile for a few weeks, and there's nothing to do. So you have an enormous amount of labor power with nothing to do for a couple months every year. Why not pay them a little to lug massive stones around to build a monument to your awesomeness? Better than having them idling in the streets!
flavius29663 4y ago
and also: today the farming and food making activities are evolving the society beyond the basic need of feeding people. For example the food industry is developing its own materials, processes, refrigeration techniques, delivery industry (doordash, uber eats etc.) are advancing our computer systems
gopher_space 4y ago
> something like 95 to 98 percent of the population were directly involved in food production. For some people and areas this just involved wading into a river for a few minutes every other day.
mjan22640 4y ago
The percentage of scientists is going to grow exponentially till non-scientist deplete, and might be even better benchmark of progress.

lordnacho 4y ago

That's true, but you need to unlock the tech for you to have enough food to feed everyone comfortably. Until it's comfy you have a fragile economy that occasionally falls into famine, so everyone would have to make plans to accommodate that, ie they can't build the pyramid too high. Your problem also isn't just inventing better methods, you also have to rearrange society to take advantage of this new possibility.

deleted 4y ago

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derekp7 4y ago

The question I have is how did mega projects in ancient times (such as the Pyramids) get enough people to work on them, and still have enough food to feed them? Or were the people on those projects (and other city-building projects at that time) only less than 5 percent of the total population? Also, is that 95% that are spending the majority of their time on food production? Or is that including people that spend a lot of time on fall harvest and spring planting, but don't do much else during off seasons?

notahacker 4y ago
Pyramids were built during offseasons. But it wouldn't really have been an option to redeploy that unskilled, uneducated labour towards industrial research instead, at least not without a radical change to ancient societies. Not least because kings and religions tended to want non-agricultural engineering resources focused on monuments and defences, not finding more labour/cost-effective ways of increasing output of craft produce or pursuing science for the sake of science
- isk517 4y ago
  Also wasn't ancient Egypt ridiculously fertile? I imagine being able to consistently produce excess grain means you can divert workers to other projects.
  - lordnacho 4y ago
    Plus don't forget why Egypt was fertile: The farmland got regularly flooded by the river. Can't do much while it's flooded, just go and help out on the pyramid project.
feoren 4y ago
During the fertile season, right after the floodplains were flooded, you needed an enormous amount of labor to take advantage of the huge area of freshly-fertilized soil. Presumably this area needed to be tended and maintained, and then of course the harvest was another time when you needed enormous amounts of labor. And then you've harvested and the plains are briefly fallow, then they get flooded by the Nile for a few weeks, and there's nothing to do. So you have an enormous amount of labor power with nothing to do for a couple months every year. Why not pay them a little to lug massive stones around to build a monument to your awesomeness? Better than having them idling in the streets!

flavius29663 4y ago

and also: today the farming and food making activities are evolving the society beyond the basic need of feeding people. For example the food industry is developing its own materials, processes, refrigeration techniques, delivery industry (doordash, uber eats etc.) are advancing our computer systems

gopher_space 4y ago

> something like 95 to 98 percent of the population were directly involved in food production. For some people and areas this just involved wading into a river for a few minutes every other day.

mjan22640 4y ago

The percentage of scientists is going to grow exponentially till non-scientist deplete, and might be even better benchmark of progress.