4 ms·

Taiwan? Looking at the board, seeing what's happening in the west, I would keep an eye on the level of loss the Russians are willing to endure before probable t

by ararar 4y ago

Taiwan? Looking at the board, seeing what's happening in the west, I would keep an eye on the level of loss the Russians are willing to endure before probable tactical nuke usage. Just before that point, I would look to China's northern border to see if they are about to roll north to undo the unequal Treaty of Aigun.

CogitoCogito 4y ago
- throwayyy479087 4y ago
  This is a misreading of history. China was truly and properly fucked for centuries by Western powers and the Japanese. A lot of what we read as aggression stems from a deep desire to avoid the humiliation of the Opium Wars again. The West has forgotten about them but China, with the reminder of Hong Kong right there, certainly has not.
  - CogitoCogito 4y ago
    China is free to demonstrate it's support of equality and fair treatment of other countries by not threatening or attacking Taiwan. Or China can continue to engage in propaganda in an attempt to make itself feel better about its military belligerence.
  - Gravityloss 4y ago
    Hmm, what does China fear Taiwan is about to do to it?
- sacrosancty 4y ago
  Of course it's just nonsense political statements. They don't have to make sense. But Taiwan is funny because they make the same claim! In a way, they're right, Taiwan (Republic of China) used to control a lot of mainland China too but was violently shut out by the communists.
  - s1artibartfast 4y ago
    Historically speaking, the local Taiwanese population never exerted much control in mainland China. The mainland leadership evacuated to Taiwan during the conflict with the communists
    - sacrosancty 4y ago
      Since they're not the actual same people still alive, it depends if you consider "the same people" to be those linked by ancestry or by continuity of some social organization structure they adhere to.
- dirtyid 4y ago
  That would be valid comparison if there was a treaty between PRC/ROC to end the civil war... but there isn't. Hence PRC reserves right to use disproportionate force to finish an legally ongoing / unresolved domestic conflict. It's almost like they're completely different legal circumstances. Or you know, if TW considers currents dynamic "unequal" they could do what KMT/CCP did to unequal treaties, diplomatically force opponent to surrender/terminate/renegotiate, or prepare to fight a war to repeal them. It's almost like there's well defined solutions for how to end unequal treaties that one doesn't like.
  - CogitoCogito 4y ago
    - dirtyid 4y ago
      - dang 4y ago
        If you continue to use HN primarily for nationalistic argument, we will ban you. I've asked you many times, and looking at your recent history it looks like you haven't changed a thing. This is not cool. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
    - dang 4y ago
      Attacking other users like that will get you banned here. Please follow the rules regardless of how wrong someone is or you feel they are. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
nradov 4y ago
From Russia's perspective, tactical nukes aren't some kind of magic solution to reverse their battlefield losses. In land warfare, such weapons are most useful to knock out military bases and troop concentrations. But at this point the Ukrainian military is well dispersed and much of it is currently engaged in close combat with Russian forces. So a small nuke wouldn't kill many Ukrainian soldiers and there would be a high risk of fratricide. Most of those Russian military units are probably also not properly trained or equipped to fight on a nuclear battlefield; I suspect much of their CBRN gear has been stuck in storage since 1991. Russia could force Ukraine to surrender by nuking population centers and civilian infrastructure. But that would come with such a high political and economic cost that I hope Putin will be rational enough not to go so far.
ararar 4y ago
I meant that China would take back those parts of Manchuria and nearby lands it lost to Russia in 1860 the second Russia commits to total war on its western front. Taiwan is too difficult: crossing the ocean, powerful allies, entrenched defences. But Vladivostok and the Amur river region is defended by an overhyped, depleted, substandard, number-2-only-inside-Ukraine, army. It's just as good an offering to the people as Taiwan would be and a good legacy for Xi.

by ararar 4y ago

CogitoCogito 4y ago

throwayyy479087 4y ago
This is a misreading of history. China was truly and properly fucked for centuries by Western powers and the Japanese. A lot of what we read as aggression stems from a deep desire to avoid the humiliation of the Opium Wars again. The West has forgotten about them but China, with the reminder of Hong Kong right there, certainly has not.
- CogitoCogito 4y ago
  China is free to demonstrate it's support of equality and fair treatment of other countries by not threatening or attacking Taiwan. Or China can continue to engage in propaganda in an attempt to make itself feel better about its military belligerence.
- Gravityloss 4y ago
  Hmm, what does China fear Taiwan is about to do to it?
sacrosancty 4y ago
Of course it's just nonsense political statements. They don't have to make sense. But Taiwan is funny because they make the same claim! In a way, they're right, Taiwan (Republic of China) used to control a lot of mainland China too but was violently shut out by the communists.
- s1artibartfast 4y ago
  Historically speaking, the local Taiwanese population never exerted much control in mainland China. The mainland leadership evacuated to Taiwan during the conflict with the communists
  - sacrosancty 4y ago
    Since they're not the actual same people still alive, it depends if you consider "the same people" to be those linked by ancestry or by continuity of some social organization structure they adhere to.
dirtyid 4y ago
That would be valid comparison if there was a treaty between PRC/ROC to end the civil war... but there isn't. Hence PRC reserves right to use disproportionate force to finish an legally ongoing / unresolved domestic conflict. It's almost like they're completely different legal circumstances. Or you know, if TW considers currents dynamic "unequal" they could do what KMT/CCP did to unequal treaties, diplomatically force opponent to surrender/terminate/renegotiate, or prepare to fight a war to repeal them. It's almost like there's well defined solutions for how to end unequal treaties that one doesn't like.
- CogitoCogito 4y ago
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    - dang 4y ago
      If you continue to use HN primarily for nationalistic argument, we will ban you. I've asked you many times, and looking at your recent history it looks like you haven't changed a thing. This is not cool. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - dang 4y ago
    Attacking other users like that will get you banned here. Please follow the rules regardless of how wrong someone is or you feel they are. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

nradov 4y ago

From Russia's perspective, tactical nukes aren't some kind of magic solution to reverse their battlefield losses. In land warfare, such weapons are most useful to knock out military bases and troop concentrations. But at this point the Ukrainian military is well dispersed and much of it is currently engaged in close combat with Russian forces. So a small nuke wouldn't kill many Ukrainian soldiers and there would be a high risk of fratricide. Most of those Russian military units are probably also not properly trained or equipped to fight on a nuclear battlefield; I suspect much of their CBRN gear has been stuck in storage since 1991. Russia could force Ukraine to surrender by nuking population centers and civilian infrastructure. But that would come with such a high political and economic cost that I hope Putin will be rational enough not to go so far.

ararar 4y ago

I meant that China would take back those parts of Manchuria and nearby lands it lost to Russia in 1860 the second Russia commits to total war on its western front. Taiwan is too difficult: crossing the ocean, powerful allies, entrenched defences. But Vladivostok and the Amur river region is defended by an overhyped, depleted, substandard, number-2-only-inside-Ukraine, army. It's just as good an offering to the people as Taiwan would be and a good legacy for Xi.