5 ms·

I agree, it's a great time to invest, but remember - the market can stay irrational longer then you can stay solvent. It may take 15-30 years for the market to

by smakz 18y ago

I agree, it's a great time to invest, but remember - the market can stay irrational longer then you can stay solvent. It may take 15-30 years for the market to "recover", can you wait it out long enough without being forced to withdraw money from the market at a bad time?

marvin 18y ago
That saying was invented to warn people buying on margin. For people who are saving and have a steady income, this kind of solvency is really not an issue.
kingkongrevenge 18y ago
So there is a New York Times article saying now might be a buying opportunity, and you readily find posts here in the same vein. This STRONGLY indicates the bottom is a LONG way away. At true secular bottoms nobody mainstream is even asking if the bottom is in; they're too scared off the asset class. Think of the mirror image: the top. In 2000 and 2007 did you repeatedly hear the press and random normal people debate if the top is in and things were set to plunge? No, you didn't. That's just not how mass market psychology works.
- dmix 18y ago
  I see where your coming from, but this NYTimes article is far from the "mass" opinion of the press or the average stockholder. The simple fact is that people who have enough wealth/capital to take risks during a recession, generally do very well when the economy recovers.
  - kingkongrevenge 18y ago
    > is far from the "mass" opinion of the press or the average stockholder I think it is very much the mass opinion. People are expecting some sort of rebound next year or the year after. Surveys show most home owners continue to think their houses will appreciate substantially over the next three years. The contrarian buy-time is WAY off.
josefresco 18y ago
The market does not need to "recover" fully in order for life to return and remain normal for most people. Simply getting back to "where we were" is an arbitrary goal.

by smakz 18y ago

marvin 18y ago

That saying was invented to warn people buying on margin. For people who are saving and have a steady income, this kind of solvency is really not an issue.

kingkongrevenge 18y ago

So there is a New York Times article saying now might be a buying opportunity, and you readily find posts here in the same vein. This STRONGLY indicates the bottom is a LONG way away. At true secular bottoms nobody mainstream is even asking if the bottom is in; they're too scared off the asset class. Think of the mirror image: the top. In 2000 and 2007 did you repeatedly hear the press and random normal people debate if the top is in and things were set to plunge? No, you didn't. That's just not how mass market psychology works.

dmix 18y ago
I see where your coming from, but this NYTimes article is far from the "mass" opinion of the press or the average stockholder. The simple fact is that people who have enough wealth/capital to take risks during a recession, generally do very well when the economy recovers.
- kingkongrevenge 18y ago
  > is far from the "mass" opinion of the press or the average stockholder I think it is very much the mass opinion. People are expecting some sort of rebound next year or the year after. Surveys show most home owners continue to think their houses will appreciate substantially over the next three years. The contrarian buy-time is WAY off.

josefresco 18y ago

The market does not need to "recover" fully in order for life to return and remain normal for most people. Simply getting back to "where we were" is an arbitrary goal.