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There's also "the Sicilian option". Putin, knowing that the pipelines are no longer practically useful, blew them up deliberately to seed mistrust and disconten

There's also "the Sicilian option". Putin, knowing that the pipelines are no longer practically useful, blew them up deliberately to seed mistrust and discontent among NATO allies. It's a mindbender, but he's also a former KGB officer and may have bombed his own people to justify the 2nd Chechen war[1]. He can only succeed in Ukraine if he divides Ukraine's western allies. What other tools does he have? [1] https://www.thisamericanlife.org/614/transcript https://www.thisamericanlife.org/614/transcript

lurquer 4y ago
> It's a mindbender, but he's also a former KGB officer Your speculations are interesting. But the above adds nothing. There’s nothing magical about having been in the KGB and one can’t determine one’s aptitude for ‘sneakiness’ from same. It’s just silly. Putin has been in power for 20+ years. There’s no need to draw conclusions about his character from his KGB days when you have such a rich history since then. As an analogy, I remember when folks said Reagan was a great communicator because he had been an actor. Hogwash. He had been a politician far longer than an actor, served as the governor of California, leadership roles in the party and unions, etc. That is, his skill in communication while President was fostered from these experiences and not some ancient movie acting he did.
- 0x457 4y ago
  It's silly. Even if you include training in KGB, he was a politician for longer than the was at KGB. He was president longer than his active KGB career. Plus, his KGB career wasn't all that glorious: counterintelligence here, collecting newspapers there, maybe donated a few guns there.
techdragon 4y ago
I’ve got no proof he did it, but based on his other actions, he’s one of the only people I can believe might do it, for reasons exactly like this. The other candidate in my mind is the USA based on the weirdly vehement comments earlier this year about never letting the Nord Stream 2 happen. It just doesn’t make any sense at all for someone else, it’s either weird, overly convoluted, risky or impossible based on lack of necessary equipment… this isn’t something you can just do a lone wolf terrorist attack against, it’s armoured agains ship anchors, sunk into the seabed, and deep underwater, you can’t just bomb it with some home made depth charges from a fishing boat… which is why this whole thing is so damn weird.
philliphaydon 4y ago
> Putin, knowing that the pipelines are no longer practically useful Didn't he also sign up to build a new pipeline into China? Looks like China stands to win from all this, if Russia can't send the gas anywhere China can dictate the price they will pay.
- trasz 4y ago
  China is already dictating the price - it’s been like this even before war. Without gas they have no reason to tolerate Putin.
  - OrvalWintermute 4y ago
    > Without gas they have no reason to tolerate Putin. Nope. If you think about this on a geopolitical scale, China has every interest in wanting their Northern border with Russia secure, and to advance the Chinese Belt & Road initiative, and collaborate on non-USD currency trading, and other things that make them both sanctions resistant. China also wants Russian Technology where they still hold leadership positions. Most importantly, China wants Taiwan back. The global balance of power may shift in China's favor if the best fabs in the world are suddenly Chinese, and they can sanction the US, limiting their access to chips. These supply chain issues would be a great tool during wartime.
    - nradov 4y ago
      Even if China manages to conquer Taiwan (they don't yet have enough amphibious lift capacity to make it stick), the important fabs are likely to be wrecked. And even if China manages to capture some equipment intact, they won't be able to operate it without support from ASML and other foreign vendors. US politicians have finally woken up to the risk of being dependent on China for strategically important semiconductors, hence the support for measures like the CHIPS Act. The window for China to be able to credibly threaten us with sanctions is rapidly closing. https://usafacts.org/articles/whats-in-the-recently-passed-chips-act/ https://usafacts.org/articles/whats-in-the-recently-passed-c...
    - 4y ago

lurquer 4y ago

> It's a mindbender, but he's also a former KGB officer Your speculations are interesting. But the above adds nothing. There’s nothing magical about having been in the KGB and one can’t determine one’s aptitude for ‘sneakiness’ from same. It’s just silly. Putin has been in power for 20+ years. There’s no need to draw conclusions about his character from his KGB days when you have such a rich history since then. As an analogy, I remember when folks said Reagan was a great communicator because he had been an actor. Hogwash. He had been a politician far longer than an actor, served as the governor of California, leadership roles in the party and unions, etc. That is, his skill in communication while President was fostered from these experiences and not some ancient movie acting he did.

0x457 4y ago
It's silly. Even if you include training in KGB, he was a politician for longer than the was at KGB. He was president longer than his active KGB career. Plus, his KGB career wasn't all that glorious: counterintelligence here, collecting newspapers there, maybe donated a few guns there.

techdragon 4y ago

I’ve got no proof he did it, but based on his other actions, he’s one of the only people I can believe might do it, for reasons exactly like this. The other candidate in my mind is the USA based on the weirdly vehement comments earlier this year about never letting the Nord Stream 2 happen. It just doesn’t make any sense at all for someone else, it’s either weird, overly convoluted, risky or impossible based on lack of necessary equipment… this isn’t something you can just do a lone wolf terrorist attack against, it’s armoured agains ship anchors, sunk into the seabed, and deep underwater, you can’t just bomb it with some home made depth charges from a fishing boat… which is why this whole thing is so damn weird.

philliphaydon 4y ago

> Putin, knowing that the pipelines are no longer practically useful Didn't he also sign up to build a new pipeline into China? Looks like China stands to win from all this, if Russia can't send the gas anywhere China can dictate the price they will pay.

trasz 4y ago
China is already dictating the price - it’s been like this even before war. Without gas they have no reason to tolerate Putin.
- OrvalWintermute 4y ago
  > Without gas they have no reason to tolerate Putin. Nope. If you think about this on a geopolitical scale, China has every interest in wanting their Northern border with Russia secure, and to advance the Chinese Belt & Road initiative, and collaborate on non-USD currency trading, and other things that make them both sanctions resistant. China also wants Russian Technology where they still hold leadership positions. Most importantly, China wants Taiwan back. The global balance of power may shift in China's favor if the best fabs in the world are suddenly Chinese, and they can sanction the US, limiting their access to chips. These supply chain issues would be a great tool during wartime.
  - nradov 4y ago
    Even if China manages to conquer Taiwan (they don't yet have enough amphibious lift capacity to make it stick), the important fabs are likely to be wrecked. And even if China manages to capture some equipment intact, they won't be able to operate it without support from ASML and other foreign vendors. US politicians have finally woken up to the risk of being dependent on China for strategically important semiconductors, hence the support for measures like the CHIPS Act. The window for China to be able to credibly threaten us with sanctions is rapidly closing. https://usafacts.org/articles/whats-in-the-recently-passed-chips-act/ https://usafacts.org/articles/whats-in-the-recently-passed-c...
  - 4y ago