5 ms·

How does the Russo-Ukrainian War end?

18 points by cmurf 4y ago

chrispeel 4y ago
A must read: Defeat in Ukraine may lead to conflict (armed or political) in Moscow. My impression from Kamil Galeev [1] is that if conflict happens in Moscow, other areas of Russia may break away. BTW, videos from a Yale course on Ukraine that Snyder is teaching now are being posted on Youtube [2]. Update: "It definitely seems that there is a power struggle going hot within the Russian govt/elite right now" [3] [1] https://twitter.com/kamilkazani https://twitter.com/kamilkazani [2] https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLh9mgdi4rNewfxO7LhBoz_1Mx1MaO6sw_ https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLh9mgdi4rNewfxO7LhBoz... [3] https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1577780691626037248 https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/157778069162603724...
- morpheos137 4y ago
  Kamil Galeev is not a credible source. What would be the basis for splintering the russian federation?
erichocean 4y ago
> Ukraine is winning on the battlefield Russia formally annexed ~15% of Ukraine today. How is that winning? I follow the conflict almost daily, and Ukraine appears to be in its "late WW2 Germany" phase where it throws everything it has at Russia all at once and then after…has nothing left to resist. It didn't work for the Germans in WW2, and I have no expectation it will work for Ukraine in 2022. Germany did so in the hopes that Russia would just give up. They didn't, Germany rapidly lost the war afterwards. I expect the same to happen to Ukraine. Ukraine needs NATO to fight if they want to defeat Russia.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- rad_gruchalski 4y ago
  > Russia formally annexed ~15% of Ukraine today. How is that winning? You can buy such annexation in every shop with annexations. It doesn’t matter what the Russian president says he wants. I’m sorry that this sounds like a meme but … nobody cares. I don’t know which WWII you remember. Germany invaded USSR with the idea of ending up in Moscow. They failed because they run out of time before winter hit them hard. Their supply lines were stretched so far that they could not supply their army. This tactic is now used against Russia. This is a different conflict altogether. Frankly, it’s the Russian behaviour that looks like Germany’s WWII invasion of USSR. Back then it was also USA who defeated Hitler with Russian hands: https://ru.usembassy.gov/world-war-ii-allies-u-s-lend-lease-to-the-soviet-union-1941-1945/ https://ru.usembassy.gov/world-war-ii-allies-u-s-lend-lease-.... Let me offer this: > … Soviet dictator Josef Stalin raised a toast to the Lend-Lease program at the November 1943 Tehran conference with British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt. > "I want to tell you what, from the Russian point of view, the president and the United States have done for victory in this war," Stalin said. "The most important things in this war are the machines.... The United States is a country of machines. Without the machines we received through Lend-Lease, we would have lost the war." > Nikita Khrushchev offered the same opinion. > "If the United States had not helped us, we would not have won the war," he wrote in his memoirs. "One-on-one against Hitler's Germany, we would not have withstood its onslaught and would have lost the war. No one talks about this officially, and Stalin never, I think, left any written traces of his opinion, but I can say that he expressed this view several times in conversations with me." Source: https://www.rferl.org/amp/did-us-lend-lease-aid-tip-the-balance-in-soviet-fight-against-nazi-germany/30599486.html https://www.rferl.org/amp/did-us-lend-lease-aid-tip-the-bala.... Sounds very familiar, no?
- warinukraine 4y ago
  > Russia formally annexed ~15% of Ukraine today. How is that winning? Another way to look at it is that Russia's original attempt was for 100% and Ukraine already got 85% back.
- kadoban 4y ago
  > Russia formally annexed ~15% of Ukraine today. How is that winning? I hereby declare that your kitchen is mine. Formally. Guess you're in trouble now, right?
  - coolhand2120 4y ago
    I suppose if you killed the people in the kitchen and stood in the sink I would be forced to consider what you’re saying even if I disagree.
    - kadoban 4y ago
      Yes, but that really just makes it clear that "formally" annexing something is meaningless, or at least entirely besides the point. It certainly doesn't mean Russia is winning.
- AnimalMuppet 4y ago
  I just formally annexed erichocean's account on HN. I own it now. I mean, sure, I don't control his login, but boy did I annex it. That is, it means absolutely nothing that Putin claims that he annexed chunks of Ukraine. He doesn't have control of a fair amount of what he "annexed", and he has control of less and less as the days go by. Back to the original point. "Ukraine is winning on the battlefield" is completely unrelated to "Russia formally annexed something". Battlefield actions absolutely do not care what Putin and the Russian legislature said. And the battlefield actions are going to decide the day, not Putin flapping his gums. There's a rude saying: "Try it on the dog." That is, your (Putin's) eloquence and rhetoric are completely failing to impress the humans, but maybe the dog will be impressed.
- mint2 4y ago
  > Russia “formally” annexed ~15% of Ukraine today Citing Russian moves made out of desperation after being steamrolled on multiple fronts as actually meaning they are about to win is some good Soviet radio. And “formally”? Huh? What? I formally ratify that I am the king of France. Unfortunately no one else seems to agreee. Name one country other than Russia or a pariah state like North Korea that “formally” acknowledges their new territory.
- cmurf 4y ago
