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Toyota is probably only company who understands that poor people can't afford BEVs and will be left behind. And introducing another EV Hummer or Cybertruck for

Toyota is probably only company who understands that poor people can't afford BEVs and will be left behind. And introducing another EV Hummer or Cybertruck for 100k USD won't really help them to get affordable EV. I am convinced that BEV are not the future, because there is not enough of material, especially there is not enough copper. Assoc Prof Simon Michaux on shortage of copper https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBVmnKuBocc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBVmnKuBocc https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/14/copper-is-key-to-electric-vehicles-wind-and-solar-power-were-short-supply.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/14/copper-is-key-to-electric-ve...

tuatoru 4y ago
Michaux takes a long time to get to the point, even at double speed. None of what I have heard in the first 20 minutes is new to anyone who followed the Peak Oil debate back in the 2005-2009 period. His estimate of required battery capacity for short-distance and light vehicles, around 62 TWh, matches a quick back-of-the envelope calculation, so that's good. The description for the video is unpromising, blurring the distinction between reserves (known, characterized, owned) and resources (varying degrees of knowness, characterization, unowned), and implying we face a binary situation: plenty of resources, and then nothing. The world is not like that. There is always a spectrum of possibilities. We have an extremely abundant adequate substitute for copper for electrical uses: aluminum. The bulk of electrical distribution systems is steel-cored aluminum wire. Is copper better? Yes. Is it so much better than aluminum that the latter is unusable? No. Aluminum's lower electrical and thermal conductivities will require design changes (higher voltage, lower current), and overall efficiency won't be as good as with copper. Very sad. But aluminum is still perfectly usable for EV motors. And there are ways to eke out the copper we have, such as copper-clad aluminum wire (CCAW), which is already extensively used in loudspeakers. Some high currents flow in subwoofer voice coils. As for poor people being left behind, resource prices are not the cause. Very few mineral resources are used in providing education and healthcare, and none at all in depressing wages or preventing houses from being built. (And the high-priced vehicles being sold now pay for the R&D to improve the new technologies. The first portable computers and cell phones were ridiculously expensive toys for the rich, as well.)
- TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
  Big problem with aluminum is that it has less conductivity and thus is generating more heat in same diameter. However heat and air will cause aluminum cable to oxidize and as a result it will get 1) brittle to point of falling apart. 2) increases it's resistance through oxidation, which will increase heat This is a big problem in Eastern Europe where communist were building concrete apartment towers wired with aluminum wires, it used to be major reason for fires before those towers were reconstructed and aluminum replaced by copper. Today it is forbidden to use aluminum wires in apartments and houses. Aluminum is more-less unusable in installations where you can't shield it from air and where aluminum will heat up.
  - sudosysgen 4y ago
    You can compensate for conductivity with larger diameters (modulo the skin effect, but there are options there too). At that point wires don't heat up so much and thus don't oxidize.
    - amelius 4y ago
      Does skin effect even play a role in power delivery? We're not talking about high frequencies here, I suppose.
      - tuatoru 4y ago
        Yes, it does, at distances of thousands of km and 50 or 60 Hz. One of the reasons why high-voltage DC is preferred over those distances.
    - tuatoru 4y ago
      Also use higher voltages, and therefore lower currents. Heat losses are proportional to the square of current, so relatively small voltage increases fix the problem. > Aluminum is more-less unusable in installations where you can't shield it from air and where aluminum will heat up. Your power was probably delivered over hundreds of km of uninsulated steel-cored aluminum wire.
Tagbert 4y ago
Poor people can’t afford new cars of any kind. What they need are more EV cars getting into the used market. And more mandates for apartments and businesses to provide overnight A/C charging outlets.
- Spivak 4y ago
  That only gets you some of the way there. The next hurdle is that a lot of low income housing is street parking only that isn't always reserved for the owner. So this is an awkward situation where we will probably also need residential streets to come with either city paid for charging or a change in zoning so that owners can reserve the spots in front of their house and install chargers.
  - Tao3300 4y ago
    > need residential streets to come with either city paid for charging or a change in zoning so that owners can reserve the spots in front of their house and install chargers Which I'm sure will work great in those neighborhoods.
- cmurf 4y ago
  Can poor people afford to maintain either hybrid or electric? What's the third party repair market? There is no right to repair a Tesla or anything using that business model.
  - KennyBlanken 4y ago
    Why don't you google "EV maintenance costs compared to gas cars" and see if you can answer your own question. Also, one luuxury car brand is not relevant to the discussion of "can poor people afford to maintain an EV?"
- 7speter 4y ago
  Except at least one car company wants people to only have the option to lease their electric cars and turn them back in at the end of the lease. If this cash grab attempt becomes the trend… https://jalopnik.com/ford-credit-wont-allow-lessees-to-buy-out-its-evs-1849105752 https://jalopnik.com/ford-credit-wont-allow-lessees-to-buy-o...
KennyBlanken 4y ago
If one isn't looking to pick cherries to suit their "EVs aren't affordable!!!!!" argument: the Bolt EV is $31k MSRP, not including state and federal tax credits. That's substantially lower than the average price of a car sold in the US ($47k) or average pickup ($60k!) And by the way: halo cars like the Hummer finance R&D. The Hummer is helping GM pay R&D costs on the Ultium system/platform, which will be re-used for a huge number of vehicles in the coming years.
- TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
  So can I buy VW Jetta for a price of Jetta with a range of Jetta in EV version? I can't.
Alex3917 4y ago
> Toyota is probably only company who understands that poor people can't afford BEVs and will be left behind. EVs have vastly less total parts and therefore will soon be more affordable.
- TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
  Heap of sand has more parts than ingot of gold. It doesn't really really matter how many parts you have when your input is made out of rare resources
hedora 4y ago
Near mint condition used EV's were readily available for $20k before the gas crisis.
- TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
  And with 20 miles on battery. Change of batter 10-20k
  - hedora 4y ago
    My i3 was $22K, and is close to 100% factory spec. Leafs that needed new batteries were going for $12k; reasonable ones were $17-20k. This was the week the war in Ukraine started.

