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There’s always south of the US border. Making Central America rich solves the immigration issue that has caused much political divisiveness. Of course many Am

There’s always south of the US border. Making Central America rich solves the immigration issue that has caused much political divisiveness. Of course many Americans will likely head south for a better deal: https://nypost.com/2022/07/28/mexico-city-residents-angered-by-influx-of-americans-speaking-english-gentrifying-area-report/amp/ https://nypost.com/2022/07/28/mexico-city-residents-angered-...

yrgulation 4y ago
That and ukraine once the war is over and simply automating more and bringing manufacturing back in the west and western allied countries.
- croes 4y ago
  So more expensive products and less jobs because of automation. Next economic crisis here we come.
  - Jalad 4y ago
    This seems like a luddite's argument. Automation tends to make things less expensive, and automation hasn't lead to economic crisis' in the past That's like saying computers are going to destroy a lot of jobs and cause an economic crisis, when in reality the opposite happened
    - croes 4y ago
      So why was it necessary to shift production to China? Automation tended to kill blue collar jobs, and if you don't have job even cheap is expensive. The next wave of automation will kill the higher value jobs too.
      - adventured 4y ago
        > So why was it necessary to shift production to China? It wasn't necessary. You're conflating necessary with desirable. The gap between the two is an increased profit margin, which is desirable for most corporations. Further, the CCP is becoming both dramatically more hostile to business in general and more dangerous as a foe to liberal, democratic nations (including Taiwan most prominently), while simultaneously the financial cost of operating in China has continued to climb by the year (which is a trend that is unlikely to significantly reverse). The China discount for offshoring isn't nearly what it was 15-20 years ago. The disaster that Russia is causing in Europe is a small hint of what China might cause in Asia in the coming decades. Russia's perceived capabilities weren't nearly what the West thought they were; China's military capabilities are more likely to exceed our expectations (in recent history China has more commonly followed the path of hide your strength and bide your time, as opposed to Russia's vacuous boasting), and it's backed up by a gigantic economy with manufacturing that Russia could only dream of.
        baybal2 4y ago
        [dead]
    - filmgirlcw 4y ago
      And a lot of automation in manufacturing doesn’t negate the need for human labor anyway. It’s still faster, more efficient, and better QA in many cases to have humans assemble certain things than to use machines. That won’t be the case forever, but the level that people think that the automation is going to be superior or even faster than the human element is often forgotten. I agree with you that automation doesn’t necessarily lead to a loss of jobs. It can create opportunities for whole new skills and job types. The struggle has been, especially in the US, that we haven’t then properly prepared or skilled people to do the new wave of jobs that can’t be automated. I always think of this article [1] from January 2017: > When the German engineering company Siemens Energy opened a gas turbine production plant in Charlotte, N.C., some 10,000 people showed up at a job fair for 800 positions. But fewer than 15 percent of the applicants were able to pass a reading, writing and math screening test geared toward a ninth-grade education. So out of 10,000 applicants, less than 1500 were even qualified to interview for a job, of which they only had 800 positions. That’s a problem but the solution isn’t to shun automation. [1]: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/30/education/edlife/factory-workers-college-degree-apprenticeships.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/30/education/edlife/factory-...
  - yrgulation 4y ago
    Thats the catch. Automating here in the west means we can maintain a lower price while creating jobs that would otherwise be lost altogether. I think returning manufacturing with these constraints in mind is a must.
    - croes 4y ago
      You can't just retrain workers from the jobs they replaced to new jobs.
      - yrgulation 4y ago
        Takes time and effort but it will be worth it in the end.
- witnesser2 4y ago
  I sort of work much on automation. Once upon a time in a Canada futon factory I worked as summer jobber. They had a automation packing machine that is like getting broken every two or three hours so the whole line of workers have to wait for it to get fixed, like most my later working scenarios. I do believe I have pretty solid engineering background. The biggest problem of automation is the mechanical parts are so easy to break down. The second problem is electronic chip mostly last two years, if they are located in a very complex place (inside an engine, tall building roof etc), repair and replacement cost is prohibitive. Untrained and transient labors hardly think of the two problems. while doers do, haters hate. It is complex.
vorpalhex 4y ago
Central America has some very hard to solve cartel issues.
- mrchucklepants 4y ago
  End the drug war and the problem will solve itself.
  - sigstoat 4y ago
    alas, the cartels are not bound by normal lobbying rules.
  - newaccount2021 4y ago
    True, but Mexico has been a major manufacturing hub for decades...its not like cartel violence has had any impact. Chances are your car, or lots of its components, were made in Mexico. Likewise for major appliances and textiles. XBoxes were manufactured there. I don't recall anyone pulling out because of cartel violence. This feels like people saying not to build a factory in the US because of Proud Boys, Antifa and MS13.
  - ch4s3 4y ago
    They don’t just sell drugs. They’re woven into whole economies from tourism to construction and beyond.
  - brianwawok 4y ago
    So how do you propose to do that?
    - spraveenitpro 4y ago
  - Jabrov 4y ago
    This statement makes no sense. Ending the drug war will not automatically end the existence of cartels.
croes 4y ago
Central America is more expensive than Asia.
liotier 4y ago
When a poor country takes off, emigration doesn't decrease: it increases, as people become more educated, better informed and can afford travel.
- brokencode 4y ago
  Source? Maybe legal emigration increases, but I doubt that illegal or asylum-seeking emigration would increase. People are fleeing from the terrible conditions in their home countries.
  - adventured 4y ago
    This premise was discussed a few times prominently on HN, and it appears to be accurate. There is an initial surge in people leaving as a country climbs economically; then it tapers off and reverses after you get rich enough to support what I would guess is a broad middle class quality of life. "New Research Confirms that Migration Rises as the Poorest Countries Get Richer" "As GDP per capita rises, so do emigration rates. This relationship slows after roughly US$5,000, and reverses after roughly $10,000" https://www.cgdev.org/article/new-research-confirms-migration-rises-poorest-countries-get-richer https://www.cgdev.org/article/new-research-confirms-migratio...
influx 4y ago
Funny no one suggests bringing it back to the USA. The margins are good enough on those products, and there is enough room for automation they could do it.
- falcolas 4y ago
  IMO, since Apple's public, it would dig too deeply into Apple's short-term profitability and growth, making it a no-go for its voting shareholders.
  - javajosh 4y ago
    Put it to a vote.
    - adra 4y ago
      Rich people hold most of the shares and they don't want people to know that they're just as self-centered as the rest of us (likely more which is partially what inflated their coffers to begin with, but that's just subjective assumptions).
  - ryeights 4y ago
    Time to put the ESG/political posturing of major financial firms to the test, I suppose?
    - vineyardmike 4y ago
      > Time to put the ESG/political posturing of major financial firms to the test, I suppose? Fastest way to end ESG posturing I suppose. Although ESG concerns don’t typically include “made in America”. It’s not clear to me how that’s be an ESG thing.
- geodel 4y ago
  Well margins are good because they build cheap and sell expensive. Isn't it?
- 4y ago