  Annexing is illegal per the UN Charter, and the Geneva Convention. Not only is there no annexing, formal or informal, mentioning it is an intentional distraction away from the war of aggression Russia had to commit first to create the conditions for the fake annexation. Russia is also party to the Budapest Memorandum. They said they wouldn't do the very thing they are doing. It's clear Russia can't be trusted to make a peace agreement it'll actually keep. And as it has threatened global blackmail with nuclear weapons in order to remain unaccountable to the treaties (contracts) it's a party to, the world shouldn't trust it at all either. It's a threat to world peace.
- _kbh_ 4y ago
  > Russia formally annexed ~15% of Ukraine today. How is that winning? Russia has lost more territory in three weeks then they have gained in something like 3-4 months. Russias position is so poor they aren’t even declaring borders for the annexed regions cause Ukraine keeps capturing more every day. > I follow the conflict almost daily, and Ukraine appears to be in its "late WW2 Germany" phase where it throws everything it has at Russia all at once and then after…has nothing left to resist. I find this hard to believe considering that Russia announced mobilisation and has been throwing older and older soviet era equipment at Ukraine. They have also been the ones losing the most territory lately. Id say if anyones army is near collapse it’s Russias not Ukraines.
- rsynnott 4y ago
  > Russia formally annexed ~15% of Ukraine today. How is that winning? That was a particularly unconvincing propaganda move.
  - alexvoda 4y ago
    It's not just a propaganda move. It is meant to provide 2 things: - Legally allow Russia according to it's own laws to send conscripts to the claimed territories. This is necessary due to the extreme man power shortage. - Legally allow Russia to officially threaten with nuclear force. Officially doing so otherwise is agains official Russian military doctrine. All nuclear saber-rattling before was unofficial. Formally annexing was a legal necessity for Russia because otherwise Russia legally no longer had any way to escalate a "special military operation" they are loosing according to their own declared objecives. Even a supreme dictator is still bound by the laws of their own dictatorship even if they can change those laws at will. Respecting the process is part of retaining support and legitimacy.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
rapjr9 4y ago
I guess an alternate view is that Putin may use nukes as an instrument of terror. The Japanese surrendered in WWII because of the terror of a new large scale unknown weapon being demonstrated. Using nukes against Ukraine's larger cities that are far away from the front lines would not immediately endanger Russian troops. Putin also has not sent all of his forces to Ukraine, he's kept much of the best near him. It seems likely he still has way more troops at his command at home than anyone who might oppose him would. He seems to be taking extreme precautions against covid for himself (and also likely against assassination.) On the other hand, I like this political analysis. It occurs to me that Russia must now be experiencing a manpower shortage. They have sent something like 150,000? troops to Ukraine and a lot of them got killed or wounded. They are rounding up 300,000 more, taking them away from jobs and families. Estimates are that 500,000 men have fled the country (to avoid the draft, and the IT workers and others got out early). That has got to make a huge dent in workers in Russia. They are not going to be able to build things, to keep their economy fully functioning, when the most fit people they have are being pulled away into war. And more are being pulled into manufacturing weapons to support the war. It is a huge squandering of people power and resources, and it has got to be having devastating effects already. The pandemic has and is creating a shortage of workers in the US and must have done the same in Russia; imagine if the US also had a war going where we sent three quarters of a million troops to train and fight while also converting some industries to war production! There would be shortages of workers, services, and products. Inflation would increase. There have to be repercussions in Russia currently because of this, which would have an effect on the political calculations.
- hackandthink 4y ago
  Yesterday I heard from some IT guys from Saint Petersburg, now working in Spain. Smart and lucky guys! "It's up to you not to heed the call-up" "Maybe I wanna see the wheatfields Over Kiev and down to the sea All the young people down the ages They gladly marched off to die" The Clash - The Call Up https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ScaGjwkg2Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ScaGjwkg2Y
- ChuckNorris89 4y ago
  >Putin also has not sent all of his forces to Ukraine, he's kept much of the best near him. No he hasn't, he's used all his best already. Wagner is still active in Ukraine. Not using your best forces makes zero strategic sense. Why wouldn't they use their best and just prolong the war by loosing slowly instead of going for a quick victory? The quicker you can win a war, there better it is for you. The "Russia hasn't sent its best yet and is saving them for later" is just a pro-Kremlin meme to try to justify the sorry state and lack of performance of the Russian military.
hackandthink 4y ago
"Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants" There's no metaculus tournament for a nuclear strike. "In February, after the invasion of Ukraine, greater public attention was paid to the possibility of nuclear escalation. Given the gravity of the topic, we temporarily set this tournament private to review and reinforce our security infrastructure." https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament/ https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/nuclear-risk-forecastin... https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10745/russian-control-of-new-territory-2024-01-01/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10745/russian-control-of... https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10154/radiation-incident-in-ukraine-by-2024/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10154/radiation-incident...

