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Besides the canary-in-a-coal-mine signs of a PLA buildup and other mobilization steps, another issue brought up in the essay was the prospect of a U.S. port blo

Besides the canary-in-a-coal-mine signs of a PLA buildup and other mobilization steps, another issue brought up in the essay was the prospect of a U.S. port blockade. The author did not explain how this would work. Would ships be required, or could it be done with aircraft, land-based missiles, and warnings to potential trade partners and shipping firms?

aerostable_slug 4y ago
Don't forget sea mines. We have the ability to deliver them covertly by submarine (some can swim to find their assigned resting place), or overtly by aircraft, a whole bunch at once. Some are able to be selectively armed or disarmed. Offensive mining will, in my estimation, play a major role in any South China Sea conflict to come.
dirtyid 4y ago
Article talks about PRC quarantining/blockade TW, or US blockading PRC (likely at Malacca chokepoint). The former is just PRC spamming her coast guard assets to setup a maritime cordon supported by navy. The latter involves retasking a lot of navy and coast ships but studies I've come across suggest the amount of traffic to/from PRC makes this unsustainable.
nradov 4y ago
To some extent the actual weapons system used would be irrelevant. If the US declared a blockade, all commercial shipping insurers would immediately withdraw coverage in that zone. Conflict zones are (mostly) uninsurable, and large merchant ships don't sail without insurance. And the US would immediately back that up with wide-ranging economic sanctions prohibiting any entities involved in trade with China from being able to use any part of the US financial system. Thus almost no neutral flagged ships would be able to call on Chinese ports. The US Air Force has put a renewed emphasis on air-delivered naval mines. During WW2 those weapons played a major role in starving Japan and they're just as effective today.

aerostable_slug 4y ago

Don't forget sea mines. We have the ability to deliver them covertly by submarine (some can swim to find their assigned resting place), or overtly by aircraft, a whole bunch at once. Some are able to be selectively armed or disarmed. Offensive mining will, in my estimation, play a major role in any South China Sea conflict to come.

dirtyid 4y ago

Article talks about PRC quarantining/blockade TW, or US blockading PRC (likely at Malacca chokepoint). The former is just PRC spamming her coast guard assets to setup a maritime cordon supported by navy. The latter involves retasking a lot of navy and coast ships but studies I've come across suggest the amount of traffic to/from PRC makes this unsustainable.

nradov 4y ago

To some extent the actual weapons system used would be irrelevant. If the US declared a blockade, all commercial shipping insurers would immediately withdraw coverage in that zone. Conflict zones are (mostly) uninsurable, and large merchant ships don't sail without insurance. And the US would immediately back that up with wide-ranging economic sanctions prohibiting any entities involved in trade with China from being able to use any part of the US financial system. Thus almost no neutral flagged ships would be able to call on Chinese ports. The US Air Force has put a renewed emphasis on air-delivered naval mines. During WW2 those weapons played a major role in starving Japan and they're just as effective today.