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When you looked at it, what was it that tipped you off to its eventual failure? Was it a flaw in the technical design or something? How did you know it would ev

When you looked at it, what was it that tipped you off to its eventual failure? Was it a flaw in the technical design or something? How did you know it would eventually fail? (Looking to learn how to spot things like that, here!)

dekhn 4y ago
My google failure sensors were honed on reader and google plus. In fact I just rejoined a company I worked at before Google and they had adopted Currents- Google's workspace version of Google Plus. Folks tried to get me to use it and all I could say was: I will never use Google Plus again. We are shutting down our Currents because... nobody ever uses it. There's several factors at play. First, Google simply does not have any ability to compete in the consumer gaming space because they don't understand it. Second, to make the project work required an enormous expenditure across hardware, software, deployment, and game studios. If the product wasn't absurdly successful, it would be a failure simply because its profit margins would be low. Third, there's no real way to make money doing machine learning on gamer behavior (the way this works in mobile, where many games including ads) so the profit margin would be low. Fourth, I saw a number of preeminent engineers who worked on the project leave shortly after it was launched, or some time later (when it first started becoming obvious the project wasn't a hit). Fifth, leadership pitched this as something that only Google could do, that Google's unique hardware and physical presence in POPs meant they would have significant advantages was obviously wrong (multiple companies always had the technical acumen and production infrastructure to make this happen). What really blows me away is how close Google Cloud is becoming to something that Google would have to cancel because they can't get the profit margins to compare to ads.
- vdfs 4y ago
  Everything can be shutdown except Youtube, Search and 8.8.8.8
  - hackernudes 4y ago
    Gmail?
    - jaza 4y ago
      There are a significant number of large orgs on G Suite enterprise now. And Gmail is a key part of the offering for many. So they won't be shutting down Gmail altogether anytime soon. Although sunsetting free Gmail accounts in the future wouldn't be out of the question.
  - forgotpwd16 4y ago
    Why is 8.8.8.8 considered core product?
    - vdfs 4y ago
      In reference to https://xkcd.com/1361/ https://xkcd.com/1361/
      - forgotpwd16 4y ago
        Ah, ok. Haven't seen this before. Interestingly the peeps at Google probably liked it as the comic's address is found in txt records of dns.google (via cli: `dig +short txt dns.google` or `host -t txt dns.google`).
- wsgeorge 4y ago
  > What really blows me away is how close Google Cloud is becoming to something that Google would have to cancel because they can't get the profit margins to compare to ads. I imagine GC is one of the big three cloud platforms (with AWS, Azure) so I am absolutely intrigued by your suggestion. How bad is it going, really? They've made a lot of investment in Firebase also. I could probably see them shake things up drastically, but shutting down sounds like suicide.
  - bluepizza 4y ago
    As a GCP customer, I must say, it is not on the same level as AWS and Azure. Every single product offered by GCP is severely lacking when compared to the top competition. It is very clear to me that GCP is not a priority for Google.
  - dougmwne 4y ago
    GCP lost nearly a billion dollars last year and are trailing in 3rd place. It’s shameful really.
- fomine3 4y ago
  It's interesting that both Apple and Google still aren't very good at gaming. Maybe this is a big reason why Nintendo Switch is still the king despite smartphone is ubiquitous?

dekhn 4y ago

My google failure sensors were honed on reader and google plus. In fact I just rejoined a company I worked at before Google and they had adopted Currents- Google's workspace version of Google Plus. Folks tried to get me to use it and all I could say was: I will never use Google Plus again. We are shutting down our Currents because... nobody ever uses it. There's several factors at play. First, Google simply does not have any ability to compete in the consumer gaming space because they don't understand it. Second, to make the project work required an enormous expenditure across hardware, software, deployment, and game studios. If the product wasn't absurdly successful, it would be a failure simply because its profit margins would be low. Third, there's no real way to make money doing machine learning on gamer behavior (the way this works in mobile, where many games including ads) so the profit margin would be low. Fourth, I saw a number of preeminent engineers who worked on the project leave shortly after it was launched, or some time later (when it first started becoming obvious the project wasn't a hit). Fifth, leadership pitched this as something that only Google could do, that Google's unique hardware and physical presence in POPs meant they would have significant advantages was obviously wrong (multiple companies always had the technical acumen and production infrastructure to make this happen). What really blows me away is how close Google Cloud is becoming to something that Google would have to cancel because they can't get the profit margins to compare to ads.

vdfs 4y ago
Everything can be shutdown except Youtube, Search and 8.8.8.8
- hackernudes 4y ago
  Gmail?
  - jaza 4y ago
    There are a significant number of large orgs on G Suite enterprise now. And Gmail is a key part of the offering for many. So they won't be shutting down Gmail altogether anytime soon. Although sunsetting free Gmail accounts in the future wouldn't be out of the question.
- forgotpwd16 4y ago
  Why is 8.8.8.8 considered core product?
  - vdfs 4y ago
    In reference to https://xkcd.com/1361/ https://xkcd.com/1361/
    - forgotpwd16 4y ago
      Ah, ok. Haven't seen this before. Interestingly the peeps at Google probably liked it as the comic's address is found in txt records of dns.google (via cli: `dig +short txt dns.google` or `host -t txt dns.google`).
wsgeorge 4y ago
> What really blows me away is how close Google Cloud is becoming to something that Google would have to cancel because they can't get the profit margins to compare to ads. I imagine GC is one of the big three cloud platforms (with AWS, Azure) so I am absolutely intrigued by your suggestion. How bad is it going, really? They've made a lot of investment in Firebase also. I could probably see them shake things up drastically, but shutting down sounds like suicide.
- bluepizza 4y ago
  As a GCP customer, I must say, it is not on the same level as AWS and Azure. Every single product offered by GCP is severely lacking when compared to the top competition. It is very clear to me that GCP is not a priority for Google.
- dougmwne 4y ago
  GCP lost nearly a billion dollars last year and are trailing in 3rd place. It’s shameful really.
fomine3 4y ago
It's interesting that both Apple and Google still aren't very good at gaming. Maybe this is a big reason why Nintendo Switch is still the king despite smartphone is ubiquitous?