4 ms·

Those Knowing History May Find It’s Time to Invest

19 points by robg 18y ago

Tichy 18y ago
Hm, the prices might eventually rise again. On the other hand, they might continue to fall even lower. Information gained: zero
jmtame 18y ago
I still don't think I feel comfortable about putting money back into the stock markets. Or even into stock markets altogether. The stock market, at least in its current design, is by nature going to go through bubbles. I'd almost rather take the money and invest it into something I know I have control over, such as a side project or a startup of some sort.
- eru 18y ago
  People are not feeling comfortable with the stock market - it may be a good sign to get back in. (Disclaimer: As a poor student I do not have enough disposable assets, yet, to practise what I preach.)
  - deleted 18y ago
    [deleted]
jasonkolb 18y ago
They may also find themselves poorer in the future, which is an indication that they need to understand more about the present to successfully invest.
smakz 18y ago
I agree, it's a great time to invest, but remember - the market can stay irrational longer then you can stay solvent. It may take 15-30 years for the market to "recover", can you wait it out long enough without being forced to withdraw money from the market at a bad time?
- marvin 18y ago
  That saying was invented to warn people buying on margin. For people who are saving and have a steady income, this kind of solvency is really not an issue.
- kingkongrevenge 18y ago
  So there is a New York Times article saying now might be a buying opportunity, and you readily find posts here in the same vein. This STRONGLY indicates the bottom is a LONG way away. At true secular bottoms nobody mainstream is even asking if the bottom is in; they're too scared off the asset class. Think of the mirror image: the top. In 2000 and 2007 did you repeatedly hear the press and random normal people debate if the top is in and things were set to plunge? No, you didn't. That's just not how mass market psychology works.
  - dmix 18y ago
    I see where your coming from, but this NYTimes article is far from the "mass" opinion of the press or the average stockholder. The simple fact is that people who have enough wealth/capital to take risks during a recession, generally do very well when the economy recovers.
    - kingkongrevenge 18y ago
      > is far from the "mass" opinion of the press or the average stockholder I think it is very much the mass opinion. People are expecting some sort of rebound next year or the year after. Surveys show most home owners continue to think their houses will appreciate substantially over the next three years. The contrarian buy-time is WAY off.
- josefresco 18y ago
  The market does not need to "recover" fully in order for life to return and remain normal for most people. Simply getting back to "where we were" is an arbitrary goal.
fallentimes 18y ago
Whatever you do, just do it slowly and mostly in dividend issuing companies/money market funds/cash generating investments. World diversified dollar cost averaging portfolios are hard to beat.
known 18y ago
aka "be opportunistic"
TweedHeads 18y ago
Not yet, I predict the dow to hit rock bottom around 5k in the next couple of weeks, then rebound. Be alert, then buy.

19 points by robg 18y ago

Tichy 18y ago

Hm, the prices might eventually rise again. On the other hand, they might continue to fall even lower. Information gained: zero

jmtame 18y ago

I still don't think I feel comfortable about putting money back into the stock markets. Or even into stock markets altogether. The stock market, at least in its current design, is by nature going to go through bubbles. I'd almost rather take the money and invest it into something I know I have control over, such as a side project or a startup of some sort.

eru 18y ago
People are not feeling comfortable with the stock market - it may be a good sign to get back in. (Disclaimer: As a poor student I do not have enough disposable assets, yet, to practise what I preach.)
- deleted 18y ago
  [deleted]

jasonkolb 18y ago

They may also find themselves poorer in the future, which is an indication that they need to understand more about the present to successfully invest.

smakz 18y ago

I agree, it's a great time to invest, but remember - the market can stay irrational longer then you can stay solvent. It may take 15-30 years for the market to "recover", can you wait it out long enough without being forced to withdraw money from the market at a bad time?

marvin 18y ago
That saying was invented to warn people buying on margin. For people who are saving and have a steady income, this kind of solvency is really not an issue.
kingkongrevenge 18y ago
So there is a New York Times article saying now might be a buying opportunity, and you readily find posts here in the same vein. This STRONGLY indicates the bottom is a LONG way away. At true secular bottoms nobody mainstream is even asking if the bottom is in; they're too scared off the asset class. Think of the mirror image: the top. In 2000 and 2007 did you repeatedly hear the press and random normal people debate if the top is in and things were set to plunge? No, you didn't. That's just not how mass market psychology works.
- dmix 18y ago
  I see where your coming from, but this NYTimes article is far from the "mass" opinion of the press or the average stockholder. The simple fact is that people who have enough wealth/capital to take risks during a recession, generally do very well when the economy recovers.
  - kingkongrevenge 18y ago
    > is far from the "mass" opinion of the press or the average stockholder I think it is very much the mass opinion. People are expecting some sort of rebound next year or the year after. Surveys show most home owners continue to think their houses will appreciate substantially over the next three years. The contrarian buy-time is WAY off.
josefresco 18y ago
The market does not need to "recover" fully in order for life to return and remain normal for most people. Simply getting back to "where we were" is an arbitrary goal.

fallentimes 18y ago

Whatever you do, just do it slowly and mostly in dividend issuing companies/money market funds/cash generating investments. World diversified dollar cost averaging portfolios are hard to beat.

known 18y ago

aka "be opportunistic"

TweedHeads 18y ago

Not yet, I predict the dow to hit rock bottom around 5k in the next couple of weeks, then rebound. Be alert, then buy.