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Over 70 cruise missiles in multiple waves. Kh-101 at $13mil a pop makes it $1B just to target civilian population and infrastructure.

by rasz 4y ago

viraptor 4y ago
An interesting article just under this one: https://mezha.media/en/2022/10/10/massive-attack-on-ukrainian-cities-air-defense-of-the-afu-shot-down-45-out-of-80-missiles/ https://mezha.media/en/2022/10/10/massive-attack-on-ukrainia... 45 out of 80 missiles shot down. I suspect they're not on a high alert right now away from the frontline, so that sounds like a good result. I wonder if I'm right or is the system mostly automated and "being ready" wouldn't make a difference.
- anovikov 4y ago
  This "system" mostly consists of men on duty with MANPADS. They either shoot the missile down or, if they don't manage to because it flies overhead too quickly, call the next guy in the direction it flew to, informing them that a missile is incoming for that direction (it will be a short time, 1-2 minutes). So the next guy will be fully prepared and knows where to look. That simple. If missiles flew too high for MANPADS, they'd be very easily shot down by proper SAMs or fighters, they survive by flying under the radar.
  - ISL 4y ago
    Sounds like a pretty good system.
    - anovikov 4y ago
      It is. It's also one Russians can't probably do anything about.
  - viraptor 4y ago
    Well "automated" deserves some quotes. The main point was "can they be more ready and more efficient the next time", whether "automated" means automatic response, or something beeping at a person with a launcher, or more people with MANPADs.
    - anovikov 4y ago
      It's not like "next time". This is not an unprecedented attack. Russians simply launched a week's worth of missiles in one hour. That's what they can produce + restore from Soviet stocks. There is no "escalation" in that sense, they simply caused "shock and awe" by concentrating everything they normally shoot in a week, in one salvo.
  - rjtavares 4y ago
    Here's a good video with an example (from today, I think): https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1579433935075147777 https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1579433935075147777
    - anovikov 4y ago
      Yes that's about how it works. Around a 100 of these groups of 3-4 guys strategically placed all over Ukraine is enough to ensure ~50% losses of those missiles. Less if they are given a pickup truck so they can move ~10km laterally in ~10 min.
- manholio 4y ago
  If so, provoking this Russian vengeance strike is the best feat of the Ukrainian army by a mile. If you can bleed 1 billion in military spending with the cost of a few deaths and an lorry filled with explosives, that's by far the most effective way to win a war: you will quickly bankrupt Russia while your own army is still able to fight. Sounds much like the V2 rocket program used by Hitler to punish the British for their continental bombing incursions; it was largely irrelevant militarily but very expensive.
  - Moldoteck 4y ago
    Do you know how much money ru gets from fuels alone? From eu region alone? Billions... This means ru can shot for days these kind of rockets and they will still be at profit... I really doubt Ukr is wants this kind of terror. Loosing civilians can be sometimes much worse compared to loosing troops
    - dragontamer 4y ago
      No one wants to see civilians die. But killing civilians doesn't change Ukrainian military strength at all. That's why such an attack is stupid and barbaric. It changes nothing about the war and just manages to waste Russian money and kill innocent people. If Russia's best response is really just attacking Universities and parks, it means that the Ukrainian army is invisible to Russia and Russia has no ability to strike the troops. Russia seemingly just confirmed what we all were thinking, they have no ability to beat the Ukrainian army anymore, and have decided to simply attack civilians out of frustration. ------ In contrast, the destruction of the Crimean bridge destroys one of two railroads that are supplying the Russian army in the south. Logistics for troop supplies are ruined. The strategic implications are obvious, and Russia seemingly has no way to stop the Ukrainian southern counter-offensive... And now has roughly 1/2 of the military supplies moving forward.
      - mamonster 4y ago
        Except they haven't only destroyed universities and parks. They have also hit the power plants in most of the cities. Kharkov was out of electricity in the morning, so were parts of other major cities. Now imagine electricity being out but in winter.
londons_explore 4y ago
The same missile can carry a nuclear warhead. I'm guessing the whole thing is a show that any of those missiles might have had a nuclear bomb in, and Ukraine would have very little chance of shooting it down, since they wouldn't know which one to aim at. I'd guess it's a negotiating tactic... The actual targets are mostly irrelevant.
- Overtonwindow 4y ago
  I'm curious, could they? I don't know anything about missiles, but it would seem logical that it takes a specific missile and detonation system to deliver a nuke. Could any missile delivery system carry a nuke?
  - ZiiS 4y ago
    These missiles specifically can; many can't.
- rasz 4y ago
  OSINT community is monitoring ru nuclear infrastructure, no doubt US military is doing the same using mil sats. Im fairly confident US will know if ru are preparing to load nuclear warheads, and will pass this information (maybe, depending on US own agenda, how close to elections etc) just like they were sending constant escalating warnings (sadly ignored) in February.
  - wefarrell 4y ago
    I wouldn’t say the warnings in February were ignored. Sure they were publicly downplayed but it’s clear the Ukrainians had been preparing and they crushed the force that attempted to take Kyiv.
    - rasz 4y ago
      https://simpleflying.com/an-225-destruction-blame/ https://simpleflying.com/an-225-destruction-blame/ >"There was no decision to transfer the plane anywhere. You could do Rzeszów, you could do Leipzig. Why Leipzig? Because on January 26th, there was an appeal to management from the [NATO Support and Procurement Agency] via [Antonov Logistics (Germany)] for the relocation of all our aircraft. Flight personnel, personnel, spare parts, etc [could be transported] to Leipzig in light of a possible war. There was no answer to this inquiry...And as I said, there was no strong-willed decision to transfer [the aircraft] between February 15th and 23rd. https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/biden-zelensky-ignored-warnings-about-attack-kyiv-disagrees.html https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/biden-zelensky-ignored-... >U.S. President Joe Biden said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ignored warnings that Russia would invade his country ahead of the February 24 aggression. “I know a lot of people thought I was maybe exaggerating, but I knew, and we had data to sustain, he was going in off the border. There was no doubt. And Zelensky did not want to hear it, nor did a lot of people,” Biden said on Friday, June 10, during a political fundraiser in Los Angeles.