yrgulation 4y ago

That and ukraine once the war is over and simply automating more and bringing manufacturing back in the west and western allied countries.

croes 4y ago
So more expensive products and less jobs because of automation. Next economic crisis here we come.
- Jalad 4y ago
  This seems like a luddite's argument. Automation tends to make things less expensive, and automation hasn't lead to economic crisis' in the past That's like saying computers are going to destroy a lot of jobs and cause an economic crisis, when in reality the opposite happened
  - croes 4y ago
    So why was it necessary to shift production to China? Automation tended to kill blue collar jobs, and if you don't have job even cheap is expensive. The next wave of automation will kill the higher value jobs too.
    - adventured 4y ago
      > So why was it necessary to shift production to China? It wasn't necessary. You're conflating necessary with desirable. The gap between the two is an increased profit margin, which is desirable for most corporations. Further, the CCP is becoming both dramatically more hostile to business in general and more dangerous as a foe to liberal, democratic nations (including Taiwan most prominently), while simultaneously the financial cost of operating in China has continued to climb by the year (which is a trend that is unlikely to significantly reverse). The China discount for offshoring isn't nearly what it was 15-20 years ago. The disaster that Russia is causing in Europe is a small hint of what China might cause in Asia in the coming decades. Russia's perceived capabilities weren't nearly what the West thought they were; China's military capabilities are more likely to exceed our expectations (in recent history China has more commonly followed the path of hide your strength and bide your time, as opposed to Russia's vacuous boasting), and it's backed up by a gigantic economy with manufacturing that Russia could only dream of.
      - baybal2 4y ago
        [dead]
  - filmgirlcw 4y ago
    And a lot of automation in manufacturing doesn’t negate the need for human labor anyway. It’s still faster, more efficient, and better QA in many cases to have humans assemble certain things than to use machines. That won’t be the case forever, but the level that people think that the automation is going to be superior or even faster than the human element is often forgotten. I agree with you that automation doesn’t necessarily lead to a loss of jobs. It can create opportunities for whole new skills and job types. The struggle has been, especially in the US, that we haven’t then properly prepared or skilled people to do the new wave of jobs that can’t be automated. I always think of this article [1] from January 2017: > When the German engineering company Siemens Energy opened a gas turbine production plant in Charlotte, N.C., some 10,000 people showed up at a job fair for 800 positions. But fewer than 15 percent of the applicants were able to pass a reading, writing and math screening test geared toward a ninth-grade education. So out of 10,000 applicants, less than 1500 were even qualified to interview for a job, of which they only had 800 positions. That’s a problem but the solution isn’t to shun automation. [1]: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/30/education/edlife/factory-workers-college-degree-apprenticeships.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/30/education/edlife/factory-...
- yrgulation 4y ago
  Thats the catch. Automating here in the west means we can maintain a lower price while creating jobs that would otherwise be lost altogether. I think returning manufacturing with these constraints in mind is a must.
  - croes 4y ago
    You can't just retrain workers from the jobs they replaced to new jobs.
    - yrgulation 4y ago
      Takes time and effort but it will be worth it in the end.
witnesser2 4y ago
I sort of work much on automation. Once upon a time in a Canada futon factory I worked as summer jobber. They had a automation packing machine that is like getting broken every two or three hours so the whole line of workers have to wait for it to get fixed, like most my later working scenarios. I do believe I have pretty solid engineering background. The biggest problem of automation is the mechanical parts are so easy to break down. The second problem is electronic chip mostly last two years, if they are located in a very complex place (inside an engine, tall building roof etc), repair and replacement cost is prohibitive. Untrained and transient labors hardly think of the two problems. while doers do, haters hate. It is complex.