tuatoru 4y ago

Michaux takes a long time to get to the point, even at double speed. None of what I have heard in the first 20 minutes is new to anyone who followed the Peak Oil debate back in the 2005-2009 period. His estimate of required battery capacity for short-distance and light vehicles, around 62 TWh, matches a quick back-of-the envelope calculation, so that's good. The description for the video is unpromising, blurring the distinction between reserves (known, characterized, owned) and resources (varying degrees of knowness, characterization, unowned), and implying we face a binary situation: plenty of resources, and then nothing. The world is not like that. There is always a spectrum of possibilities. We have an extremely abundant adequate substitute for copper for electrical uses: aluminum. The bulk of electrical distribution systems is steel-cored aluminum wire. Is copper better? Yes. Is it so much better than aluminum that the latter is unusable? No. Aluminum's lower electrical and thermal conductivities will require design changes (higher voltage, lower current), and overall efficiency won't be as good as with copper. Very sad. But aluminum is still perfectly usable for EV motors. And there are ways to eke out the copper we have, such as copper-clad aluminum wire (CCAW), which is already extensively used in loudspeakers. Some high currents flow in subwoofer voice coils. As for poor people being left behind, resource prices are not the cause. Very few mineral resources are used in providing education and healthcare, and none at all in depressing wages or preventing houses from being built. (And the high-priced vehicles being sold now pay for the R&D to improve the new technologies. The first portable computers and cell phones were ridiculously expensive toys for the rich, as well.)

TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
Big problem with aluminum is that it has less conductivity and thus is generating more heat in same diameter. However heat and air will cause aluminum cable to oxidize and as a result it will get 1) brittle to point of falling apart. 2) increases it's resistance through oxidation, which will increase heat This is a big problem in Eastern Europe where communist were building concrete apartment towers wired with aluminum wires, it used to be major reason for fires before those towers were reconstructed and aluminum replaced by copper. Today it is forbidden to use aluminum wires in apartments and houses. Aluminum is more-less unusable in installations where you can't shield it from air and where aluminum will heat up.
- sudosysgen 4y ago
  You can compensate for conductivity with larger diameters (modulo the skin effect, but there are options there too). At that point wires don't heat up so much and thus don't oxidize.
  - amelius 4y ago
    Does skin effect even play a role in power delivery? We're not talking about high frequencies here, I suppose.
    - tuatoru 4y ago
      Yes, it does, at distances of thousands of km and 50 or 60 Hz. One of the reasons why high-voltage DC is preferred over those distances.
  - tuatoru 4y ago
    Also use higher voltages, and therefore lower currents. Heat losses are proportional to the square of current, so relatively small voltage increases fix the problem. > Aluminum is more-less unusable in installations where you can't shield it from air and where aluminum will heat up. Your power was probably delivered over hundreds of km of uninsulated steel-cored aluminum wire.

Tagbert 4y ago

Poor people can’t afford new cars of any kind. What they need are more EV cars getting into the used market. And more mandates for apartments and businesses to provide overnight A/C charging outlets.

Spivak 4y ago
That only gets you some of the way there. The next hurdle is that a lot of low income housing is street parking only that isn't always reserved for the owner. So this is an awkward situation where we will probably also need residential streets to come with either city paid for charging or a change in zoning so that owners can reserve the spots in front of their house and install chargers.
- Tao3300 4y ago
  > need residential streets to come with either city paid for charging or a change in zoning so that owners can reserve the spots in front of their house and install chargers Which I'm sure will work great in those neighborhoods.
cmurf 4y ago
Can poor people afford to maintain either hybrid or electric? What's the third party repair market? There is no right to repair a Tesla or anything using that business model.
- KennyBlanken 4y ago
  Why don't you google "EV maintenance costs compared to gas cars" and see if you can answer your own question. Also, one luuxury car brand is not relevant to the discussion of "can poor people afford to maintain an EV?"
7speter 4y ago
Except at least one car company wants people to only have the option to lease their electric cars and turn them back in at the end of the lease. If this cash grab attempt becomes the trend… https://jalopnik.com/ford-credit-wont-allow-lessees-to-buy-out-its-evs-1849105752 https://jalopnik.com/ford-credit-wont-allow-lessees-to-buy-o...

KennyBlanken 4y ago

If one isn't looking to pick cherries to suit their "EVs aren't affordable!!!!!" argument: the Bolt EV is $31k MSRP, not including state and federal tax credits. That's substantially lower than the average price of a car sold in the US ($47k) or average pickup ($60k!) And by the way: halo cars like the Hummer finance R&D. The Hummer is helping GM pay R&D costs on the Ultium system/platform, which will be re-used for a huge number of vehicles in the coming years.

TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
So can I buy VW Jetta for a price of Jetta with a range of Jetta in EV version? I can't.

Alex3917 4y ago

> Toyota is probably only company who understands that poor people can't afford BEVs and will be left behind. EVs have vastly less total parts and therefore will soon be more affordable.

TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
Heap of sand has more parts than ingot of gold. It doesn't really really matter how many parts you have when your input is made out of rare resources

hedora 4y ago

Near mint condition used EV's were readily available for $20k before the gas crisis.

TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
And with 20 miles on battery. Change of batter 10-20k
- hedora 4y ago
  My i3 was $22K, and is close to 100% factory spec. Leafs that needed new batteries were going for $12k; reasonable ones were $17-20k. This was the week the war in Ukraine started.