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>But the impact of Russia’s abrupt cutoff of gas to Europe has doused the business with new risks. More like "the idiocy and lack of actions from EU leaders on
by ChuckNorris89 4y ago
>But the impact of Russia’s abrupt cutoff of gas to Europe has doused the business with new risks.
More like "the idiocy and lack of actions from EU leaders on the energy front after the 2014 invasion of Crimea has doused the businesses with new risks".
Energy mitigations off Russian gas should have started 8 years ago, not wait for Ukraine to get blown up.
- hdjjhhvvhga 4y agoIn a way, I understand Merkel: she must have seen Putin is a scoundrel but choose the policy of trying to domesticate him by keeping civilized business relations with him. Unfortunately, she lacked imagination. In XXI century, it is more inexcusable than ever.
- nly 4y agoThat's fine, but at the same time you need to build up your backup strategy. That's the problem in general in our modern economy. No reserves, no resilience, no backup plan
- radpanda 4y agoTwo countries that both have McDonalds would never go to war with each other though. I mean, except for all of the times they have. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lexus_and_the_Olive_Tree#Golden_Arches_theory https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lexus_and_the_Olive_Tree...
- durnygbur 4y agoLet me correct this brilliant socio-economic hypothesis: "two countries that both have American food and drink franchises they're all fat and physically incapable".
- ChuckNorris89 4y agoSo Putin invaded a foreign country and seized their land and you think Merkel's decision of keep doing business with Putin was somehow domesticating him? It's precisely that lack of action that proved to Putin that out leaders are spineless addicts to his cheap gas and he can play them like a fiddle. Also, let's not forget the lucrative positions Gerhard Schröder got at Russian energy companies in exchange for his "help" in getting Germany hooked on Russian gas.
- hdjjhhvvhga 4y agoThat's my point: not only it didn't work, but her lack of imagination left us all on the cold.
- fredestine 4y agosince when russia was an enemy of europe? historically they are the one who beat the nazis. if you refer to 2014 it is europe and us that also pushed russia to come into ukraine. everything would have been avoidable if we gave putin some warranty of not meddling with ukraine, putting corrupt people in a non elected government. and Im not saying that what is happening know is right. A russian invasion of ukraine is wrong. but that was definitely something USA actions in Ukraine expected long before 2014
- ChuckNorris89 4y ago>since when russia was an enemy of europe? Ask the Eastern European countries who've had to suffer 50 years of communist atrocities thanks to WW2 invasion of their countries by Russia and the USSR.
- fredestine 4y agoUSSR not russia. it collapsed. are you still upset about ottoman empire? nazi germany? the first world war aftermath should have taught us something.
- netsharc 4y ago
- Bork_Bork 4y agoMerkel is a "former" Stasi and what do think Scholz is? Deutschland is just yet another rusky oblast, end of story. Actually no, the EU is just the 4th Reich aka DDR aka rusky oblast therefore.
- hdjjhhvvhga 4y agoLet's not exaggerate. Germany needs energy, so Scholz strategy is to minimize the losses. He is also sending weapons to Ukraine, just not bragging about like other countries. The spirit of the "German fault" is still present in Germany and there is a strong disincentive for engaging in any kind of armed conflict. Nevertheless, I believe Germans as a whole realize how mistaken the overall policy of their government is and exercise some pressure to change that. Not shutting down nuclear reactors would be a good first step that would benefit the whole EU, not just Germany.
- durnygbur 4y ago> trying to domesticate him by keeping civilized business relations with him. This was the theory sold by German elites to the populace over obnoxiously overfunded German public media.
- benj111 4y agoYou could also blame the companies too. Any reasonably size company could have started doing things to insulate themselves. Things that were compatible with the environmental policies governments were already pushing.
- nradov 4y agoWhich things do you think they should have been doing?
- asoneth 4y agoCompanies that are highly exposed to price volatility like wholesale electricity and gas prices can include some kind of energy hedging in their risk management portfolio. It will cost them money in good years but it keeps them from going out of business in bad years. Companies that choose not to hedge make more profit in good years but must come begging to the government for bailouts or price controls in bad years. (i.e. shareholders pocket the profit while taxpayers cover the losses) Depending on the government's response to those kinds of requests, you end up with more of one sort of company or the other.
- benj111 4y agoPrice hedging. Doing things that would also be environmentally good (and encouraged by the EU), higher efficiency kilns, electric kilns. I'm not in the glass making business so I don't really know what the possibilities are, and the answers are different for different companies. Point is this situation was foreseeable, and slot of the things companies should be thinking about anyway.
- ChuckNorris89 4y agoCompanies are always looking towards the next quarter, they don't care where the energy comes from as long as it's cheap. It's the job of governments to pursue a sane and self sufficient energy policy.
- dmichulke 4y agoCompanies are not elected for "the good of the people", so they have no obligation. Oh wait, neither are the officials of the EU commission. Hmmm
- fredestine 4y agoand the american policies of putting weapons next to russia while they would totally invade mexico if mexico did have russian weapons.
- polotics 4y agoCitation needed. What weapons are you on about?
