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I'm still going to use electoral-vote.com to track the election, because it is so much easier to see who is going to win and to check out the map. The stats ar
by antiismist 18y ago
I'm still going to use electoral-vote.com to track the election, because it is so much easier to see who is going to win and to check out the map.
The stats are of course interesting, but isn't it insane to have a "win percentage" down to the tenth of a percent?
- robg 18y agoNot when the WPCT is based on 10,000 state-by-state daily simulations with every new stream of polls included.
- antiismist 18y agoI agree that the numbers reflect the model. But there is no way that the model can fit reality that well. So it is a misleading number.
- robg 18y agoIt's a probability estimate. There is no reality to which it corresponds - that's the popular vote and electoral college projections. And there I expect the model will do exceedingly well, as it did during the primaries.
- moonpolysoft 18y agoI think they run something like 10000 simulations per polling update, so having the win percentage down to a tenth of a percent is significant.
- jonknee 18y agoHow is it easier? FiveThirtyEight has all that electoral-vote does and a lot more. You can just go and check the map, but you can also see a lot more data.