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Michaux takes a long time to get to the point, even at double speed. None of what I have heard in the first 20 minutes is new to anyone who followed the Peak Oi

Michaux takes a long time to get to the point, even at double speed. None of what I have heard in the first 20 minutes is new to anyone who followed the Peak Oil debate back in the 2005-2009 period. His estimate of required battery capacity for short-distance and light vehicles, around 62 TWh, matches a quick back-of-the envelope calculation, so that's good. The description for the video is unpromising, blurring the distinction between reserves (known, characterized, owned) and resources (varying degrees of knowness, characterization, unowned), and implying we face a binary situation: plenty of resources, and then nothing. The world is not like that. There is always a spectrum of possibilities. We have an extremely abundant adequate substitute for copper for electrical uses: aluminum. The bulk of electrical distribution systems is steel-cored aluminum wire. Is copper better? Yes. Is it so much better than aluminum that the latter is unusable? No. Aluminum's lower electrical and thermal conductivities will require design changes (higher voltage, lower current), and overall efficiency won't be as good as with copper. Very sad. But aluminum is still perfectly usable for EV motors. And there are ways to eke out the copper we have, such as copper-clad aluminum wire (CCAW), which is already extensively used in loudspeakers. Some high currents flow in subwoofer voice coils. As for poor people being left behind, resource prices are not the cause. Very few mineral resources are used in providing education and healthcare, and none at all in depressing wages or preventing houses from being built. (And the high-priced vehicles being sold now pay for the R&D to improve the new technologies. The first portable computers and cell phones were ridiculously expensive toys for the rich, as well.)

TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
Big problem with aluminum is that it has less conductivity and thus is generating more heat in same diameter. However heat and air will cause aluminum cable to oxidize and as a result it will get 1) brittle to point of falling apart. 2) increases it's resistance through oxidation, which will increase heat This is a big problem in Eastern Europe where communist were building concrete apartment towers wired with aluminum wires, it used to be major reason for fires before those towers were reconstructed and aluminum replaced by copper. Today it is forbidden to use aluminum wires in apartments and houses. Aluminum is more-less unusable in installations where you can't shield it from air and where aluminum will heat up.
- sudosysgen 4y ago
  You can compensate for conductivity with larger diameters (modulo the skin effect, but there are options there too). At that point wires don't heat up so much and thus don't oxidize.
  - amelius 4y ago
    Does skin effect even play a role in power delivery? We're not talking about high frequencies here, I suppose.
    - tuatoru 4y ago
      Yes, it does, at distances of thousands of km and 50 or 60 Hz. One of the reasons why high-voltage DC is preferred over those distances.
  - tuatoru 4y ago
    Also use higher voltages, and therefore lower currents. Heat losses are proportional to the square of current, so relatively small voltage increases fix the problem. > Aluminum is more-less unusable in installations where you can't shield it from air and where aluminum will heat up. Your power was probably delivered over hundreds of km of uninsulated steel-cored aluminum wire.
    - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
      So that's the reason why all aluminium wirings in buildings were ripped off and replaced with copper?
      - sudosysgen 4y ago
        Aluminium wiring is still being used in buildings around the world. If the country where you're from banned aluminium wiring for some odd reason, it's probably that the wiring was defective and they couldn't legally or practically replace it with anything except copper wiring.
parkingrift 4y ago
>(And the high-priced vehicles being sold now pay for the R&D to improve the new technologies. The first portable computers and cell phones were ridiculously expensive toys for the rich, as well.) Tesla is nearly 20 years old. This industry is no longer new. We’re deep into the EV movement and prices are actually going up year over year. Just exactly how many more years do you think is needed before these vehicles begin to even approach mass affordability? We’re moving the goalposts on the $35k sweet spot and we still can’t get anywhere near it even with a massive tax credit. Maybe by the time California has banned all combustion engines people will have just stopped driving because they can no longer afford to buy a vehicle to drive.
- kamranjon 4y ago
  What makes you say that prices are going up? The MSRP on a base model 2023 Chevy Bolt with 259 miles of range is 25k without any rebates or tax incentives.
  - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
    Just use google? https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1136374_ev-prices-soar-market-collapse-if-not-cheaper https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1136374_ev-prices-soar-... https://www.theverge.com/2022/8/24/23319794/ev-price-increase-used-cars-analysis-iseecars https://www.theverge.com/2022/8/24/23319794/ev-price-increas...
- cma 4y ago
  There has been 25% inflation since ~2014 when $35K was sold as the sweetspot, so bump that to $44K.
  - parkingrift 4y ago
    See I didn’t even need to describe goalposts moving.
jiggawatts 4y ago
Any time a resources-based discussion related to motor vehicles comes up, I point out that the total iron ore that goes into a modern vehicle costs something like $400, plus minus a few hundred dollars depending on the typical factors. Find me a car where, say, doubling the cost of that iron would materially impact the affordability of the final vehicle. You won't be able to, because the price of all modern vehicles is dominated by other factors: design, certification, manufacture, shipping, taxes, etc... Even batteries. Elon Musk pointed out that it's the lack of cell manufacturing capacity that's holding things up. Even if all of the input materials for a Tesla was suddenly free, its cost wouldn't decrease significantly.

