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Their stock is falling because of future demand issues coming up with the whole semiconductor industry. Just this week, expanded export bans to China were annou

by sct202 4y ago

Their stock is falling because of future demand issues coming up with the whole semiconductor industry. Just this week, expanded export bans to China were announced and are an uncertainty on how much volume will be impacted in the future, because no one knows what will get an exemption or not.

pavlov 4y ago
Also the long-term uncertainty of Taiwan's political situation will continue to weigh on TSMC's stock price. For example, investors may be afraid that there might be some ominous signals coming at this week's National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, held every five years.
- MangoCoffee 4y ago
  >Also the long-term uncertainty of Taiwan's political situation Republic of China move to Taiwan since 1945. that's over 70+ years. that's one person born and into retired age. you can question every country on Earth for its long term uncertainty. North Korea constantly shoot off Nukes. Russia is invading Ukraine now. Saudi and Yemen. American just recently left Afghanistan to Taliban after 20+ yrs of Nation building. 70+ yrs peaceful times in Taiwan with some up and down with China seem pretty stable to me. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan#Republic_of_China_(1945%E2%80%93present) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan#Republic_of_China_(1945... edit: even USA have some long term uncertainty after Jan 6 (United States Capitol attack or protest?) Trump-backed election deniers is about to be elected into the US Congress.
photochemsyn 4y ago
The U.S. position on the entire Chinese semiconductor industry is getting increasingly ridiculous. It's not just chips, since China is the one country that's developed efficient monocrystalline silicon ingot production at scale, and solar panels made with that material are far superior to anything made in the USA currently. The USA's financialized short-term thinking has resulted in a failure to develop basic technological infrastructure capability, and China is now in the lead - so the response is, stop trading with China on all things silicon? This is the Tonya Harding team's 'let's try to win by kneecapping our superior competition' mentality, and it's doomed to failure, if not in the short term, than certainly in the long term.
- londons_explore 4y ago
  It's a move part of the bigger world picture. A large chunk of experts see China as the likely next world superpower. The USA, current world superpower, probably can't prevent that happening, but they can make moves to delay it. This move might delay it happening by a few months. Combine with lots of other small moves, and the USA might get another few years of world superpower status, even if the moves hurt both countries in the end.
  - nordsieck 4y ago
    > A large chunk of experts see China as the likely next world superpower. The USA, current world superpower, probably can't prevent that happening, but they can make moves to delay it. We'll see. Lots of people thought Japan would overtake the US as well, and that didn't exactly pan out. China has some real problems between the legacy of their one child policy and their current real estate investment crisis. It's certainly possible that they overcome those issues, but it's far from guaranteed.
    - victor106 4y ago
      I agree. I was of the view that China could be the next super power and overtake the US. But two things changed my view:- 1. COVID and their response to it. China still does not have a good vaccine and they still rely on lockdowns. That speaks a lot to how backward China is in basic sciences. 2. The move to remove term limits for the president. History tells us that one person can’t be relied on to make good long term decisions for a country specially a communist country. https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/03/11/592694991/china-removes-presidential-term-limits-enabling-xi-jinping-to-rule-indefinitely https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/03/11/592694991...
      - londons_explore 4y ago
        > COVID and their response to it. China still does not have a good vaccine and they still rely on lockdowns. That speaks a lot to how backward China is in basic sciences. I think this was a policy move more than a lack of science understanding. In fact, leadership in China is very science-heavy. Time will tell, but it's actually looking like possibly a good move, now that 5% of the UK population is not working due to long term sickness, the highest ever[1], and covid is looking like a contributory factor. I could even imagine China extending their lockdown policy to other diseases which might have long term population-wide effects, like influenza. The main downside of such a policy is you need to have effectively closed borders forever, otherwise travellers re-introduce diseases from other countries into yours. [1]: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63204333 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63204333

by sct202 4y ago

pavlov 4y ago

Also the long-term uncertainty of Taiwan's political situation will continue to weigh on TSMC's stock price. For example, investors may be afraid that there might be some ominous signals coming at this week's National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, held every five years.

MangoCoffee 4y ago
>Also the long-term uncertainty of Taiwan's political situation Republic of China move to Taiwan since 1945. that's over 70+ years. that's one person born and into retired age. you can question every country on Earth for its long term uncertainty. North Korea constantly shoot off Nukes. Russia is invading Ukraine now. Saudi and Yemen. American just recently left Afghanistan to Taliban after 20+ yrs of Nation building. 70+ yrs peaceful times in Taiwan with some up and down with China seem pretty stable to me. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan#Republic_of_China_(1945%E2%80%93present) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan#Republic_of_China_(1945... edit: even USA have some long term uncertainty after Jan 6 (United States Capitol attack or protest?) Trump-backed election deniers is about to be elected into the US Congress.

photochemsyn 4y ago

The U.S. position on the entire Chinese semiconductor industry is getting increasingly ridiculous. It's not just chips, since China is the one country that's developed efficient monocrystalline silicon ingot production at scale, and solar panels made with that material are far superior to anything made in the USA currently. The USA's financialized short-term thinking has resulted in a failure to develop basic technological infrastructure capability, and China is now in the lead - so the response is, stop trading with China on all things silicon? This is the Tonya Harding team's 'let's try to win by kneecapping our superior competition' mentality, and it's doomed to failure, if not in the short term, than certainly in the long term.

londons_explore 4y ago
It's a move part of the bigger world picture. A large chunk of experts see China as the likely next world superpower. The USA, current world superpower, probably can't prevent that happening, but they can make moves to delay it. This move might delay it happening by a few months. Combine with lots of other small moves, and the USA might get another few years of world superpower status, even if the moves hurt both countries in the end.
- nordsieck 4y ago
  > A large chunk of experts see China as the likely next world superpower. The USA, current world superpower, probably can't prevent that happening, but they can make moves to delay it. We'll see. Lots of people thought Japan would overtake the US as well, and that didn't exactly pan out. China has some real problems between the legacy of their one child policy and their current real estate investment crisis. It's certainly possible that they overcome those issues, but it's far from guaranteed.
  - victor106 4y ago
    I agree. I was of the view that China could be the next super power and overtake the US. But two things changed my view:- 1. COVID and their response to it. China still does not have a good vaccine and they still rely on lockdowns. That speaks a lot to how backward China is in basic sciences. 2. The move to remove term limits for the president. History tells us that one person can’t be relied on to make good long term decisions for a country specially a communist country. https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/03/11/592694991/china-removes-presidential-term-limits-enabling-xi-jinping-to-rule-indefinitely https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/03/11/592694991...
    - londons_explore 4y ago
      > COVID and their response to it. China still does not have a good vaccine and they still rely on lockdowns. That speaks a lot to how backward China is in basic sciences. I think this was a policy move more than a lack of science understanding. In fact, leadership in China is very science-heavy. Time will tell, but it's actually looking like possibly a good move, now that 5% of the UK population is not working due to long term sickness, the highest ever[1], and covid is looking like a contributory factor. I could even imagine China extending their lockdown policy to other diseases which might have long term population-wide effects, like influenza. The main downside of such a policy is you need to have effectively closed borders forever, otherwise travellers re-introduce diseases from other countries into yours. [1]: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63204333 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63204333