16 ms·
Who would benefit from this?
by IAmGraydon 4y ago
Who would benefit from this?
- hericium 4y agoSomeone planning to attack someone else.
- tokai 4y agoAnyone that wants to keep Germany off Russian gas no matter the developments.
- jeltz 4y agoBut who is that? Ukraine should be fine with having Germany buy Russian gas since Germany keeps sending arms and push others to send arms. I don't see why the US would care either now that Germany is finally moving away from Russian gas. And Russia can just close the pipeline in a less destructive way.
- aa-jv 4y ago>But who is that? The USA has long wanted to interfere in Germanys' relations with Russia and has done so, over and over, to ensure they are never true allies. So, it wouldn't be unreasonable to assume the US is behind these attacks.
- bdg 4y agoFeb 7, 2022 > Biden: “If Russia invades -- that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine, again, then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2,” > Journalist: “But how will you do that exactly, since the project and control of the project is within Germany’s control?” > Biden: “We will, I promise you, we’ll be able to do it,” Biden replied. I don't want to play conspiracy guy, but the statement stuck in my mind since he said it.
- aa-jv 4y agoIts not a conspiracy - the US has long wanted a reason/justification for turning off Germany's gas. I guess this is happening, now.
- cassianoleal 4y ago> A conspiracy (...) is a secret plan or agreement between persons (called conspirers or conspirators) for an unlawful or harmful purpose, (...) especially with political motivation, while keeping their agreement secret from the public or from other people affected by it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspiracy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspiracy It is a conspiracy.
- aa-jv 4y agoNot a conspiracy: Biden himself stated - quite publically - that they would do it. It has been done. Did you not read the quote? Besides which, the US unilaterally gives itself the right to do these sorts of things at its own discretion on a regular basis.
- CentralHarvest 4y agoIt's certainly a conspiracy in the sense that the USA and its functionaries are not going to be coming out and directly saying "sure, we blew up Nordstream to remove a Russian bargaining chip and prevent Germany from suing for peace."
- cassianoleal 4y agoThey've also not publicised the plan. That stays secret. The plan is the conspiracy.
- notdonspaulding 4y ago> Not a conspiracy: Biden himself stated - quite publically - that they would do it. It has been done. I have no strong opinions yet in the argument over whether or not the USA conspired to sabotage the NS pipelines. I'm just here to point out that secrecy is not a required part of a conspiracy. The literal translation of "conspire" from Latin would be something like "to breathe together", insinuating a synchronization of movements, a plotting together. But, in our world today, all conspiracies (both confirmed and theoretical conspiracies) seem to get bucketed together. And so in common parlance, as soon as a thing is publicly confirmed as actually happening, in most people's minds it moves out of the "Conspiracy" bucket into the "History" bucket. But that's just a loss of language on our part. As always, my go-to resource in recovering the meanings of English words is Webster's 1828. https://webstersdictionary1828.com/Dictionary/conspiracy https://webstersdictionary1828.com/Dictionary/conspiracy
- tokai 4y agoIt can be anyone. Could even be a private person. But yeah its definitely not Russia.
- defrost 4y agoRussia isn't exactly homogenous; satellite states aside even core Muscovite populations are divided in opinion on war and Putin - even if not exactly vocal. This could range from a small group staging a false flag to push Putin further (he is a surprise moderate of the extremely hawkish Russsian elements) to a different small group staging some form of protest by sabotage .. to any other ridiculous scenario imaginable.
- ajsnigrutin 4y agoYep, russia controls "the valve", so it doesn't need to destroy the pipelines, and the minute EU (well, mostly germany) decides to negiotiate, putin can open the valve. With this, even if they negotiate, there won't be any gas soon. So, it's bad for russia, bad for eu, and the only one being better of is USA... who was threathened to do exactly this more than once. https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662 https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662
- 2Gkashmiri 4y agocool. lets see the world now decide how they will play it, i mean here is prior deliberations and intent and we saw today the action itself so if USA is behind this which they most probably are, how will EU for example respond to this aggression? I hope the same response viz a viz sanctions, trade barriers, this and that.????
- IAmGraydon 4y agoIt would be exactly like Russia to do something like this in order to drive a wedge between the US and EU. Look for something Biden said that could be misconstrued as a threat to blow up the pipeline, actually blow it up, and then watch the world blame the US.
- 4y ago
- DocTomoe 4y agoUkraine will be fine, post-war, with Germany buying Russian gas that went through pipelines on Ukrainian soils, because they get paid transit fees. No transit fees necessary for Nord Stream.
- varispeed 4y agoUkraine has undeveloped large gas reserves (mostly at the territory currently occupied by Russia), so they could potentially replace Russia in the future as a supplier.
- jeltz 4y agoI have said this claim many times but it does not match the numbers I have seen on e.g. Wikipedia. Most of the gas seems to be in areas under Ukrainian control.
- LtWorf 4y agoIf they are in russian occupied territory, they can forget about them.
