5 ms·

I feel like people are trying to wish the economy into a recession / depression, but I really don't see it happening. I do see some belt tightening wrt SaaS exp

I feel like people are trying to wish the economy into a recession / depression, but I really don't see it happening. I do see some belt tightening wrt SaaS expenditures. There's still a massive demand for labor. While the housing market has fallen, the actual cost of buying a house is still rising. Rate increases have well outpaced the list price reductions. So I think all this talk of a recession is just a bunch of reporters trying to jeer people into that state of mind for clicks.

kiernanmcgowan 4y ago
It feels like _something_ is happening, but it's not quite the recession that people are fearing. The US is somehow at the lowest unemployment rates we've seen and people are saying it's all going to collapse which just feels off. If the US hits 5% unemployment that simultaneously worse off than where we are but still a solid economic position. My pet theory is that everyone is just tired, so damned tired, and seeps into everything.
- pc86 4y ago
  Tired of (or from) what? With the major exception of the pandemic/remote work, the world is not markedly different than it was in 2013 or 2003. What makes it seems like 2023 is so different?
  - warner25 4y ago
    I read this kind of sentiment often and I wonder the same thing. I mean, I'm much more tired (physically and emotionally stressed) than I was in 2013 or 2003, but I'm also 10-20 years older with 10-20 years of accumulated baggage and responsibilities. I think some people might forget that fact.
  - realce 4y ago
    > the world is not markedly different than it was in 2013 or 2003. What makes it seems like 2023 is so different? Nothing seems to be very different for the last 20 years, which also means things aren't getting any better. That's tiring.
    - pc86 4y ago
      What "things" are you talking about, and most importantly, how is that "tiring" beyond just getting older? Any time I hear someone talk about how everyone is tired now and they weren't before it smacks of "I'm the main character" syndrome in that they're going through the same thing every generation on Earth has gone through for millennia - getting older - but suddenly it's a crisis because it's them going through it.
  - yupper32 4y ago
    Why exclude the pandemic/remote work? But to exclude it for a bit, my personal, super anecdotal and biased view is that those years were very different. 2003 had low hope for a better future, but there was a lot of action in the fallout of 9/11. It felt like we were at least trying, even if it ended up being a horrible try. 2013 I felt hope for a better future, but there wasn't a lot of action to make that a reality. 2023 and there's zero hope for a better future and we're doing nothing about it. We need at least hope or action.
    - dntrkv 4y ago
      It depends on what you think is important, but there is a lot more happening today in addressing our problems than back in 2013 or 2003, imo. I think many can agree that climate change is one of the higher priority efforts, and in the last few years, we've seen some major progress. In the US, renewables make up the vast majority of new generating capacity, by far and solar deployments are growing at a rapid pace. We were still deploying significant amounts of coal plants 10 years ago, nowadays, it's basically zero. [https://www.seia.org/solar-industry-research-data https://www.seia.org/solar-industry-research-data]. China has doubled its solar deployments in the last year. Wind deployments are accelerating [https://www.iea.org/reports/wind-electricity https://www.iea.org/reports/wind-electricity] EVs are gaining marketshare at a fast pace, many countries/states are banning ICE sales in the near future. [https://www.virta.global/en/global-electric-vehicle-market https://www.virta.global/en/global-electric-vehicle-market] Cost of lithium batteries has fallen by 89% since 2010 [https://cleanpower.org/facts/clean-energy-storage/ https://cleanpower.org/facts/clean-energy-storage/] US passed the IRA which has the potential to really accelerate these changes. Still not enough of course, but we are seeing significant progress compared to 2013.
  - pcorsaro 4y ago
    I run a small business that sells supplies to restaurants and other small businesses. Everyone I deal with is busier than they've ever been with less help than they've ever had. Hardly anyone has been able to take a vacation for 3 years now. There's a multitude of things going on that are drastically different than 10 or 20 years ago. There's a schism being created in this world with the work from home crowd being one side, and the warehouse/foodservice crowd on the other side. The warehouse side has a huge demand, in part because of the pandemic, and also in part because of the work from home crowd not leaving their house as much. None of the restaurants can afford to pay what the warehouse jobs are paying. The number of people willing to work in the food industry is lower than I've ever seen it.
    - defterGoose 4y ago
      >There's a schism being created in this world with the work from home crowd being one side, and the warehouse/foodservice crowd on the other side. Totally agree, and it's good to know that anyone besides myself sees it. For me personally, I'm educated and know I have the skills to be on that first side of the divide, but it makes me feel very nervous/sad, because I know a lot of the stuff going on at the lower-wage end of the scale is unsustainable, and it makes me very worried for the future of our society. In the sense of how modern people want to live their lives, people in the service industries are extremely undervalued, and everyone deserves a fair wage for fair work and the ability to live in a dignified way. I complain about everyone expecting a tip on their POS terminals and prices constantly rising, but in the spirit of my above point, they probably deserve it. We need a return to sanity regarding the returns of being a business owner.
