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Agreed, but the era of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) deterrent principle has come to an end. Until very recently, everyone agreed that nuclear weapons cou
by andrewstuart 4y ago
Agreed, but the era of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) deterrent principle has come to an end.
Until very recently, everyone agreed that nuclear weapons could not be used because the outcome would be that everyone is destroyed.
Putin has ended that era because appears unconcerned by the prospect of MAD.
MAD only works if all sides agree that they do not want to be destroyed. Putin appears to not care.
So, the equation has changed and we all need to rethink the new equations. It may be as simple as - "there will be a nuclear war because a madman has the keys and is willing to press the button".
- IAmGraydon 4y agoPlease. Putin has not yet launched a nuclear attack, and I can assure you he would have already if he didn't care about MAD.
- javajosh 4y agoYou'll be soooo embarrassed if you're wrong!
- IAmGraydon 4y agoI won't exist and you likely won't either, so what's to lose? Either way, I did not make a prediction, so I'm not sure what you're even talking about.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- javajosh 4y agoThey say Putin (and TFG) is a master of 10-dimensional chess but what they don't tell you is that the game always ends with everyone dead.
- bitL 4y agoThat sounds like it should be in Rick and Morty.
- unyttigfjelltol 4y agoMAD is an insane game of chicken that we always knew could be tested by madmen, zealots and gamblers. The Russian leader certainly does care about the risks. However, the nature of the game rewards him for acting that he does not, and the other players for reciprocating. Up to a point, that is. MAD is not a good or stable game.
- pmayrgundter 4y agoMAD applies if all sides are actually at risk of being destroyed. A close historical precedent for the current situation is the US against Japan in which the nuclear power didn't have a reason to destroy its enemy (indeed, worked to rebuild it immediately after), and the enemy couldn't retaliate on par. So there was no escalation and instead a quick capitulation. If Russia uses tactical nukes against Ukraine, it matters how it uses them. Presumably it would like to use them as the US did, so it can take Ukraine without destroying it and put a faster end to the war than otherwise possible. The US can then concede, escalate the proxy war by giving Ukraine tactical nukes, or strike Russia directly. The latter still looks mostly like MAD to me. A nuclear proxy war limited to tactical nukes is.. unfortunately all too easy to imagine, with some precedent in the Turkish/Cuban missile crisis. That could then escalate until Russia dominates with its strategic nukes, but presumably Ukraine would capitulate before that. The lesson of high cost to Russia would also be there for future reference.
- pfisch 4y agoSeems more likely that every country would shut down trade with Russia, and Ukraine would keep fighting a conventional war with even better weapons than they have now.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- nyokodo 4y ago> Putin appears to not care. Putin wants everyone to think that, the reality is that this is almost certainly a ruse. I believe it was Nixon that wanted the Soviets to think he was mad and might press the button at the slightest provocation but it was a lie to get them to back off. There’s no evidence that Putin is suicidal. This is a nuclear steering contest which you can only win by not blinking because Putin doesn’t want Russia to be a smoldering ruin with his own bones a melted pile in the middle.
- bitL 4y agoPutin also said that West only respects power and that the US only talks to Russia because Russia is the only country that can destroy it in half an hour. He might be going to demonstrate his power next so that the West "finally understands".
- nyokodo 4y agoSo, because we understand Russia can destroy us in half an hour we talk to them but Putin’s going to use nukes to make us finally understand Russia can destroy us in half an hour? That makes no sense.
- bitL 4y agoHe might be demonstrating he's willing to use them and not talking empty words.
- nyokodo 4y agoIf he uses them then the other powers will need to severely hurt Russia directly otherwise they’d be encouraging Pakistan or India to exchange nukes, North Korea on the south or on Japan, or China on Taiwan or anyone. This would cause WWIII sooner or later so best to risk it sooner by punishing Russia to discourage the guarantee of it later. Basically, the use of nukes at all no matter what kind is a violation of MAD. If Putin wants to do that then we’d need to be back to thinking he’s suicidal, which we don’t. He wants us to give in so he can salami tactic his way into Poland, Moldova, and the Baltic states which would also lead to WWIII so we might as well keep helping the Ukrainians and steer down Putin back to the pre-2014 Russian border because if that doesn’t work then it’s WWIII anyway.
- roywiggins 4y ago> Putin appears to not care. Or maybe he's just better at "madman theory" than Nixon? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory
- newaccount2021 4y ago
- gfodor 4y agoMAD hasn’t been breached until a nuclear weapon is deployed in a way that would guarantee a nuclear response under existing treaties.
- naasking 4y ago> Putin has ended that era because appears unconcerned by the prospect of MAD. I think you should read up on the Cuban missile crisis.