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> China has one formal alliance. This is a geopolitical trope about 20 years out of date. Don’t be surprised when dozens of African and Asian countries choos

by fooker 4y ago

> China has one formal alliance. This is a geopolitical trope about 20 years out of date. Don’t be surprised when dozens of African and Asian countries choose China over Western interests if push comes to shove.

seanmcdirmid 4y ago
> Don’t be surprised when dozens of African and Asian countries choose China over Western interests if push comes to shove. And don't be surprised if they don't. Even if China has a lot of frenemies on its border in Asia, every country in Asia has some fear over China, and this often pushes them to improve their relationship with the USA (e.g. Vietnam). Even Russia and North Korea have some antagonism with China. None of their relationships are particularly strong. > This is a geopolitical trope about 20 years out of date. I don't think. China hasn't done much to court soft power in the last 20 years beyond a some loans for infrastructure made by Chinese companies. They still are inwardly focused.
- hosh 4y ago
  1. China has been building out their railroad net for years now, both internally and reaching outwards 2. Those synergize with the loans. They are not "some" loans 3. Cultural exports have been going on for a while, though it has not been as successful as South Korea or Japan 4. China has been seriously wooing back Western-educated citizens to head R&D in a variety areas, for the past ten years or so. Quality-of-life, career advancements, respect and social status exceeds that of staying in the West. That's more the sufficient to successfully bring expertise back. 5. China has been adding more people into the international computing and network standards community. They are starting to influence that. 6. China has been developing its naval power. While it has yet to field a fully operational carrier group, its drone carrier program is probably further along than the US Navy 7. China needs to secure a supply of crude oil, since they are a net importer. The SE Asian shipping corridor, of which the Taiwanese strait anchors one end of it, is going to be hotly contested. 8. Along with some other countries, China has been involved in creation of an alternate world reserve currency. That is not yet successful as far as I know. I think the general nationalist sentiment among Chinese citizens is along the lines of, "we were once a superpower, why shouldn't we be again?". And, the culture tends to be more amendable to thinking generationally; that is, the benefits may not be realized in this generation, but that's ok.
  - smcl 4y ago
    Among other things, right now I don't think Quality-of-life is particularly high if you run the risk of suddenly being locked down in place or thrown in a covid hospital (friend of mine went through both, sounded very unpleasant indeed)
    - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
      Ya, China's Zero COVID policy has reversed this trend for sure. It isn't just getting lockdown that people are worried about, but the inability to freely travel without a long quarantine at the end of the trip.
      - Zigurd 4y ago
        TBF China hasn't got a lot of choice. They do not have a highly effective vaccine. Millions of people in China would die if COVID were allowed to spread. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
        deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
        prottog 4y ago
        I'm not advocating that millions of people die in a vacuum, but millions of people risking death so that the other billion people in China could live a normal life is at least worth considering the trade-off. The median age of a Covid death in the US, with its obese and unhealthy population, is around the average life expectancy with some room for error. I can't imagine that China fares worse in that regard.
        Zigurd 4y ago
        The Chinese government would likely consider letting COVID rip through the population if they could survive the consequences of an overwhelmed health system and the numbers of dead.
- karaterobot 4y ago
  > beyond a some loans for infrastructure made by Chinese companies. You say that like it's not a big deal, but it is. The Belt and Road initiative precipitated major shifts in geopolitics.
  - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
    I don't think the Chinese have bought as much goodwill as they think they have, and right now many of those loans are going south fast, so it will be a real cost.
- somenameforme 4y ago
  I see China's soft power quite a bit differently. China has an increasingly large presence throughout all of Asia. There are obviously the government initiatives but in many ways the non-governmental stuff is far more visible. 1.4 billion people + rapidly growing middle class = Chinese are absolutely everywhere. Chinese tourists are playing an increasingly large role in the economies of nations throughout Asia, even including Japan with whom China has poor relations. There are also large numbers of students from China that are living/studying abroad (Gaokao), and so on. This is all creating an increasing intermingling of cultures and economies that's improving relations in a meaningful way. It's easy to discount this sort of stuff, but I think it is what really changes the world in the longterm. When people themselves are able to change their own views gradually over time, without effort at "directing" them, those resultant views tend to be quite difficult to ever change. It's in this domain that we were once unrivaled.
  - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
    Asian countries do not dislike Chinese people and culture: they have had large communities of Chinese immigrants for a long time, they don't mind the tourism and like the students as well. But that says nothing about whether they like the Chinese government or not: be it the Communists, Nationalists, or Qing dynasty, that's where the friction begins.
Aunche 4y ago
It's not even exclusive to developing nations. For example, Portugal tends to side with China.
FredPret 4y ago
China sends a pile of money to Africa. But there is a growing disillusionment with their investments. For example, they would promise to develop infrastructure in exchange for mineral rights. So they move in a large number of Chinese, creating zero local jobs. Then they mine out the resources as fast as possible and move out. And right after that, the infrastructure invariably falls apart. They can only screw so many countries before everybody catches on.
- t43562 4y ago
  Zimbabwean here: our elite will take money from whoever will give it and make nice noises and when the time comes to pay it back in some way that involves and actual cost to themselves..........will find the next donor. The Chinese (and any other country) will only get out of Africa that which they can demand today quid-pro-quo. There won't be any loyalty.
  - FredPret 4y ago
    100% the pattern I saw in other countries too; Mozambique, South Africa. No reason to expect a different trend further north
  - fooker 4y ago
    Here, the carrot is more money of course. And the stick is sanctions, and then regime change/military action/etc if other countries don’t protest too much. This has worked pretty well for the US for the last 70ish years. The same playbook can work for China, they are betting.
    - t43562 4y ago
      Zimbabwe has faced sanctions regularly - it's of little interest because it doesn't really disempower the elite.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

by fooker 4y ago

seanmcdirmid 4y ago

> Don’t be surprised when dozens of African and Asian countries choose China over Western interests if push comes to shove. And don't be surprised if they don't. Even if China has a lot of frenemies on its border in Asia, every country in Asia has some fear over China, and this often pushes them to improve their relationship with the USA (e.g. Vietnam). Even Russia and North Korea have some antagonism with China. None of their relationships are particularly strong. > This is a geopolitical trope about 20 years out of date. I don't think. China hasn't done much to court soft power in the last 20 years beyond a some loans for infrastructure made by Chinese companies. They still are inwardly focused.