      - pcorsaro 4y ago
        > I complain about everyone expecting a tip on their POS terminals and prices constantly rising, but in the spirit of my above point, they probably deserve it. This is also a huge complaint of mine in specific situations. If I go to an NBA game or concert, buy a beer for $12, and the POS has a tip thing, I want to scream. I want to scream at the vending group to just pay the people more money. The profit margin on the beer is insane, give your workers some of the money rather than try to pass the buck on to the consumer you’re already gouging.
- giantrobot 4y ago
  Something that is very hard to measure WRT unemployment is the number of people that dropped out of the workforce during COVID. There's also poor reporting on underemployment. I'm not saying that to say the US is just going to drop into a recession or something, it's just unemployment numbers have always been very loose figures. We could have low unemployment but high underemployment and end up with a similar softening of consumer demand just because people don't have the discretionary income to buy stuff. Underemployment combined with inflation is extra painful.
  - lotsofpulp 4y ago
    > Something that is very hard to measure WRT unemployment is the number of people that dropped out of the workforce during COVID. The labor force participate rate would (theoretically) capture this: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab...
- llanowarelves 4y ago
  Remember that people that are not employed are only considered "unemployed" in that metric if they have been "looking for a job". If you stop looking for 4 weeks, you're not employed but not "unemployed" (in their numbers).
  - mywittyname 4y ago
    Depends on the which level of unemployment you cite. But the thing is, it doesn't really matter which level of unemployment you look at, since they all have the same trend, just at a different scale. The BLS collect and categorizes this data in every conceivable way. You can see, for example, that the duration of unemployment is actually quite low compared to previous recessions: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/duration-of-unemployment.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/duration-of-...
- hanniabu 4y ago
  > The US is somehow at the lowest unemployment rates we've seen and people are saying it's all going to collapse which just feels off. When this point of unemployment is hit, it always acts as an inflection point before the trend reverses and unemployment goes up.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
csmpltn 4y ago
> "I feel like people are trying to wish the economy into a recession / depression, but I really don't see it happening." Depending on your personal financial circumstances, it may be many months before you end up "seeing this with your own eyes". Inflation won't eat up your savings over night - but over a period of 5-10 years, combined with increasing energy prices, interest rates, costs of living and salary stagnation? A lot can change. It's a boiling frog situation...
LouisSayers 4y ago
I get the same feeling - the only thing to me that makes sense is that people with money are afraid that a full scale war might break out as a result of Russia and perhaps China or North Korea etc. Otherwise when I look around it seems like the restaurants are busy, people are taking holidays (even those who wouldn't usually), and people as a whole seem better off than they've been in a while... It kind of seems like the view of the economy is being manipulated, because here on the street everything looks hunky dory.
- mywittyname 4y ago
  > and people as a whole seem better off than they've been in a while... Some people. The lower classes are definitely struggling a lot more recently, especially given the rental market going bonkers.
dan_quixote 4y ago
This is how it happens though. Some people are easy to convince with data alone, some are not, and others are simply in denial. Watch financial markets before a crash - lots of volatility while these groups are placing bets on the direction of the economy. Eventually we cross a threshold where the market crashes and all those that were unconvinced change their tune. It doesn't happen slowly.
myth_drannon 4y ago
But officials are explicitly saying that the unemployment is too low and raising interest rates is one way to bring it up. The economy is overheated and needs to cool down. It's not wishful thinking or headlines grabbing topic, it is a stated fact that the economy is artificially induced into recession.
keewee7 4y ago
I'm European and I feel there is a certain segment of American libertarians who want a global/European systemic collapse because they feel it validates their views. American libertarians are overrepresented on HN.
JamesBarney 4y ago
House prices are pretty sticky, it takes a long time and a lot of downward pressure for housing prices to fall. No one wants to take a loss on their house.
itsoktocry 4y ago
>So I think all this talk of a recession is just a bunch of reporters trying to jeer people into that state of mind for clicks. Economies don't roll-over in a month, sometimes it takes years. But this cycle has peaked. Inflation and rising interest rates will cause all kinds of issues, including the highest mortgage rates in 30 years.