TheLoafOfBread 4y ago

Big problem with aluminum is that it has less conductivity and thus is generating more heat in same diameter. However heat and air will cause aluminum cable to oxidize and as a result it will get 1) brittle to point of falling apart. 2) increases it's resistance through oxidation, which will increase heat This is a big problem in Eastern Europe where communist were building concrete apartment towers wired with aluminum wires, it used to be major reason for fires before those towers were reconstructed and aluminum replaced by copper. Today it is forbidden to use aluminum wires in apartments and houses. Aluminum is more-less unusable in installations where you can't shield it from air and where aluminum will heat up.

sudosysgen 4y ago
You can compensate for conductivity with larger diameters (modulo the skin effect, but there are options there too). At that point wires don't heat up so much and thus don't oxidize.
- amelius 4y ago
  Does skin effect even play a role in power delivery? We're not talking about high frequencies here, I suppose.
  - tuatoru 4y ago
    Yes, it does, at distances of thousands of km and 50 or 60 Hz. One of the reasons why high-voltage DC is preferred over those distances.
- tuatoru 4y ago
  Also use higher voltages, and therefore lower currents. Heat losses are proportional to the square of current, so relatively small voltage increases fix the problem. > Aluminum is more-less unusable in installations where you can't shield it from air and where aluminum will heat up. Your power was probably delivered over hundreds of km of uninsulated steel-cored aluminum wire.
  - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
    So that's the reason why all aluminium wirings in buildings were ripped off and replaced with copper?
    - sudosysgen 4y ago
      Aluminium wiring is still being used in buildings around the world. If the country where you're from banned aluminium wiring for some odd reason, it's probably that the wiring was defective and they couldn't legally or practically replace it with anything except copper wiring.

parkingrift 4y ago

>(And the high-priced vehicles being sold now pay for the R&D to improve the new technologies. The first portable computers and cell phones were ridiculously expensive toys for the rich, as well.) Tesla is nearly 20 years old. This industry is no longer new. We’re deep into the EV movement and prices are actually going up year over year. Just exactly how many more years do you think is needed before these vehicles begin to even approach mass affordability? We’re moving the goalposts on the $35k sweet spot and we still can’t get anywhere near it even with a massive tax credit. Maybe by the time California has banned all combustion engines people will have just stopped driving because they can no longer afford to buy a vehicle to drive.

kamranjon 4y ago
What makes you say that prices are going up? The MSRP on a base model 2023 Chevy Bolt with 259 miles of range is 25k without any rebates or tax incentives.
- TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
  Just use google? https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1136374_ev-prices-soar-market-collapse-if-not-cheaper https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1136374_ev-prices-soar-... https://www.theverge.com/2022/8/24/23319794/ev-price-increase-used-cars-analysis-iseecars https://www.theverge.com/2022/8/24/23319794/ev-price-increas...
cma 4y ago
There has been 25% inflation since ~2014 when $35K was sold as the sweetspot, so bump that to $44K.
- parkingrift 4y ago
  See I didn’t even need to describe goalposts moving.

jiggawatts 4y ago

Any time a resources-based discussion related to motor vehicles comes up, I point out that the total iron ore that goes into a modern vehicle costs something like $400, plus minus a few hundred dollars depending on the typical factors. Find me a car where, say, doubling the cost of that iron would materially impact the affordability of the final vehicle. You won't be able to, because the price of all modern vehicles is dominated by other factors: design, certification, manufacture, shipping, taxes, etc... Even batteries. Elon Musk pointed out that it's the lack of cell manufacturing capacity that's holding things up. Even if all of the input materials for a Tesla was suddenly free, its cost wouldn't decrease significantly.