18 points by cmurf 4y ago

A must read: Defeat in Ukraine may lead to conflict (armed or political) in Moscow. My impression from Kamil Galeev [1] is that if conflict happens in Moscow, other areas of Russia may break away. BTW, videos from a Yale course on Ukraine that Snyder is teaching now are being posted on Youtube [2]. Update: "It definitely seems that there is a power struggle going hot within the Russian govt/elite right now" [3] [1] https://twitter.com/kamilkazani https://twitter.com/kamilkazani [2] https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLh9mgdi4rNewfxO7LhBoz_1Mx1MaO6sw_ https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLh9mgdi4rNewfxO7LhBoz... [3] https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1577780691626037248 https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/157778069162603724...

morpheos137 4y ago
Kamil Galeev is not a credible source. What would be the basis for splintering the russian federation?

erichocean 4y ago

> Ukraine is winning on the battlefield Russia formally annexed ~15% of Ukraine today. How is that winning? I follow the conflict almost daily, and Ukraine appears to be in its "late WW2 Germany" phase where it throws everything it has at Russia all at once and then after…has nothing left to resist. It didn't work for the Germans in WW2, and I have no expectation it will work for Ukraine in 2022. Germany did so in the hopes that Russia would just give up. They didn't, Germany rapidly lost the war afterwards. I expect the same to happen to Ukraine. Ukraine needs NATO to fight if they want to defeat Russia.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
rad_gruchalski 4y ago
> Russia formally annexed ~15% of Ukraine today. How is that winning? You can buy such annexation in every shop with annexations. It doesn’t matter what the Russian president says he wants. I’m sorry that this sounds like a meme but … nobody cares. I don’t know which WWII you remember. Germany invaded USSR with the idea of ending up in Moscow. They failed because they run out of time before winter hit them hard. Their supply lines were stretched so far that they could not supply their army. This tactic is now used against Russia. This is a different conflict altogether. Frankly, it’s the Russian behaviour that looks like Germany’s WWII invasion of USSR. Back then it was also USA who defeated Hitler with Russian hands: https://ru.usembassy.gov/world-war-ii-allies-u-s-lend-lease-to-the-soviet-union-1941-1945/ https://ru.usembassy.gov/world-war-ii-allies-u-s-lend-lease-.... Let me offer this: > … Soviet dictator Josef Stalin raised a toast to the Lend-Lease program at the November 1943 Tehran conference with British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt. > "I want to tell you what, from the Russian point of view, the president and the United States have done for victory in this war," Stalin said. "The most important things in this war are the machines.... The United States is a country of machines. Without the machines we received through Lend-Lease, we would have lost the war." > Nikita Khrushchev offered the same opinion. > "If the United States had not helped us, we would not have won the war," he wrote in his memoirs. "One-on-one against Hitler's Germany, we would not have withstood its onslaught and would have lost the war. No one talks about this officially, and Stalin never, I think, left any written traces of his opinion, but I can say that he expressed this view several times in conversations with me." Source: https://www.rferl.org/amp/did-us-lend-lease-aid-tip-the-balance-in-soviet-fight-against-nazi-germany/30599486.html https://www.rferl.org/amp/did-us-lend-lease-aid-tip-the-bala.... Sounds very familiar, no?
warinukraine 4y ago
> Russia formally annexed ~15% of Ukraine today. How is that winning? Another way to look at it is that Russia's original attempt was for 100% and Ukraine already got 85% back.
kadoban 4y ago
> Russia formally annexed ~15% of Ukraine today. How is that winning? I hereby declare that your kitchen is mine. Formally. Guess you're in trouble now, right?
- coolhand2120 4y ago
