7 ms·

Lol. There are no experienced manufacturing staff in the US anymore, full stop. This isn't a matter of the price of labor. The US has forgotten how to manufactu

by fny 4y ago

Lol. There are no experienced manufacturing staff in the US anymore, full stop. This isn't a matter of the price of labor. The US has forgotten how to manufacture things. Do you remember when Apple stopped making the Mac Pro in Austin because we couldn't manufacture enough screws? [0] Everyone gave up post '08. The attrition of blue collar work overseas has been painful, so the recommendation writ large has been to avoid going into blue collar work. Even now if a worker takes on a $20 an hour job, they have no guarantee their manufacturing job won't be shipped overseas again. So why choose that career path for even $25 or $30 an hour? It's risky. The energy sector has this problem more severely than any other in part because everyone keeps talking about phasing out fossil fuels. How much would I have to pay you to take a job that a quarter of the country wants removed? No one wants a blue collar job anymore either. That was the whole point of going to college: you become educated for the right to sit on your ass for eight hours and act like you're doing something worthwhile. And now you can do that from home. Compare that to working a skilled manufacturing job where your every movement is measured in a country. [0]: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/technology/iphones-apple-china-made.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/technology/iphones-apple-...

lowbloodsugar 4y ago
>they have no guarantee their manufacturing job won't be shipped overseas again. Indeed. This is all just temporary work until China recovers from COVID.
- Phrenzy 4y ago
  IMO China is on the way out. Their real estate market is crashing, and that is bring down the banking industry. The Zero Covid policy is crashing their economy, and the younger generations would rather "Let it Rot." The CCP might not make it to the end of the 2020s. If they somehow get all the above sorted out, the demographic charts show that will be the time they run out of young people. But it is worse than that. The charts may have overcounted the younger generations by up to 100 million people. The de-globalization that is going on, and the fact they can't feed their population, means they will have to make drastic changes. They may even have to de-urbanize large sections of their population to keep hundreds of millions from starving. China is on the way out.
  - formerkrogemp 4y ago
    Maybe.
  - throwaway12388 4y ago
    Never underestimate your enemy
    - deltasevennine 4y ago
      China is not the enemy. That is illusory. China does not want your blood, The US does not want China's blood. All China and the US want is to be better than the other. That makes them rivals. Very different from enemies. The irony is both rivals practically live in a symbiosis. We are rivals but survival for both China and the US involves mutual cooperation.
      - derekbaker783 4y ago
        Yeah, sure. /s
      - throwaway12388 4y ago
        have you seen Chinese media? They want to become superpower and USA doenst want to loose that power thats how they became enemies as simple as that
  - A4ET8a8uTh0 4y ago
    I typically do not respond to posts about China partly, because I simply do not believe I know enough about it to comment appropriately. Still, what I do know is that accurate information about China in general is a lot harder to obtain that information about US. From get go this means that any discussion about demographics, real estate or banking is more speculative than anything else. Worse, it is hard to rely on anecdata, because of how large China's population is and how ( as I learned recently ) un-united China's population is ( when compared to US ). Those two factors alone should make one hesitate with offering any major predictions on its trajectory. I am not automatically saying you are wrong, but with exception of real estate, there is little I can find where somewhat verifiable data seem to support it.
chii 4y ago
> So why choose that career path for even $25 or $30 an hour? It's risky. that's just a long way of saying the people aren't paid enough to go into the career. Imagine if these manufacturer workers get paid as much as a doctor would. People would be rushing to join. Of course, the reason they can't be paid as high, is because their output isn't that valuable - the customers of their output expect a low price.
- fny 4y ago
  If the pay only lasts for a year, you might reconsider it as a career path.
  - s1artibartfast 4y ago
    But you would be a fool to do so.
tb_technical 4y ago
We manufacture arms, ordinance , and aerospace craft pretty well. Also Toyota cars, believe it or not?
- chordalkeyboard 4y ago
  https://theaviationist.com/2022/10/05/south-koreas-f-35as-grounded-by-malfunctions-172-times-over-18-months/ https://theaviationist.com/2022/10/05/south-koreas-f-35as-gr... https://news.usni.org/2021/01/19/navy-calls-freedom-lcs-propulsion-problem-class-wide-defect-wont-take-new-ships-until-fixed https://news.usni.org/2021/01/19/navy-calls-freedom-lcs-prop... https://www.defensenews.com/news/your-navy/2020/08/21/watchdog-75-percent-of-sub-and-aircraft-carrier-maintenance-ended-late-in-recent-years/ https://www.defensenews.com/news/your-navy/2020/08/21/watchd... Not very well anymore, we can't even keep the old stuff operational, let alone make new stuff that works.
  - tb_technical 4y ago
    The first point about the f35 is controversial for a variety of reasons - look up the reformers. They're still around today, and they still criticize the f35s metrics in all the ways they don't matter. Secondly, the vast majority of strike craft aren't ready for war in peacetime. This might be seen as a remarkable problem with the f35, if it didn't apply to many other strike craft the air force operate. Second point was a known flaw with a long history that was overlooked, because, frankly, the LCS is a jobs program. But here's some of the history of the problem: when the LCS program was started, the demonstrators had appropriately sized combining gears - although it was likely the company underbid a bit to get on the contract. Mid-construction of future vessels the company that provided these combining gears was bought by another company. They updated their leadtime to three years per unit (each ship needs two) and were thusly booted from the contract. The next best size combining gear (from another supplier) wasn't good enough. And now you know the history. On top of all this, the companies building these ships are now flushing the oil and remachining the combining gears to be more durable - so they're fixing this problem. Third point, this is a point on maintenance of some super large ships - which is both difficult and can only be carried out at ONE shipyard in the whole USA for the two newest carrier classes (Newport News). A slipping of the maintenance schedule would be natural with a full work schedule - and they have their hands full building the new Ford class supercarriers. You've selected three problems on complex systems in a country that makes hundreds of different defense products. I think my point still stands.
mickdeek86 4y ago
I'm in industrial controls/automation and also electrical maintenance, currently in-house. We do have experienced manufacturing staff in this country, most of them are immigrants. Technical jobs such as mine are paid pretty well, but especially with our aging manufacturing infrastructure (old, decaying plants) - which China et al are decades away from - there's not enough skill to go around and so we tend to be very overworked, causing further attrition. I guess my question is why can't we just import more talent/skill from places like China, just as we've done in science and medicine? People still want to come here. The article isn't clear on exactly where the shortages are eg technicians, QA, forklift drivers, operators. The un-/low-skilled positions are again largely filled with immigrants as it is. These jobs, like agriculture (where I worked in a past life), are not for the faint of heart. As for job security, we Millenials giggle dejectedly to even imagine that to be a thing. Your point on the college-educated bias against blue-collar work is apt; even if it's better money many simply don't want to accept that we paid through the nose for something that doesn't pan out economically. Not clear on the meaning of your last sentence ie 'movement is measured in a country'. Do you mean PRC being totalitarian?
- sanxiyn 4y ago
  I agree immigration is a solution. US immigration is literally a trillion dollar bill lying on the sidewalk. For some mysterious reasons US doesn't want to pick it up.
  - curious_cat_163 4y ago
    It is likely because about 25% of the country would not like a more liberal immigration policy. There are merits to immigration but the politics around this has become toxic. I do not know how the US gets back on this horse without having bipartisan legislation. Such legislation looks pretty hard to be supported by a majority of the republic party’s primary voters. So, the question is what gives. Any one sided policy moves on this by the Democratic Party would likely face risk to be reversed.
    - KerrAvon 4y ago
w0de0 4y ago
> There are no experienced manufacturing workers… This isn't a matter of the price of labor. Nonetheless the shortage may be addressed by increasing the price. Witness the proliferation of software boot camps. I find myself confused this fundamental mechanism of free markets seems stuck for this market in this nation. Which hidden incentive(s) do I not comprehend? Is it simply that decades of business acumen and planning assume cheap labor, anchoring executives’ expectations well below what is now required?