- DocTomoe 4y agoAt risk of being a massively unpopular opinion: Ukraine has a track record of being an unreliable trading entity against other European countries, to the point where it looks like they were actively stealing gas that was sold by Russia to e.g. Germany.[1] Under these circumstances, I'd much rather avoid being dependant on Ukrainian gas and would prefer Russian one every day of the week. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_dis... (definitely worth the read, gives some background information about why we see what we see in this russoukrainian war today)
- Gare 4y agoPoland? They were vocal opposers, and the ruptures are close to their coast.
- weeeeelp 4y agoPoland's got the Formoza unit, such an operation would certainly be within their capabilities. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JW_Formoza https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JW_Formoza Not that I believe that would be orchestrated by the Polish gov.
- bboozzoo 4y agoThis made me chuckle a bit. The polish government can hardly contract appropriate levels coal so that people who burn it to heat their homes have trouble replenishing their supplies before winter. Just yesterday they came up with 50% tax on excessive income for companies which employ 250+ people, so clearly they aren't capable of planning months or years ahead, let it be the effects of such a strike on NS.
- LatteLazy 4y agoThe USA are the obvious answer. They've refused export licenses for gas for years specifically to keep US energy cheap so the US can compete with german industry. China are another answer. If they can't get the gas, there is less incentive for peace so more chance of the conflict rolling on and distracting from their activities. Plus, more gas for them to buy more cheaply etc. Chunks of the middle east as well, they want to replace Russian gas in European markets despite their higher prices. The list really is quite long.
- sudden_dystopia 4y agoChina seems to want this war to end sooner rather than later based on recent comments from their politburo.
- Gare 4y agoI doubt that Chinese submarine could enter Baltic sea without being detected.
- LatteLazy 4y agoIsn't the whole point of subs is that they can go almost anywhere undetected, Chinese or otherwise? Hence all the fuss about Russian subs (possibly) entering Swedish waters over the last few decades, but no one being sure if it happened or whether the sub in question was actually Russian... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_submarine_incidents#After_the_cold_war https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_submarine_incidents#Af... Though I doubt there is any foul play here at all...
- albalus 4y agoNo pun intended but it seems to be a measure to make sure europe doesn't get cold feet politically if their feet get too cold in the winter. Either way it is debilitating to Russia because it impedes their main path to raise revenue to prop up their currency, as the only way to buy gas from russia is rubles. Russia's Ability to transport LNG by ship is abysmal compared to Nord Stream.
- dividedbyzero 4y agoWouldn't Russian gas come with conditions? Like to drastically reduce support for Ukraine? Given time and cold weather, that might not be such a hard sell to the German electorate.
- lm28469 4y ago> I don't see why the US would care either How naive... https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/as-imports-of-us-gas-surge-so-does-concern-over-its-environmental-impact/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/as-imports-of-u...
- rasz 4y agoAnyone buying russian gas is pretty much directly funding putin army. No, Ukraine would not be fine with that. All the Baltic states wouldnt mind killing it too. Poland in particular (NL1 killed "Friendship" pipeline) would be most pleased, except its incapable of such moves due to dysfunctional leadership.
- jcadam 4y agoChina is buying Russian gas and then reselling it to Europe as LNG at a substantial markup.
- RandomLensman 4y agoBarring a change in the political structure in Russia, Germany IS off Russian gas. There are no political alignments that would reverse that given that other options, such as allowing fracking again in Germany, are not even contemplated.
- 988747 4y agoPutin, because he gets an excuse to cut Germany off of Russian gas. It's game of chicken now: the West sends weapons to help Ukrainian army chase off all the Russian invaders, and Putin tries to make energy crisis in EU so severe that Europe is forced to negotiate with him, and accept Russian conquest of parts of the Ukraine. Whoever can stay on their course longer wins.
- jorvi 4y agoPutin already lost that game since he allowed most (all?) EU countries to fill their gas reserves beyond 90%.
- Anon4Now 4y agoFor Germany, that's only a 2-1/2 month supply.
- dewey 4y agoDo you have a recent source for that? The sources that I checked a few days ago all say that there's enough to get through the winter without any bigger changes (except maybe lowering consumption a bit): https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/gas-speicher-101.html https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/gas-speiche...
- jeltz 4y agoMaybe but that assumes zero LNG imports and zero gas from Norway, which will not be the case. According to Germany they have enough gas for the winter.
- mellavora 4y agoThe reserves are a buffer to allow smooth supplies during the increased winter usage. The reserve sizes were set assuming a continued flow of gas. So allowing the reserves to fill to 90% does not lose Putin the game, it gives him increased time to keep the citizens in suspense, thus creating doubt and confusion. And it gives him money. War is expensive.
- jansan 4y agoDirectly alternative suppliers of gas will benefit, because reopening the pipelines is not an option anymore. Indirectly anyone who is interested in causing mistrust among western countries.
- IAmGraydon 4y ago>Indirectly anyone who is interested in causing mistrust among western countries. My gut tells me this is the most likely answer. It would be a very Russian thing to do.
- funnym0nk3y 4y agoYes, it causes mistrust. But the benefit is not big enough. Russia needs insecurity on the one hand, and a possibility to give some kind of security. By blowing up the pipes the limit the movement of the German government.