- arethuza 4y agoMexico does actually appear to have purchased weapons from Russia? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico%E2%80%93Russia_relations#Russian_Federation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico%E2%80%93Russia_relation...
- nradov 4y agoWhich weapons are you referring to? Mexico has purchased Russian weapons. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-russia-military-idUSKBN20105O https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-russia-military-id...
- fredestine 4y agoI meant american weapons operated from american army bases. just like in europe, turkey, middle east
- vinay427 4y agoAre you referring to the cooperative policies between the US and various European countries? I'm not aware of the US unilaterally moving weapons to the Russian border without an arrangement with the host country.
- ReptileMan 4y agoAlso why no one is questioning the EU reaction to the war. No one forced them to impose sanctions on Russia. They should have foreseen the gas situation and measured their response. EU tried to commit economic suicide with covid lockdowns and the Ukraine war. Seems they finally succeeded. Too bad I earn my salary in Euro. Because of Brussels I can buy almost as half as last year.
- kuratkull 4y agoI think you are in the minority with your stance. Most Europeans support the sanctions, and rightly so. Tough times require compromises. Expecting to live in stable, uneventful bliss forever is certainly desirable, but very naïve.
- ReptileMan 4y agoThen why is everyone whining?
- kuratkull 4y agoSomeone is always whining, usually whiners are louder than ... the non-whiners. And I didn't say everyone supports the sanctions. 10, 20 or 30% of people of a large group can whine so loud you'd think they are speaking for the whole world.
- blub 4y agoFirst of all, the sanction blowback hasn’t hit Europe with full force yet, of course one would otherwise support something that enjoys massive media and government support when the real costs aren’t obvious. Secondly, this needn’t have been tough times, if the EU had prepared. Or failing that, recognized that it can’t declare economic war on Russia and enjoy gas deliveries as usual. Thirdly, “stable, uneventful bliss” must be a poor attempt at humor. Did you miss the multi-year global pandemic that we still haven’t recovered from?
- wongarsu 4y agoAn ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Being unrelenting on Russia invading Ukraine is a strategic measure to make further war in Europe unlikely. I don't think there's a politician who didn't see that sanctioning Russia could lead to an unstable oil and gas situation, but on the whole it was deemed worth it (and in polls most people seem to agree).
- baxtr 4y agoHave no clue why this is being downvoted... I agree. You could have used nicer words though.
- hef19898 4y agoBecause it such a hindsight 20/20 comment providing an easy answer to a complex question, all by providing an easy scapegoat. So, IMHO, it is shallow, and bad for HN standards, comment.
- baxtr 4y agoDidn't people, even Trump, say before that it is a bad idea to have only a single provider for a very important resource?
- hef19898 4y agoAnd, mind you, we don't have an availability problem, we have a price problem. One that is caused by Russia's refusal to sell gas to Europe, one that hurts energy intensive industries at a time energy markets in general are disturbed to unrelated reasons, right after a pandemic that disrupted supply chains in the middle of global inflation. But yeah, Germany's refusal to buy gas from the US after Trump said they should is the root cause of all of that.
- croes 4y agoYou mean more expansive gas. So the same people crying now would cry why gas is so expensive and how it hurt the economy and made it less competitive.
- blub 4y agoExactly, the dependency on Russia was wanted by large parts of the EU political leadership in order to remain competitive economically. It’s interesting to see that most people consider Europe was tricked by Russia, when in fact this relationship was both wanted and good for both parties. Based on who the EU’s energy suppliers are, I can’t seriously consider that the EU cares about democracy or international law so much that it would perform economical self-sabotage. My theory was that the US gave the EU an ultimatum on Russia and it caved.
- throwaway894345 4y agoEurope thought rainbows, friendship, and deeper economic investment would be a more effective deterrent than military might. They doubled down on investing in Russian energy while criticizing the US and NATO for their doctrine of military deterrence.
- croes 4y agoThey thought peace is more stable when both sides are economically intertwined. And that is also the case. What options would there be against Russia without the possibility of economic sanctions? War! And not only in Ukraine
- qsort 4y ago> What options would there be against Russia without the possibility of economic sanctions? Not fueling their imperial fanfiction to begin with. The original mistake was offering them aid after the fall of the USSR without requiring steps towards liberal democracy in exchange.
- croes 4y agoThey took steps towards a liberal democracy. Remember Yeltsin? That led to the rise of oil and gas oligarchs meanwhile the ordinary people suffered. That's why they voted for a "strong" leader: Putin.
- hef19898 4y agoAh, of course. Because execting a Morgenthau plan on one of the two major nuclear powers, one that is currently desintegrating, ever was a good idea...
- throwaway894345 4y agoThere's a difference between trading with Russia and depending so heavily on Russia for the most critical resources. Notably, sanctions work best when ceasing trade harms the sanctioner more than the sanctioned, but the opposite is true with respect to energy--Russia can sell to the rest of the world (apart from those countries who are also sanctioning Russian energy, who can do so due to more energy-independent policies) while Europe can't easily source energy from new suppliers. > What options would there be against Russia without the possibility of economic sanctions? Continue to supply arms to Ukraine without an energy crisis?