Over 70 cruise missiles in multiple waves. Kh-101 at $13mil a pop makes it $1B just to target civilian population and infrastructure.

by rasz 4y ago

Over 70 cruise missiles in multiple waves. Kh-101 at $13mil a pop makes it $1B just to target civilian population and infrastructure.

viraptor 4y ago

An interesting article just under this one: https://mezha.media/en/2022/10/10/massive-attack-on-ukrainian-cities-air-defense-of-the-afu-shot-down-45-out-of-80-missiles/ https://mezha.media/en/2022/10/10/massive-attack-on-ukrainia... 45 out of 80 missiles shot down. I suspect they're not on a high alert right now away from the frontline, so that sounds like a good result. I wonder if I'm right or is the system mostly automated and "being ready" wouldn't make a difference.

anovikov 4y ago
This "system" mostly consists of men on duty with MANPADS. They either shoot the missile down or, if they don't manage to because it flies overhead too quickly, call the next guy in the direction it flew to, informing them that a missile is incoming for that direction (it will be a short time, 1-2 minutes). So the next guy will be fully prepared and knows where to look. That simple. If missiles flew too high for MANPADS, they'd be very easily shot down by proper SAMs or fighters, they survive by flying under the radar.
- ISL 4y ago
  Sounds like a pretty good system.
  - anovikov 4y ago
    It is. It's also one Russians can't probably do anything about.
- viraptor 4y ago
  Well "automated" deserves some quotes. The main point was "can they be more ready and more efficient the next time", whether "automated" means automatic response, or something beeping at a person with a launcher, or more people with MANPADs.
  - anovikov 4y ago
    It's not like "next time". This is not an unprecedented attack. Russians simply launched a week's worth of missiles in one hour. That's what they can produce + restore from Soviet stocks. There is no "escalation" in that sense, they simply caused "shock and awe" by concentrating everything they normally shoot in a week, in one salvo.
- rjtavares 4y ago
  Here's a good video with an example (from today, I think): https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1579433935075147777 https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1579433935075147777
  - anovikov 4y ago
    Yes that's about how it works. Around a 100 of these groups of 3-4 guys strategically placed all over Ukraine is enough to ensure ~50% losses of those missiles. Less if they are given a pickup truck so they can move ~10km laterally in ~10 min.
manholio 4y ago
If so, provoking this Russian vengeance strike is the best feat of the Ukrainian army by a mile. If you can bleed 1 billion in military spending with the cost of a few deaths and an lorry filled with explosives, that's by far the most effective way to win a war: you will quickly bankrupt Russia while your own army is still able to fight. Sounds much like the V2 rocket program used by Hitler to punish the British for their continental bombing incursions; it was largely irrelevant militarily but very expensive.
- Moldoteck 4y ago
  Do you know how much money ru gets from fuels alone? From eu region alone? Billions... This means ru can shot for days these kind of rockets and they will still be at profit... I really doubt Ukr is wants this kind of terror. Loosing civilians can be sometimes much worse compared to loosing troops
  - dragontamer 4y ago