by fny 4y ago

lowbloodsugar 4y ago

>they have no guarantee their manufacturing job won't be shipped overseas again. Indeed. This is all just temporary work until China recovers from COVID.

Phrenzy 4y ago
IMO China is on the way out. Their real estate market is crashing, and that is bring down the banking industry. The Zero Covid policy is crashing their economy, and the younger generations would rather "Let it Rot." The CCP might not make it to the end of the 2020s. If they somehow get all the above sorted out, the demographic charts show that will be the time they run out of young people. But it is worse than that. The charts may have overcounted the younger generations by up to 100 million people. The de-globalization that is going on, and the fact they can't feed their population, means they will have to make drastic changes. They may even have to de-urbanize large sections of their population to keep hundreds of millions from starving. China is on the way out.
- formerkrogemp 4y ago
  Maybe.
- throwaway12388 4y ago
  Never underestimate your enemy
  - deltasevennine 4y ago
    China is not the enemy. That is illusory. China does not want your blood, The US does not want China's blood. All China and the US want is to be better than the other. That makes them rivals. Very different from enemies. The irony is both rivals practically live in a symbiosis. We are rivals but survival for both China and the US involves mutual cooperation.
    - derekbaker783 4y ago
      Yeah, sure. /s
    - throwaway12388 4y ago
      have you seen Chinese media? They want to become superpower and USA doenst want to loose that power thats how they became enemies as simple as that
- A4ET8a8uTh0 4y ago
  I typically do not respond to posts about China partly, because I simply do not believe I know enough about it to comment appropriately. Still, what I do know is that accurate information about China in general is a lot harder to obtain that information about US. From get go this means that any discussion about demographics, real estate or banking is more speculative than anything else. Worse, it is hard to rely on anecdata, because of how large China's population is and how ( as I learned recently ) un-united China's population is ( when compared to US ). Those two factors alone should make one hesitate with offering any major predictions on its trajectory. I am not automatically saying you are wrong, but with exception of real estate, there is little I can find where somewhat verifiable data seem to support it.