hosh 4y ago
1. China has been building out their railroad net for years now, both internally and reaching outwards 2. Those synergize with the loans. They are not "some" loans 3. Cultural exports have been going on for a while, though it has not been as successful as South Korea or Japan 4. China has been seriously wooing back Western-educated citizens to head R&D in a variety areas, for the past ten years or so. Quality-of-life, career advancements, respect and social status exceeds that of staying in the West. That's more the sufficient to successfully bring expertise back. 5. China has been adding more people into the international computing and network standards community. They are starting to influence that. 6. China has been developing its naval power. While it has yet to field a fully operational carrier group, its drone carrier program is probably further along than the US Navy 7. China needs to secure a supply of crude oil, since they are a net importer. The SE Asian shipping corridor, of which the Taiwanese strait anchors one end of it, is going to be hotly contested. 8. Along with some other countries, China has been involved in creation of an alternate world reserve currency. That is not yet successful as far as I know. I think the general nationalist sentiment among Chinese citizens is along the lines of, "we were once a superpower, why shouldn't we be again?". And, the culture tends to be more amendable to thinking generationally; that is, the benefits may not be realized in this generation, but that's ok.
- smcl 4y ago
  Among other things, right now I don't think Quality-of-life is particularly high if you run the risk of suddenly being locked down in place or thrown in a covid hospital (friend of mine went through both, sounded very unpleasant indeed)
  - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
    Ya, China's Zero COVID policy has reversed this trend for sure. It isn't just getting lockdown that people are worried about, but the inability to freely travel without a long quarantine at the end of the trip.
    - Zigurd 4y ago
      TBF China hasn't got a lot of choice. They do not have a highly effective vaccine. Millions of people in China would die if COVID were allowed to spread. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
      - prottog 4y ago
        I'm not advocating that millions of people die in a vacuum, but millions of people risking death so that the other billion people in China could live a normal life is at least worth considering the trade-off. The median age of a Covid death in the US, with its obese and unhealthy population, is around the average life expectancy with some room for error. I can't imagine that China fares worse in that regard.
        Zigurd 4y ago
        The Chinese government would likely consider letting COVID rip through the population if they could survive the consequences of an overwhelmed health system and the numbers of dead.
karaterobot 4y ago
> beyond a some loans for infrastructure made by Chinese companies. You say that like it's not a big deal, but it is. The Belt and Road initiative precipitated major shifts in geopolitics.
- seanmcdirmid 4y ago
  I don't think the Chinese have bought as much goodwill as they think they have, and right now many of those loans are going south fast, so it will be a real cost.
somenameforme 4y ago
I see China's soft power quite a bit differently. China has an increasingly large presence throughout all of Asia. There are obviously the government initiatives but in many ways the non-governmental stuff is far more visible. 1.4 billion people + rapidly growing middle class = Chinese are absolutely everywhere. Chinese tourists are playing an increasingly large role in the economies of nations throughout Asia, even including Japan with whom China has poor relations. There are also large numbers of students from China that are living/studying abroad (Gaokao), and so on. This is all creating an increasing intermingling of cultures and economies that's improving relations in a meaningful way. It's easy to discount this sort of stuff, but I think it is what really changes the world in the longterm. When people themselves are able to change their own views gradually over time, without effort at "directing" them, those resultant views tend to be quite difficult to ever change. It's in this domain that we were once unrivaled.
- seanmcdirmid 4y ago
  Asian countries do not dislike Chinese people and culture: they have had large communities of Chinese immigrants for a long time, they don't mind the tourism and like the students as well. But that says nothing about whether they like the Chinese government or not: be it the Communists, Nationalists, or Qing dynasty, that's where the friction begins.

Aunche 4y ago

It's not even exclusive to developing nations. For example, Portugal tends to side with China.

FredPret 4y ago

China sends a pile of money to Africa. But there is a growing disillusionment with their investments. For example, they would promise to develop infrastructure in exchange for mineral rights. So they move in a large number of Chinese, creating zero local jobs. Then they mine out the resources as fast as possible and move out. And right after that, the infrastructure invariably falls apart. They can only screw so many countries before everybody catches on.

t43562 4y ago
Zimbabwean here: our elite will take money from whoever will give it and make nice noises and when the time comes to pay it back in some way that involves and actual cost to themselves..........will find the next donor. The Chinese (and any other country) will only get out of Africa that which they can demand today quid-pro-quo. There won't be any loyalty.
- FredPret 4y ago
  100% the pattern I saw in other countries too; Mozambique, South Africa. No reason to expect a different trend further north
- fooker 4y ago
  Here, the carrot is more money of course. And the stick is sanctions, and then regime change/military action/etc if other countries don’t protest too much. This has worked pretty well for the US for the last 70ish years. The same playbook can work for China, they are betting.
  - t43562 4y ago
    Zimbabwe has faced sanctions regularly - it's of little interest because it doesn't really disempower the elite.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]