    No one wants to see civilians die. But killing civilians doesn't change Ukrainian military strength at all. That's why such an attack is stupid and barbaric. It changes nothing about the war and just manages to waste Russian money and kill innocent people. If Russia's best response is really just attacking Universities and parks, it means that the Ukrainian army is invisible to Russia and Russia has no ability to strike the troops. Russia seemingly just confirmed what we all were thinking, they have no ability to beat the Ukrainian army anymore, and have decided to simply attack civilians out of frustration. ------ In contrast, the destruction of the Crimean bridge destroys one of two railroads that are supplying the Russian army in the south. Logistics for troop supplies are ruined. The strategic implications are obvious, and Russia seemingly has no way to stop the Ukrainian southern counter-offensive... And now has roughly 1/2 of the military supplies moving forward.
    - mamonster 4y ago
      Except they haven't only destroyed universities and parks. They have also hit the power plants in most of the cities. Kharkov was out of electricity in the morning, so were parts of other major cities. Now imagine electricity being out but in winter.

londons_explore 4y ago

The same missile can carry a nuclear warhead. I'm guessing the whole thing is a show that any of those missiles might have had a nuclear bomb in, and Ukraine would have very little chance of shooting it down, since they wouldn't know which one to aim at. I'd guess it's a negotiating tactic... The actual targets are mostly irrelevant.

Overtonwindow 4y ago
I'm curious, could they? I don't know anything about missiles, but it would seem logical that it takes a specific missile and detonation system to deliver a nuke. Could any missile delivery system carry a nuke?
- ZiiS 4y ago
  These missiles specifically can; many can't.
rasz 4y ago
OSINT community is monitoring ru nuclear infrastructure, no doubt US military is doing the same using mil sats. Im fairly confident US will know if ru are preparing to load nuclear warheads, and will pass this information (maybe, depending on US own agenda, how close to elections etc) just like they were sending constant escalating warnings (sadly ignored) in February.
- wefarrell 4y ago
  I wouldn’t say the warnings in February were ignored. Sure they were publicly downplayed but it’s clear the Ukrainians had been preparing and they crushed the force that attempted to take Kyiv.
  - rasz 4y ago
    https://simpleflying.com/an-225-destruction-blame/ https://simpleflying.com/an-225-destruction-blame/ >"There was no decision to transfer the plane anywhere. You could do Rzeszów, you could do Leipzig. Why Leipzig? Because on January 26th, there was an appeal to management from the [NATO Support and Procurement Agency] via [Antonov Logistics (Germany)] for the relocation of all our aircraft. Flight personnel, personnel, spare parts, etc [could be transported] to Leipzig in light of a possible war. There was no answer to this inquiry...And as I said, there was no strong-willed decision to transfer [the aircraft] between February 15th and 23rd. https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/biden-zelensky-ignored-warnings-about-attack-kyiv-disagrees.html https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/biden-zelensky-ignored-... >U.S. President Joe Biden said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ignored warnings that Russia would invade his country ahead of the February 24 aggression. “I know a lot of people thought I was maybe exaggerating, but I knew, and we had data to sustain, he was going in off the border. There was no doubt. And Zelensky did not want to hear it, nor did a lot of people,” Biden said on Friday, June 10, during a political fundraiser in Los Angeles.