- drran 4y agoTraders.
- DocTomoe 4y agoThe United States. Poland. Ukraine. Non-Russian gas suppliers. In that order.
- Joeri 4y agoGas prices were dropping, half what they were at the peak. Putin wants gas prices to remain high to punish the EU and increase his own revenues. Since this incident they’re climbing back up. There are other ways for russia to export the gas than nordstream 1. He may think he can force an opening of nordstream 2. Putin has made so many errors in judgment that no strategy is too insane to be considered reasonable in his mind.
- top_sigrid 4y agoBut Northstream 2 ist also damaged which should stand in the way of opening, especially as these events are unlikely to be anything but deliberate.
- q-base 4y agoNordstream 2 is also hit. Otherwise an interesting thought.
- Markoff 4y agoYamal/Brotherhood are fine, so this doesn't really change anything.
- roenxi 4y agoI assume the Russians have some sort of valve on their end of the pipe that they could switch off. That would be cheaper than blowing the pipe up, and also givem more negotiating leverage. It probably wasn't them.
- ajsnigrutin 4y agoYep, and putin has said that he'll close the valve (well, not him personally). EU gets cold, and the only way to heat up is to sit down with putin and make some sort of an agreement. Now, someone destroyed the pipeline, and there's no incentive for EU and putin to make any negotiations, since the pipeline won't be fixed before the winter is over. But the USA will get to sell overpriced gas to EU
- 4y ago
- eunos 4y agoUS since it destroys Putin's leverage against Germany.
- serpix 4y agoplease elaborate further how the US would benefit from destabilizing German gas supplies.
- eunos 4y agoGerman can't make a deal with Putin anymore since the leverage is gone
- jeltz 4y agoBut there have been zero indications that Germany is interested in any such deal. Germany is fine with buying gas from Russia for euros, but they have displayed zero interest in offering anything else in payment. If Germany made such a deal I see mass protests and lets of criticism from the rest of the EU which would lose them tons of political clout within Europe. And for what? I do not think it would be worth it for German politicians.
- sudden_dystopia 4y agoWait until it gets cold and peoples resolves actually get tested. Those protests would turn into people begging to turn the gas on. If you don’t live in a place that actually has winter, you just won’t understand. I lived all summer without a/c, it was fine with the occasional cold shower. But no heat is absolutely miserable and deadly in a real winter.
- serpix 4y agoMost mainland European gas reserves are full, there will be no freezing in Europe this winter.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- throwaway4good 4y agoThe US has the capabilities and an objective interest in destroying Nordstream 2. Both Trump and Biden have made threats and sanctions directed to Germany over the pipeline. However the current German government is highly atlanticist and was nowhere near reopening Nordstream 2. So it would make little sense for such an extreme move.
- soco 4y ago"nowhere near reopening" indeed strong words...
- wobbleblob 4y agoIsn't that obvious? It's to strengthen Germany's resolve. The temptation to surrender and get the gas turned back on is going to be enormous this coming winter. Germany and several other countries have made plans to shut down parts of heavy industry to save gas for heating. This is more than likely to put increasing pressure on governments to give in to Russia's demands. Now they can't, even if they want to, so that pressure is gone.
- RandomLensman 4y agoThere really isn't anywhere close to something like a median voter wanting to get the gas flowing from Russia again in Germany - now or in the winter. A government giving in to the more fringy hard right/hard left asking for that would not survive. The German-Russian relationship has been damaged for decades to come now.
- sprash 4y agoI strongly disagree. People in Germany couldn't care less about Ukraine because it is far away. Most assume that Putin will win this war anyways. However, they care strongly about cheap Gas because it directly influences their lives.
- RandomLensman 4y agoEvidence? I don't see that in any surveys etc. that a majority or even plurality thinks that way.
- fabian2k 4y ago70% of Germans favor continuing support for Ukraine even if that causes high energy prices (https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/politbarometer-union-gruene-ampel-koalition-energiekrise-100.html https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/politbarometer-union-...). This value is practically unchanged for months.
- sprash 4y ago
- dividedbyzero 4y agoEveryone west of Russia and Belarus, including Germany, where political tension to open Nord Stream 2 has been rising, and that's without any psychological games Russia might have played with NS1 in the coming months. This is going to be a big help in keeping Germany politically stable.
- desindol 4y agoThere is nothing rising there was a demonstration of 2000 Pan European(!!) people at the pipeline buildings... we had more crazies out and about demonstrating against a trainstation, public transport and windmills.
- bilekas 4y agoWith my tinfoil hat on, Norway and Poland would! They're already opening a pipeline to Poland. Today I think. Poland becomes the rich middleman now to EU! *Important Note*: I absolutely don't believe this, just an amusing thought.
- jabthedang 4y ago
- lizardactivist 4y agoThe US and its energy dominance agenda -- making more and more of the world dependent on US energy solutions. Did you not read the news in the time leading up to the war in Ukraine? US government and media was complaining more about Nord Stream than they were talking about Ukraine.