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I am not a scientist, but I dream of being one: Does the decrease in nuclear energy production by Germany get completely offset by the increase in nuclear produ

I am not a scientist, but I dream of being one: Does the decrease in nuclear energy production by Germany get completely offset by the increase in nuclear production and enrichment by France? Thereby making Germany’s decision to shut down their nuclear plants moot?

qualifiedai 4y ago
France gets up to 75% of their energy from nuclear. So the answer to your question is No. Germany’s decision to close down their nuclear and rely on gas from terrorist state is one of the most profound mistakes of the last 3 decades with serious negative consequences for the Germany and the world.
- pshirshov 4y ago
  Was it just a honest mistake?
  - marcosdumay 4y ago
    You expect people to do baseless speculation about politics here on HN or do you expect somebody with inside information of some crime to decide to speak, in public, just because you prompted? Either way, you won't get what you expect.
- jonp888 4y ago
  Over the past 30 years Germany has transitioned from 30% to 0% nuclear power, meanwhile solar + wind has gone from 0% to 30%. Gas(from all sources) has grown from 5% to 15% of power in that time. It is in no way relied on and your hyperbolic description is absurd.
- adrianN 4y ago
  Ackshually, Germany relies on coal instead of nuclear. Nuclear and gas serve two completely different purposes. Germany uses a little less gas for electricity today than ten years ago when a couple of nuclear power plants were still running.
- r00fus 4y ago
  Thanks Gerhardt & Angela!
legitster 4y ago
Probably not. Even if French capacity was going to increase enough to supply all of Germany, it would take several years. Even before they shut down their nuclear plants, Germany's top source of energy was still lignite coal.
PaulHoule 4y ago
Russia is the largest exporter of Uranium in the world by far. The supplies of Uranium in the ground are more evenly distributed than oil but the actual refining and enrichment are more concentrated. In the short term there is a glut of enriched U which has suppressed the addition of capacity but in the long term there will be a shortage unless the world adds capacity. If sanctions on Russia persist that situation is going to develop more rapidly. The U.S. used to enrich uranium by gas diffusion at the Y12 plant at Oak Ridge. That has been decommissioned because it takes two orders of magnitude more energy to run than the gas centrifuge process. The U.S. has tried to build a gas centrifuge plant but so far (unlike Pakistan and Iran) it has failed to do so. The U.S. is now seriously talking about building a SILEX plant which uses lasers and should be cheaper overall. The market for enriched U could also be impacted by fuel reprocessing which could produce a significant amount of U and also Pu fuel though globally only the French and the Russians have been successful at producing commercial mixed oxide fuel.
- legitster 4y ago
  I was under the impression that the lack of US enrichment is more of a political thing. Demand for nuclear stalled, no one wanted an enrichment facility in their district, and plants had enough fuel from foreign markets - the only purpose for the US government to build new enrichment capacity was to support the Department of Defence. The actual efficiency of the plants was never an issue.
- m00x 4y ago
  No it isn't. It's 6th in the list, half of even Canada. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_uranium_production https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_uranium_p... Kazakhstan is the top at 22k tonnes, while Russia sits at 2.6k tonnes.
  - legitster 4y ago
    I think OP was speaking to refined Uranium. Kazakhstan has no refinement facilities - it's all done in Russia. https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/conversion-enrichment-and-fabrication/uranium-enrichment.aspx https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-c...
Xylakant 4y ago
At the moment, about half of France’s nuclear power plants are offline - partially due to lack of cooling water (which should resolve itself as the summer ends), partially due to maintenance issues. Germany had been exporting energy to france. You’ll have to wait a long time until France makes up for the closed German power plants. https://www.rnd.de/politik/akws-in-frankreich-drohen-im-winter-blackouts-6MUN7F4ZGNEABLEL4AIMT2KHAA.html https://www.rnd.de/politik/akws-in-frankreich-drohen-im-wint... (In German)
- Kuinox 4y ago
  > partially due to lack of cooling water (which should resolve itself as the summer ends) I don't know where you live, but summer is already ended here. Water is not lacking.
- Nodraak 4y ago
  Please look at yearly averages to avoid cherry picking. Maintenance is planned every autumn to make sure that all the nuclear plants work when they are needed, ie. during winter.