  I suppose if you killed the people in the kitchen and stood in the sink I would be forced to consider what you’re saying even if I disagree.
  - kadoban 4y ago
    Yes, but that really just makes it clear that "formally" annexing something is meaningless, or at least entirely besides the point. It certainly doesn't mean Russia is winning.
AnimalMuppet 4y ago
I just formally annexed erichocean's account on HN. I own it now. I mean, sure, I don't control his login, but boy did I annex it. That is, it means absolutely nothing that Putin claims that he annexed chunks of Ukraine. He doesn't have control of a fair amount of what he "annexed", and he has control of less and less as the days go by. Back to the original point. "Ukraine is winning on the battlefield" is completely unrelated to "Russia formally annexed something". Battlefield actions absolutely do not care what Putin and the Russian legislature said. And the battlefield actions are going to decide the day, not Putin flapping his gums. There's a rude saying: "Try it on the dog." That is, your (Putin's) eloquence and rhetoric are completely failing to impress the humans, but maybe the dog will be impressed.
mint2 4y ago
> Russia “formally” annexed ~15% of Ukraine today Citing Russian moves made out of desperation after being steamrolled on multiple fronts as actually meaning they are about to win is some good Soviet radio. And “formally”? Huh? What? I formally ratify that I am the king of France. Unfortunately no one else seems to agreee. Name one country other than Russia or a pariah state like North Korea that “formally” acknowledges their new territory.
cmurf 4y ago
Annexing is illegal per the UN Charter, and the Geneva Convention. Not only is there no annexing, formal or informal, mentioning it is an intentional distraction away from the war of aggression Russia had to commit first to create the conditions for the fake annexation. Russia is also party to the Budapest Memorandum. They said they wouldn't do the very thing they are doing. It's clear Russia can't be trusted to make a peace agreement it'll actually keep. And as it has threatened global blackmail with nuclear weapons in order to remain unaccountable to the treaties (contracts) it's a party to, the world shouldn't trust it at all either. It's a threat to world peace.
_kbh_ 4y ago
> Russia formally annexed ~15% of Ukraine today. How is that winning? Russia has lost more territory in three weeks then they have gained in something like 3-4 months. Russias position is so poor they aren’t even declaring borders for the annexed regions cause Ukraine keeps capturing more every day. > I follow the conflict almost daily, and Ukraine appears to be in its "late WW2 Germany" phase where it throws everything it has at Russia all at once and then after…has nothing left to resist. I find this hard to believe considering that Russia announced mobilisation and has been throwing older and older soviet era equipment at Ukraine. They have also been the ones losing the most territory lately. Id say if anyones army is near collapse it’s Russias not Ukraines.
rsynnott 4y ago
> Russia formally annexed ~15% of Ukraine today. How is that winning? That was a particularly unconvincing propaganda move.
- alexvoda 4y ago
  It's not just a propaganda move. It is meant to provide 2 things: - Legally allow Russia according to it's own laws to send conscripts to the claimed territories. This is necessary due to the extreme man power shortage. - Legally allow Russia to officially threaten with nuclear force. Officially doing so otherwise is agains official Russian military doctrine. All nuclear saber-rattling before was unofficial. Formally annexing was a legal necessity for Russia because otherwise Russia legally no longer had any way to escalate a "special military operation" they are loosing according to their own declared objecives. Even a supreme dictator is still bound by the laws of their own dictatorship even if they can change those laws at will. Respecting the process is part of retaining support and legitimacy.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

