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China overtaking the US seems a lot more likely based on sheer numbers. China’s population is over 4x larger than that of the US. So China “just” needs to reach

by pweezy 4y ago

China overtaking the US seems a lot more likely based on sheer numbers. China’s population is over 4x larger than that of the US. So China “just” needs to reach a GDP per capita of 25% to have a larger economy than the US. This metric has been growing rapidly in the past decade or two and from a rough search, seems to currently stand around 17-18% of the US’s figure. Of course GDP isn’t the only factor in world power status, but it sure is a big one. Compared to the US, China also has a far larger labor force, a greater ability to manufacture things, and greater government control over its population. Access to natural resources is similar for many things, less for some (like oil and gas) but greater for others (like rare earth minerals).

londons_explore 4y ago
> less for some (like oil and gas) If worldwide carbon caps and tariffs become a thing, the oil and gas in the ground suddenly becomes nearly worthless if you can't use it. Whereas China has a huge amount of not-good-for-much desert and mountains which could become a solar powerhouse.
- nordsieck 4y ago
  > If worldwide carbon caps and tariffs become a thing, the oil and gas in the ground suddenly becomes nearly worthless if you can't use it. It may be worth less, but it won't be worthless. I have a hard time seeing another fuel source for long distance aviation (although we may move to synthesized fuel in the future). Companies will also need feedstock for plastics - that use won't be affected by carbon caps at all.
  - rjzzleep 4y ago
    Those tariffs are also a joke in and of itself. As we can already from the oil price cap idea you can only enforce things when the world plays along, but looks increasingly like the global south is fed up by these dictates. So good luck enforcing carbon caps and tariffs when the majority of the world population doesn't play along. You can still have them, but ultimately it's the people in western societies that will pay the price with their own pensions and social services gradually degrading.
- itsoktocry 4y ago
  >If worldwide carbon caps and tariffs become a thing, the oil and gas in the ground suddenly becomes nearly worthless if you can't use it. 2nd and 3rd world countries are going to bathe in cheap oil when/if the 1st world bans it. How do you plan on enforcing the bans globally?
  - londons_explore 4y ago
    We kinda enforce "don't trade slaves" globally... And "No child labour"... And "don't steal other countries ships when they sail near your country". "Don't emit more than your fair share of carbon" is just another rule like the others. If most countries agree, but there are a few dissenters, we can deal with it like other international disagreements - warnings, then sanctions, then war. Currently, we're far from that, because we don't have a majority of countries agreeing on carbon caps.
    - panick21_ 4y ago
      So the British Navy is gone blockade Africa so they cant import oil from the middle east? Great plan.
      - londons_explore 4y ago
        Nah - it'll go down like Venezuela [1]. The government of a country flagrantly ignores the internationally agreed carbon caps, and so some country or group of countries get together and sponsor a coup. It happened to Venezuela because they refused to align with US interests, and with other economic and political issues, they were an easy target. The wikipedia page [1] has a nice summary of the list of countries on each side of the dispute, and you can see a nice 'pro USA' and 'anti USA' divide. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuela#Since_2018 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuela#Since_2018
        panick21_ 4y ago
        Sponsoring foreign queue is not actually that easy.
sonotathrowaway 4y ago
China has the fastest aging population in recorded human history, along with some of the worst demographics. What exact advantages do you see in that?
- londons_explore 4y ago
  I think China could easily fix their demographics if they wanted to. They have sufficient control of their population that if they said "everyone of child bearing age must try for a child this year and next", they'd probably double their population within 2 years. The 'demographic problem' is only a problem because they don't see it as an issue worth fixing.
  - zztop44 4y ago
    I think this is wildly off base. Lots of them don’t want to have kids. The government has many ways to influence the public. But I don’t think it’s true to say that they have so much control over their populace that they could do anything like double their population in 20 years, let alone 2. People in China are just people, right? Many of them don’t want to have kids. What’s the government gonna do? Of course, hypothetically, the government blocks people from leaving the country and literally forces them to procreate but that’s getting a bit imaginative (it would be turning the China that exists today into something very different). Realistically I think the government is worried about their demographic problem and is using every reasonable tool in their arsenal to attempt to address it.
    - epicureanideal 4y ago
      > People in China are just people, right? Many of them don’t want to have kids. What’s the government gonna do? See the Cultural Revolution and Great Famine etc for examples of what it can do. Basically anything.
      - CogitoCogito 4y ago
        > See the Cultural Revolution and Great Famine etc for examples of what it can do. Basically anything. Even assuming China is all powerful and can achieve "anything" here, the policies would still have a latency of an entire generation. Unless you include time-travel as part of "anything".
amusingimpala75 4y ago
Give it a few years. The one child policy, even though it’s gone now, it really going to mess up population growth.
- jacooper 4y ago
  By how much? At best its going to be 25%, which is still around 1 billion people.
epicureanideal 4y ago
The US could solve the population difference fairly easily by having some family friendly policies, and walking back laws that are destructive to families such as by incentivizing divorce etc.