qualifiedai 4y ago

France gets up to 75% of their energy from nuclear. So the answer to your question is No. Germany’s decision to close down their nuclear and rely on gas from terrorist state is one of the most profound mistakes of the last 3 decades with serious negative consequences for the Germany and the world.

pshirshov 4y ago
Was it just a honest mistake?
- marcosdumay 4y ago
  You expect people to do baseless speculation about politics here on HN or do you expect somebody with inside information of some crime to decide to speak, in public, just because you prompted? Either way, you won't get what you expect.
jonp888 4y ago
Over the past 30 years Germany has transitioned from 30% to 0% nuclear power, meanwhile solar + wind has gone from 0% to 30%. Gas(from all sources) has grown from 5% to 15% of power in that time. It is in no way relied on and your hyperbolic description is absurd.
adrianN 4y ago
Ackshually, Germany relies on coal instead of nuclear. Nuclear and gas serve two completely different purposes. Germany uses a little less gas for electricity today than ten years ago when a couple of nuclear power plants were still running.
r00fus 4y ago
Thanks Gerhardt & Angela!

legitster 4y ago

Probably not. Even if French capacity was going to increase enough to supply all of Germany, it would take several years. Even before they shut down their nuclear plants, Germany's top source of energy was still lignite coal.

PaulHoule 4y ago

Russia is the largest exporter of Uranium in the world by far. The supplies of Uranium in the ground are more evenly distributed than oil but the actual refining and enrichment are more concentrated. In the short term there is a glut of enriched U which has suppressed the addition of capacity but in the long term there will be a shortage unless the world adds capacity. If sanctions on Russia persist that situation is going to develop more rapidly. The U.S. used to enrich uranium by gas diffusion at the Y12 plant at Oak Ridge. That has been decommissioned because it takes two orders of magnitude more energy to run than the gas centrifuge process. The U.S. has tried to build a gas centrifuge plant but so far (unlike Pakistan and Iran) it has failed to do so. The U.S. is now seriously talking about building a SILEX plant which uses lasers and should be cheaper overall. The market for enriched U could also be impacted by fuel reprocessing which could produce a significant amount of U and also Pu fuel though globally only the French and the Russians have been successful at producing commercial mixed oxide fuel.

legitster 4y ago
I was under the impression that the lack of US enrichment is more of a political thing. Demand for nuclear stalled, no one wanted an enrichment facility in their district, and plants had enough fuel from foreign markets - the only purpose for the US government to build new enrichment capacity was to support the Department of Defence. The actual efficiency of the plants was never an issue.
m00x 4y ago
No it isn't. It's 6th in the list, half of even Canada. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_uranium_production https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_uranium_p... Kazakhstan is the top at 22k tonnes, while Russia sits at 2.6k tonnes.
- legitster 4y ago
  I think OP was speaking to refined Uranium. Kazakhstan has no refinement facilities - it's all done in Russia. https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/conversion-enrichment-and-fabrication/uranium-enrichment.aspx https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-c...

Xylakant 4y ago

At the moment, about half of France’s nuclear power plants are offline - partially due to lack of cooling water (which should resolve itself as the summer ends), partially due to maintenance issues. Germany had been exporting energy to france. You’ll have to wait a long time until France makes up for the closed German power plants. https://www.rnd.de/politik/akws-in-frankreich-drohen-im-winter-blackouts-6MUN7F4ZGNEABLEL4AIMT2KHAA.html https://www.rnd.de/politik/akws-in-frankreich-drohen-im-wint... (In German)

Kuinox 4y ago
> partially due to lack of cooling water (which should resolve itself as the summer ends) I don't know where you live, but summer is already ended here. Water is not lacking.
Nodraak 4y ago
Please look at yearly averages to avoid cherry picking. Maintenance is planned every autumn to make sure that all the nuclear plants work when they are needed, ie. during winter.