kiernanmcgowan 4y ago

It feels like _something_ is happening, but it's not quite the recession that people are fearing. The US is somehow at the lowest unemployment rates we've seen and people are saying it's all going to collapse which just feels off. If the US hits 5% unemployment that simultaneously worse off than where we are but still a solid economic position. My pet theory is that everyone is just tired, so damned tired, and seeps into everything.

pc86 4y ago
Tired of (or from) what? With the major exception of the pandemic/remote work, the world is not markedly different than it was in 2013 or 2003. What makes it seems like 2023 is so different?
- warner25 4y ago
  I read this kind of sentiment often and I wonder the same thing. I mean, I'm much more tired (physically and emotionally stressed) than I was in 2013 or 2003, but I'm also 10-20 years older with 10-20 years of accumulated baggage and responsibilities. I think some people might forget that fact.
- realce 4y ago
  > the world is not markedly different than it was in 2013 or 2003. What makes it seems like 2023 is so different? Nothing seems to be very different for the last 20 years, which also means things aren't getting any better. That's tiring.
  - pc86 4y ago
    What "things" are you talking about, and most importantly, how is that "tiring" beyond just getting older? Any time I hear someone talk about how everyone is tired now and they weren't before it smacks of "I'm the main character" syndrome in that they're going through the same thing every generation on Earth has gone through for millennia - getting older - but suddenly it's a crisis because it's them going through it.
- yupper32 4y ago
  Why exclude the pandemic/remote work? But to exclude it for a bit, my personal, super anecdotal and biased view is that those years were very different. 2003 had low hope for a better future, but there was a lot of action in the fallout of 9/11. It felt like we were at least trying, even if it ended up being a horrible try. 2013 I felt hope for a better future, but there wasn't a lot of action to make that a reality. 2023 and there's zero hope for a better future and we're doing nothing about it. We need at least hope or action.
  - dntrkv 4y ago
    It depends on what you think is important, but there is a lot more happening today in addressing our problems than back in 2013 or 2003, imo. I think many can agree that climate change is one of the higher priority efforts, and in the last few years, we've seen some major progress. In the US, renewables make up the vast majority of new generating capacity, by far and solar deployments are growing at a rapid pace. We were still deploying significant amounts of coal plants 10 years ago, nowadays, it's basically zero. [https://www.seia.org/solar-industry-research-data https://www.seia.org/solar-industry-research-data]. China has doubled its solar deployments in the last year. Wind deployments are accelerating [https://www.iea.org/reports/wind-electricity https://www.iea.org/reports/wind-electricity] EVs are gaining marketshare at a fast pace, many countries/states are banning ICE sales in the near future. [https://www.virta.global/en/global-electric-vehicle-market https://www.virta.global/en/global-electric-vehicle-market] Cost of lithium batteries has fallen by 89% since 2010 [https://cleanpower.org/facts/clean-energy-storage/ https://cleanpower.org/facts/clean-energy-storage/] US passed the IRA which has the potential to really accelerate these changes. Still not enough of course, but we are seeing significant progress compared to 2013.
- pcorsaro 4y ago
  I run a small business that sells supplies to restaurants and other small businesses. Everyone I deal with is busier than they've ever been with less help than they've ever had. Hardly anyone has been able to take a vacation for 3 years now. There's a multitude of things going on that are drastically different than 10 or 20 years ago. There's a schism being created in this world with the work from home crowd being one side, and the warehouse/foodservice crowd on the other side. The warehouse side has a huge demand, in part because of the pandemic, and also in part because of the work from home crowd not leaving their house as much. None of the restaurants can afford to pay what the warehouse jobs are paying. The number of people willing to work in the food industry is lower than I've ever seen it.
  - defterGoose 4y ago
    >There's a schism being created in this world with the work from home crowd being one side, and the warehouse/foodservice crowd on the other side. Totally agree, and it's good to know that anyone besides myself sees it. For me personally, I'm educated and know I have the skills to be on that first side of the divide, but it makes me feel very nervous/sad, because I know a lot of the stuff going on at the lower-wage end of the scale is unsustainable, and it makes me very worried for the future of our society. In the sense of how modern people want to live their lives, people in the service industries are extremely undervalued, and everyone deserves a fair wage for fair work and the ability to live in a dignified way. I complain about everyone expecting a tip on their POS terminals and prices constantly rising, but in the spirit of my above point, they probably deserve it. We need a return to sanity regarding the returns of being a business owner.
    - pcorsaro 4y ago
      > I complain about everyone expecting a tip on their POS terminals and prices constantly rising, but in the spirit of my above point, they probably deserve it. This is also a huge complaint of mine in specific situations. If I go to an NBA game or concert, buy a beer for $12, and the POS has a tip thing, I want to scream. I want to scream at the vending group to just pay the people more money. The profit margin on the beer is insane, give your workers some of the money rather than try to pass the buck on to the consumer you’re already gouging.
giantrobot 4y ago
Something that is very hard to measure WRT unemployment is the number of people that dropped out of the workforce during COVID. There's also poor reporting on underemployment. I'm not saying that to say the US is just going to drop into a recession or something, it's just unemployment numbers have always been very loose figures. We could have low unemployment but high underemployment and end up with a similar softening of consumer demand just because people don't have the discretionary income to buy stuff. Underemployment combined with inflation is extra painful.
- lotsofpulp 4y ago
  > Something that is very hard to measure WRT unemployment is the number of people that dropped out of the workforce during COVID. The labor force participate rate would (theoretically) capture this: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab...
llanowarelves 4y ago
Remember that people that are not employed are only considered "unemployed" in that metric if they have been "looking for a job". If you stop looking for 4 weeks, you're not employed but not "unemployed" (in their numbers).
- mywittyname 4y ago
  Depends on the which level of unemployment you cite. But the thing is, it doesn't really matter which level of unemployment you look at, since they all have the same trend, just at a different scale. The BLS collect and categorizes this data in every conceivable way. You can see, for example, that the duration of unemployment is actually quite low compared to previous recessions: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/duration-of-unemployment.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/duration-of-...
hanniabu 4y ago
> The US is somehow at the lowest unemployment rates we've seen and people are saying it's all going to collapse which just feels off. When this point of unemployment is hit, it always acts as an inflection point before the trend reverses and unemployment goes up.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