rapjr9 4y ago

I guess an alternate view is that Putin may use nukes as an instrument of terror. The Japanese surrendered in WWII because of the terror of a new large scale unknown weapon being demonstrated. Using nukes against Ukraine's larger cities that are far away from the front lines would not immediately endanger Russian troops. Putin also has not sent all of his forces to Ukraine, he's kept much of the best near him. It seems likely he still has way more troops at his command at home than anyone who might oppose him would. He seems to be taking extreme precautions against covid for himself (and also likely against assassination.) On the other hand, I like this political analysis. It occurs to me that Russia must now be experiencing a manpower shortage. They have sent something like 150,000? troops to Ukraine and a lot of them got killed or wounded. They are rounding up 300,000 more, taking them away from jobs and families. Estimates are that 500,000 men have fled the country (to avoid the draft, and the IT workers and others got out early). That has got to make a huge dent in workers in Russia. They are not going to be able to build things, to keep their economy fully functioning, when the most fit people they have are being pulled away into war. And more are being pulled into manufacturing weapons to support the war. It is a huge squandering of people power and resources, and it has got to be having devastating effects already. The pandemic has and is creating a shortage of workers in the US and must have done the same in Russia; imagine if the US also had a war going where we sent three quarters of a million troops to train and fight while also converting some industries to war production! There would be shortages of workers, services, and products. Inflation would increase. There have to be repercussions in Russia currently because of this, which would have an effect on the political calculations.

hackandthink 4y ago
Yesterday I heard from some IT guys from Saint Petersburg, now working in Spain. Smart and lucky guys! "It's up to you not to heed the call-up" "Maybe I wanna see the wheatfields Over Kiev and down to the sea All the young people down the ages They gladly marched off to die" The Clash - The Call Up https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ScaGjwkg2Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ScaGjwkg2Y
ChuckNorris89 4y ago
>Putin also has not sent all of his forces to Ukraine, he's kept much of the best near him. No he hasn't, he's used all his best already. Wagner is still active in Ukraine. Not using your best forces makes zero strategic sense. Why wouldn't they use their best and just prolong the war by loosing slowly instead of going for a quick victory? The quicker you can win a war, there better it is for you. The "Russia hasn't sent its best yet and is saving them for later" is just a pro-Kremlin meme to try to justify the sorry state and lack of performance of the Russian military.

hackandthink 4y ago

"Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants" There's no metaculus tournament for a nuclear strike. "In February, after the invasion of Ukraine, greater public attention was paid to the possibility of nuclear escalation. Given the gravity of the topic, we temporarily set this tournament private to review and reinforce our security infrastructure." https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament/ https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/nuclear-risk-forecastin... https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10745/russian-control-of-new-territory-2024-01-01/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10745/russian-control-of... https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10154/radiation-incident-in-ukraine-by-2024/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10154/radiation-incident...