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Nonsense. This observation is unworthy of a genius like Norvig and anyway it's not even generally true: it's all a matter of perspective, and the associated rev

by smcin 4y ago

Nonsense. This observation is unworthy of a genius like Norvig and anyway it's not even generally true: it's all a matter of perspective, and the associated revenue model (purchase vs. subscription model). Whether the glass is half-full or empty depends entirely on perspective: whether I'm looking at this as a seller of a device (e.g. smartphone/PC/laptop/tablet) then maybe I only think of once-off purchases. But if I'm Microsoft (software suite/subscription) or Adobe or Netflix or Apple iTunes, then high penetration of my target market is great, it gives me recurring sales/subscriptions(/users on a social network, to serve ads to). If I'm an independent app developer, I love that Android has high penetration, or else that iOS has market segment of users with high propensity to spend on both app and IAP; but whatever I do, in the 2020s I don't target Microsoft Phone/ Nokia/ Blackberry/ PalmOS (RIP). Maybe HarmonyOS. (Also, high penetration and market share have a tertiary effect of squashing potential competition by siphoning revenues that might go to competitors. Anyone remember last.fm [0]? remember how Microsoft destroyed RealNetworks's business model [1] by giving away streaming-media server software for free? ("According to some accounts, in 2000 more than 85% of streaming content on the Internet was in the Real format.") We will see the rebuttal of Norvig's Law when Netflix launches its ad-supported tiers. Or we saw it during 2020-2021/Covid, when Amazon aggressively pushed its discounted Prime to fixed-/low-income EBT/Medicaid/other government assistance recipients (at least in the US) [2,3] With all due respect to Norvig (and if you've read his AI book or ever seen him speak in person, he's undilutedly brilliant, and also humble), he should get out there and try to sell a subscription-based device/service. Lemonade-Stand-for-web3.0, if you will... "customer acquisition" is not a dirty phrase. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last.fm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last.fm [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RealNetworks#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RealNetworks#History [2] https://www.amazon.com/gp/help/customer/display.html?nodeId=G54BETR9USUZFZW5 https://www.amazon.com/gp/help/customer/display.html?nodeId=... [3] https://techcrunch.com/2018/03/07/1604211/ https://techcrunch.com/2018/03/07/1604211/

deleted 4y ago
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chrisoverzero 4y ago
I’m running a subscription-based service, but I’ve stalled at 57% market penetration. Can you give me some advice on how I can double my market penetration from this point? Remember, what I’m looking for is 114% market penetration. Any help you can provide will be gratefully appreciated.
- smcin 4y ago
  You missed my point entirely with your sarcasm. Partner companies selling apps on your service don't care that you only have 43% of the market left to capture; that's entirely your business problem, not theirs. However they very much do like that you already have 57% market share; from their perspective, that's good not bad. That's precisely why I write _"it's all a matter of perspective, and the associated revenue model (purchase vs. subscription model). Whether the glass is half-full or empty depends entirely on perspective"_. Understand now? When Palm and then Blackberry died as platforms, vendors simply moved to a new platform and ported/rewrote.
  - chrisoverzero 4y ago
    > However they very much do like that you already have 57% market share […] But if they want you to double it, you’re going to have some bad news to report.
- harry8 4y ago
  Sell 2+ subs to every customer, eg separate phone from car from desktop. I will not make jokes involving the word double and shame on you if you thought of it too. Definitions are boring, no growth is limitless by entropy.
- bombcar 4y ago
  Bundle your subscription with things that some or most of your customers already have - but make it impossible to migrate data from existing accounts. So Prime gives them whatever it is, but they can’t cancel their current subscription. Win-win evil.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
kragen 4y ago
Norvig said that: > To be clear, it all depends on what you count. If you're counting units sold, you can double your count by selling everyone 1 unit, then 2, then 4, etc. (In Finland I understand that cell phone usage is above 1 per capita, but still growing.) If you're counting the total number of households that own the product, you can double your count by doubling the population, or by convincing everyone to divorce and become two households. But if you're counting percentage of people (or households), there's just no more doubling after you pass 50%.

by smcin 4y ago

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

chrisoverzero 4y ago

I’m running a subscription-based service, but I’ve stalled at 57% market penetration. Can you give me some advice on how I can double my market penetration from this point? Remember, what I’m looking for is 114% market penetration. Any help you can provide will be gratefully appreciated.

smcin 4y ago
You missed my point entirely with your sarcasm. Partner companies selling apps on your service don't care that you only have 43% of the market left to capture; that's entirely your business problem, not theirs. However they very much do like that you already have 57% market share; from their perspective, that's good not bad. That's precisely why I write _"it's all a matter of perspective, and the associated revenue model (purchase vs. subscription model). Whether the glass is half-full or empty depends entirely on perspective"_. Understand now? When Palm and then Blackberry died as platforms, vendors simply moved to a new platform and ported/rewrote.
- chrisoverzero 4y ago
  > However they very much do like that you already have 57% market share […] But if they want you to double it, you’re going to have some bad news to report.
harry8 4y ago
Sell 2+ subs to every customer, eg separate phone from car from desktop. I will not make jokes involving the word double and shame on you if you thought of it too. Definitions are boring, no growth is limitless by entropy.
bombcar 4y ago
Bundle your subscription with things that some or most of your customers already have - but make it impossible to migrate data from existing accounts. So Prime gives them whatever it is, but they can’t cancel their current subscription. Win-win evil.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

kragen 4y ago

Norvig said that: > To be clear, it all depends on what you count. If you're counting units sold, you can double your count by selling everyone 1 unit, then 2, then 4, etc. (In Finland I understand that cell phone usage is above 1 per capita, but still growing.) If you're counting the total number of households that own the product, you can double your count by doubling the population, or by convincing everyone to divorce and become two households. But if you're counting percentage of people (or households), there's just no more doubling after you pass 50%.