4 ms·
With regards to his recent rating increase, Hans' rating increase is not completely unprecedented but it's still very rare. The issue isn't that he's a mid-2600
by eklitzke 4y ago
With regards to his recent rating increase, Hans' rating increase is not completely unprecedented but it's still very rare. The issue isn't that he's a mid-2600s player, or even that he's increased by 200 points in two years, it's the shape of the ratings graph and the unusual staircase progress he's made at the GM level.
It took Hans about five years to go from 2300 to 2500 rating, and most of that was pre-pandemic. Increasing your rating gets exponentially more difficult as your rating increases, which is why there are so few players who ever make it to the 2700 level or even the 2600 level. Most players at this level who spend multiple years in a rating lull never significantly increase their playing ability (there are countless examples, but look at someone like MVL for a typical example). There are only a small number of cases of people who reach Hans' level who have staircase looking ratings progress graphs at the 2500+ level.
Hans' recent rating increase is far from proof that he's cheating, but it is definitely extremely unusual.
- helaoban 4y agoWhat's missing in that analysis is the sheer number of games Niemann has played recently, it's simply an enormous amount of OTB games - outside the norm. Furthermore, there's some consensus that a lot of the younger players are underrated as a result of the pandemic when a lack of rated OTB tournaments prevented a normal rating increase, and Hans' rapid improvement would partially be explained by his official rating quickly equalizing with his actual ability.
- onemoresoop 4y agoI play chess casually and wanted to note that 2600 is pretty darn good. I'll never reach that number but will never stress over it either.