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Even if we legally went back to normal that doesn't mean consumer demand would have gone back to normal. It was pretty clear that it wouldn't have gone back to

by treis 4y ago

Even if we legally went back to normal that doesn't mean consumer demand would have gone back to normal. It was pretty clear that it wouldn't have gone back to normal until the vaccine was rolled out.

vkou 4y ago
Ding, ding, ding. I don't care what the government rules would have been, I wouldn't have been travelling/commuting to the office/going to the bar at any point in 2020. My employer would not have been organizing any in-person conferences. Which would, without the PPP/unemployment stopgap, would have happily put most of the firms in the travel/hospitality/conference organization industry out of business, due to a temporary disruption.
- Scoundreller 4y ago
  So the existing management buys the firm for $1 in a liquidation and they come back in a few years. Sounds more like it was the creditors and investors that took on more risk than they could handle and got bailed out.
  - vkou 4y ago
    Liquidating a firm, and then coming back in a few years is not like turning a light switch off and on. It's like leaving a car to rust unattended in a field for a decade, and coming back to it. It's not going to be running, and it's going to take a mountain of work to get it into a running state. That's precisely why letting all these businesses die because of a temporary pandemic disruption is the penny-wise, pound-foolish decision. If you think it's fair for the owner class to have paid for PPP, I can get behind that, as I'm all for wealth taxes/increasing capital gains taxes/???.
    - Scoundreller 4y ago
      Usually courts in bankruptcy/liquidation release enough funds to maintain value. Many of these businesses were closed due to covid anyway and in barebones maintenance mode, as court would do if they felt there was some value left to sell. Sometimes bankruptcies are nearly invisible to customers and all in the background while creditors/investors lose their shirts.

by treis 4y ago

vkou 4y ago

Ding, ding, ding. I don't care what the government rules would have been, I wouldn't have been travelling/commuting to the office/going to the bar at any point in 2020. My employer would not have been organizing any in-person conferences. Which would, without the PPP/unemployment stopgap, would have happily put most of the firms in the travel/hospitality/conference organization industry out of business, due to a temporary disruption.

Scoundreller 4y ago
So the existing management buys the firm for $1 in a liquidation and they come back in a few years. Sounds more like it was the creditors and investors that took on more risk than they could handle and got bailed out.
- vkou 4y ago
  Liquidating a firm, and then coming back in a few years is not like turning a light switch off and on. It's like leaving a car to rust unattended in a field for a decade, and coming back to it. It's not going to be running, and it's going to take a mountain of work to get it into a running state. That's precisely why letting all these businesses die because of a temporary pandemic disruption is the penny-wise, pound-foolish decision. If you think it's fair for the owner class to have paid for PPP, I can get behind that, as I'm all for wealth taxes/increasing capital gains taxes/???.
  - Scoundreller 4y ago
    Usually courts in bankruptcy/liquidation release enough funds to maintain value. Many of these businesses were closed due to covid anyway and in barebones maintenance mode, as court would do if they felt there was some value left to sell. Sometimes bankruptcies are nearly invisible to customers and all in the background while creditors/investors lose their shirts.