chii 4y ago

> So why choose that career path for even $25 or $30 an hour? It's risky. that's just a long way of saying the people aren't paid enough to go into the career. Imagine if these manufacturer workers get paid as much as a doctor would. People would be rushing to join. Of course, the reason they can't be paid as high, is because their output isn't that valuable - the customers of their output expect a low price.

fny 4y ago
If the pay only lasts for a year, you might reconsider it as a career path.
- s1artibartfast 4y ago
  But you would be a fool to do so.

tb_technical 4y ago

We manufacture arms, ordinance , and aerospace craft pretty well. Also Toyota cars, believe it or not?

chordalkeyboard 4y ago
https://theaviationist.com/2022/10/05/south-koreas-f-35as-grounded-by-malfunctions-172-times-over-18-months/ https://theaviationist.com/2022/10/05/south-koreas-f-35as-gr... https://news.usni.org/2021/01/19/navy-calls-freedom-lcs-propulsion-problem-class-wide-defect-wont-take-new-ships-until-fixed https://news.usni.org/2021/01/19/navy-calls-freedom-lcs-prop... https://www.defensenews.com/news/your-navy/2020/08/21/watchdog-75-percent-of-sub-and-aircraft-carrier-maintenance-ended-late-in-recent-years/ https://www.defensenews.com/news/your-navy/2020/08/21/watchd... Not very well anymore, we can't even keep the old stuff operational, let alone make new stuff that works.
- tb_technical 4y ago
  The first point about the f35 is controversial for a variety of reasons - look up the reformers. They're still around today, and they still criticize the f35s metrics in all the ways they don't matter. Secondly, the vast majority of strike craft aren't ready for war in peacetime. This might be seen as a remarkable problem with the f35, if it didn't apply to many other strike craft the air force operate. Second point was a known flaw with a long history that was overlooked, because, frankly, the LCS is a jobs program. But here's some of the history of the problem: when the LCS program was started, the demonstrators had appropriately sized combining gears - although it was likely the company underbid a bit to get on the contract. Mid-construction of future vessels the company that provided these combining gears was bought by another company. They updated their leadtime to three years per unit (each ship needs two) and were thusly booted from the contract. The next best size combining gear (from another supplier) wasn't good enough. And now you know the history. On top of all this, the companies building these ships are now flushing the oil and remachining the combining gears to be more durable - so they're fixing this problem. Third point, this is a point on maintenance of some super large ships - which is both difficult and can only be carried out at ONE shipyard in the whole USA for the two newest carrier classes (Newport News). A slipping of the maintenance schedule would be natural with a full work schedule - and they have their hands full building the new Ford class supercarriers. You've selected three problems on complex systems in a country that makes hundreds of different defense products. I think my point still stands.

mickdeek86 4y ago

I'm in industrial controls/automation and also electrical maintenance, currently in-house. We do have experienced manufacturing staff in this country, most of them are immigrants. Technical jobs such as mine are paid pretty well, but especially with our aging manufacturing infrastructure (old, decaying plants) - which China et al are decades away from - there's not enough skill to go around and so we tend to be very overworked, causing further attrition. I guess my question is why can't we just import more talent/skill from places like China, just as we've done in science and medicine? People still want to come here. The article isn't clear on exactly where the shortages are eg technicians, QA, forklift drivers, operators. The un-/low-skilled positions are again largely filled with immigrants as it is. These jobs, like agriculture (where I worked in a past life), are not for the faint of heart. As for job security, we Millenials giggle dejectedly to even imagine that to be a thing. Your point on the college-educated bias against blue-collar work is apt; even if it's better money many simply don't want to accept that we paid through the nose for something that doesn't pan out economically. Not clear on the meaning of your last sentence ie 'movement is measured in a country'. Do you mean PRC being totalitarian?

sanxiyn 4y ago
I agree immigration is a solution. US immigration is literally a trillion dollar bill lying on the sidewalk. For some mysterious reasons US doesn't want to pick it up.
- curious_cat_163 4y ago
  It is likely because about 25% of the country would not like a more liberal immigration policy. There are merits to immigration but the politics around this has become toxic. I do not know how the US gets back on this horse without having bipartisan legislation. Such legislation looks pretty hard to be supported by a majority of the republic party’s primary voters. So, the question is what gives. Any one sided policy moves on this by the Democratic Party would likely face risk to be reversed.
  - KerrAvon 4y ago

w0de0 4y ago

> There are no experienced manufacturing workers… This isn't a matter of the price of labor. Nonetheless the shortage may be addressed by increasing the price. Witness the proliferation of software boot camps. I find myself confused this fundamental mechanism of free markets seems stuck for this market in this nation. Which hidden incentive(s) do I not comprehend? Is it simply that decades of business acumen and planning assume cheap labor, anchoring executives’ expectations well below what is now required?