vorpalhex 4y ago

Central America has some very hard to solve cartel issues.

mrchucklepants 4y ago
End the drug war and the problem will solve itself.
- sigstoat 4y ago
  alas, the cartels are not bound by normal lobbying rules.
- newaccount2021 4y ago
  True, but Mexico has been a major manufacturing hub for decades...its not like cartel violence has had any impact. Chances are your car, or lots of its components, were made in Mexico. Likewise for major appliances and textiles. XBoxes were manufactured there. I don't recall anyone pulling out because of cartel violence. This feels like people saying not to build a factory in the US because of Proud Boys, Antifa and MS13.
- ch4s3 4y ago
  They don’t just sell drugs. They’re woven into whole economies from tourism to construction and beyond.
- brianwawok 4y ago
  So how do you propose to do that?
  - spraveenitpro 4y ago
- Jabrov 4y ago
  This statement makes no sense. Ending the drug war will not automatically end the existence of cartels.

croes 4y ago

Central America is more expensive than Asia.

liotier 4y ago

When a poor country takes off, emigration doesn't decrease: it increases, as people become more educated, better informed and can afford travel.

brokencode 4y ago
Source? Maybe legal emigration increases, but I doubt that illegal or asylum-seeking emigration would increase. People are fleeing from the terrible conditions in their home countries.
- adventured 4y ago
  This premise was discussed a few times prominently on HN, and it appears to be accurate. There is an initial surge in people leaving as a country climbs economically; then it tapers off and reverses after you get rich enough to support what I would guess is a broad middle class quality of life. "New Research Confirms that Migration Rises as the Poorest Countries Get Richer" "As GDP per capita rises, so do emigration rates. This relationship slows after roughly US$5,000, and reverses after roughly $10,000" https://www.cgdev.org/article/new-research-confirms-migration-rises-poorest-countries-get-richer https://www.cgdev.org/article/new-research-confirms-migratio...

influx 4y ago

Funny no one suggests bringing it back to the USA. The margins are good enough on those products, and there is enough room for automation they could do it.

falcolas 4y ago
IMO, since Apple's public, it would dig too deeply into Apple's short-term profitability and growth, making it a no-go for its voting shareholders.
- javajosh 4y ago
  Put it to a vote.
  - adra 4y ago
    Rich people hold most of the shares and they don't want people to know that they're just as self-centered as the rest of us (likely more which is partially what inflated their coffers to begin with, but that's just subjective assumptions).
- ryeights 4y ago
  Time to put the ESG/political posturing of major financial firms to the test, I suppose?
  - vineyardmike 4y ago
    > Time to put the ESG/political posturing of major financial firms to the test, I suppose? Fastest way to end ESG posturing I suppose. Although ESG concerns don’t typically include “made in America”. It’s not clear to me how that’s be an ESG thing.
geodel 4y ago
Well margins are good because they build cheap and sell expensive. Isn't it?
4y ago