csmpltn 4y ago

> "I feel like people are trying to wish the economy into a recession / depression, but I really don't see it happening." Depending on your personal financial circumstances, it may be many months before you end up "seeing this with your own eyes". Inflation won't eat up your savings over night - but over a period of 5-10 years, combined with increasing energy prices, interest rates, costs of living and salary stagnation? A lot can change. It's a boiling frog situation...

LouisSayers 4y ago

I get the same feeling - the only thing to me that makes sense is that people with money are afraid that a full scale war might break out as a result of Russia and perhaps China or North Korea etc. Otherwise when I look around it seems like the restaurants are busy, people are taking holidays (even those who wouldn't usually), and people as a whole seem better off than they've been in a while... It kind of seems like the view of the economy is being manipulated, because here on the street everything looks hunky dory.

mywittyname 4y ago
> and people as a whole seem better off than they've been in a while... Some people. The lower classes are definitely struggling a lot more recently, especially given the rental market going bonkers.

dan_quixote 4y ago

This is how it happens though. Some people are easy to convince with data alone, some are not, and others are simply in denial. Watch financial markets before a crash - lots of volatility while these groups are placing bets on the direction of the economy. Eventually we cross a threshold where the market crashes and all those that were unconvinced change their tune. It doesn't happen slowly.

myth_drannon 4y ago

But officials are explicitly saying that the unemployment is too low and raising interest rates is one way to bring it up. The economy is overheated and needs to cool down. It's not wishful thinking or headlines grabbing topic, it is a stated fact that the economy is artificially induced into recession.

keewee7 4y ago

I'm European and I feel there is a certain segment of American libertarians who want a global/European systemic collapse because they feel it validates their views. American libertarians are overrepresented on HN.

JamesBarney 4y ago

House prices are pretty sticky, it takes a long time and a lot of downward pressure for housing prices to fall. No one wants to take a loss on their house.

itsoktocry 4y ago

>So I think all this talk of a recession is just a bunch of reporters trying to jeer people into that state of mind for clicks. Economies don't roll-over in a month, sometimes it takes years. But this cycle has peaked. Inflation and rising interest rates will cause all kinds of issues, including the highest mortgage rates in 30 years.