by pweezy 4y ago

londons_explore 4y ago

> less for some (like oil and gas) If worldwide carbon caps and tariffs become a thing, the oil and gas in the ground suddenly becomes nearly worthless if you can't use it. Whereas China has a huge amount of not-good-for-much desert and mountains which could become a solar powerhouse.

nordsieck 4y ago
> If worldwide carbon caps and tariffs become a thing, the oil and gas in the ground suddenly becomes nearly worthless if you can't use it. It may be worth less, but it won't be worthless. I have a hard time seeing another fuel source for long distance aviation (although we may move to synthesized fuel in the future). Companies will also need feedstock for plastics - that use won't be affected by carbon caps at all.
- rjzzleep 4y ago
  Those tariffs are also a joke in and of itself. As we can already from the oil price cap idea you can only enforce things when the world plays along, but looks increasingly like the global south is fed up by these dictates. So good luck enforcing carbon caps and tariffs when the majority of the world population doesn't play along. You can still have them, but ultimately it's the people in western societies that will pay the price with their own pensions and social services gradually degrading.
itsoktocry 4y ago
>If worldwide carbon caps and tariffs become a thing, the oil and gas in the ground suddenly becomes nearly worthless if you can't use it. 2nd and 3rd world countries are going to bathe in cheap oil when/if the 1st world bans it. How do you plan on enforcing the bans globally?
- londons_explore 4y ago
  We kinda enforce "don't trade slaves" globally... And "No child labour"... And "don't steal other countries ships when they sail near your country". "Don't emit more than your fair share of carbon" is just another rule like the others. If most countries agree, but there are a few dissenters, we can deal with it like other international disagreements - warnings, then sanctions, then war. Currently, we're far from that, because we don't have a majority of countries agreeing on carbon caps.
  - panick21_ 4y ago
    So the British Navy is gone blockade Africa so they cant import oil from the middle east? Great plan.
    - londons_explore 4y ago
      Nah - it'll go down like Venezuela [1]. The government of a country flagrantly ignores the internationally agreed carbon caps, and so some country or group of countries get together and sponsor a coup. It happened to Venezuela because they refused to align with US interests, and with other economic and political issues, they were an easy target. The wikipedia page [1] has a nice summary of the list of countries on each side of the dispute, and you can see a nice 'pro USA' and 'anti USA' divide. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuela#Since_2018 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuela#Since_2018
      - panick21_ 4y ago
        Sponsoring foreign queue is not actually that easy.

sonotathrowaway 4y ago

China has the fastest aging population in recorded human history, along with some of the worst demographics. What exact advantages do you see in that?

londons_explore 4y ago
I think China could easily fix their demographics if they wanted to. They have sufficient control of their population that if they said "everyone of child bearing age must try for a child this year and next", they'd probably double their population within 2 years. The 'demographic problem' is only a problem because they don't see it as an issue worth fixing.
- zztop44 4y ago
  I think this is wildly off base. Lots of them don’t want to have kids. The government has many ways to influence the public. But I don’t think it’s true to say that they have so much control over their populace that they could do anything like double their population in 20 years, let alone 2. People in China are just people, right? Many of them don’t want to have kids. What’s the government gonna do? Of course, hypothetically, the government blocks people from leaving the country and literally forces them to procreate but that’s getting a bit imaginative (it would be turning the China that exists today into something very different). Realistically I think the government is worried about their demographic problem and is using every reasonable tool in their arsenal to attempt to address it.
  - epicureanideal 4y ago
    > People in China are just people, right? Many of them don’t want to have kids. What’s the government gonna do? See the Cultural Revolution and Great Famine etc for examples of what it can do. Basically anything.
    - CogitoCogito 4y ago
      > See the Cultural Revolution and Great Famine etc for examples of what it can do. Basically anything. Even assuming China is all powerful and can achieve "anything" here, the policies would still have a latency of an entire generation. Unless you include time-travel as part of "anything".

amusingimpala75 4y ago

Give it a few years. The one child policy, even though it’s gone now, it really going to mess up population growth.

jacooper 4y ago
By how much? At best its going to be 25%, which is still around 1 billion people.

epicureanideal 4y ago

The US could solve the population difference fairly easily by having some family friendly policies, and walking back laws that are destructive to families such as by incentivizing divorce etc.