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Ah! It seems your crystal ball is working better than mine. Could you tell me how you know a bigger crash is coming?

debacle 4y ago
The ad-supported giants are barely treading water while they absolutely plaster their platforms with ads. I doubt that will sustain them through the next quarter, which is usually the biggest quarter for retail consumers.
- Ekaros 4y ago
  Also someone has to pay for those adds. Other sectors cutting their advertisement spending will directly hit them. And many are seeing cost pressure already.
anm89 4y ago
This is the least clever take that gets repeated to death by people who are 100% sure they are being very clever. I guess all of those billionaire investors are total idiots thinking about the future without crystal balls. Yes, please give me your misunderstanding of EMH to prove to me I'm wrong. I'll wait.
- kasey_junk 4y ago
  Do you have a particular billionaire investor in mind? Because the most obvious ones (Buffett, Icahn, Soros, Griffin) explicitly use investment strategies that don’t require knowing where the broader markets are going to go. Ray Dalio got famous and rich specifically designing investment strategies because he didn’t believe in a crystal ball. I’m genuinely curious which investors you are talking about where choosing where market indexes will be is their investment thesis.
  - anm89 4y ago
    sure, google "Macro hedge fund"
    - kasey_junk 4y ago
      I’ve worked for a macro hedge fund so I know the space. None of the strategies I saw at my time there had anything to do with accurately predicting specific market levels. Quite the opposite they were largely off market positions for the main component with the occasional hedge on the market.
      - anm89 4y ago
        I never implied that you have to be able to predict and/or time specific market levels either. I'd argue that's moving the goal post from "what's the point of expressing an opinion without a crystal ball" which seems to be the sentiment of your parent post. It's some variation on 1) "there's no alpha over time, only someone with a crystal ball can make money on any directional play besides line go up" to which I'd say a) While most people can't generate alpha over time a, the idea that no one can is empirically wrong. b)if you worked at some bizarro world macro hedge fund where no one has any interest in making educated guesses about market direction and is running some kind of medallion / bridgewater strict beta/correlation strategy (how is that macro? doing that in FX, EM equity or international debt? I wouldn't call a medallion type strategy on EM stocks a global macro strategy ) (also bridgewater clearly incorporates directional opinions based on nuanced understanding of history, geopolitics, cycle timing on top of their core strategies, so I'd say you're wrong in the case of Dalio) 2) misunderstanding or misapplying EMH (which I'm not saying you are but I hear it constantly on here) The market is alway's right, there's no point in having an opinion EMH says you can't be the market. Well scratch below the surface and that's not the conclusion you reach Anyway, that's all to say, I find the "you have no right/validity to talk about where you think markets are heading without a crystal ball" (ie no one should waste time discussing it ever) is not only condescending but as I said, just not correct or clever. I will finally say that of course there are huge numbers of people having very unintelligent conversations where they throw shit at the wall in terms of market predictions, but you can't judge any activity on people doing it badly, even if that's a large percentage of people in this case

The ad-supported giants are barely treading water while they absolutely plaster their platforms with ads. I doubt that will sustain them through the next quarter, which is usually the biggest quarter for retail consumers.

Ekaros 4y ago
Also someone has to pay for those adds. Other sectors cutting their advertisement spending will directly hit them. And many are seeing cost pressure already.

anm89 4y ago

This is the least clever take that gets repeated to death by people who are 100% sure they are being very clever. I guess all of those billionaire investors are total idiots thinking about the future without crystal balls. Yes, please give me your misunderstanding of EMH to prove to me I'm wrong. I'll wait.

kasey_junk 4y ago
Do you have a particular billionaire investor in mind? Because the most obvious ones (Buffett, Icahn, Soros, Griffin) explicitly use investment strategies that don’t require knowing where the broader markets are going to go. Ray Dalio got famous and rich specifically designing investment strategies because he didn’t believe in a crystal ball. I’m genuinely curious which investors you are talking about where choosing where market indexes will be is their investment thesis.
- anm89 4y ago
  sure, google "Macro hedge fund"
  - kasey_junk 4y ago
    I’ve worked for a macro hedge fund so I know the space. None of the strategies I saw at my time there had anything to do with accurately predicting specific market levels. Quite the opposite they were largely off market positions for the main component with the occasional hedge on the market.
    - anm89 4y ago
      I never implied that you have to be able to predict and/or time specific market levels either. I'd argue that's moving the goal post from "what's the point of expressing an opinion without a crystal ball" which seems to be the sentiment of your parent post. It's some variation on 1) "there's no alpha over time, only someone with a crystal ball can make money on any directional play besides line go up" to which I'd say a) While most people can't generate alpha over time a, the idea that no one can is empirically wrong. b)if you worked at some bizarro world macro hedge fund where no one has any interest in making educated guesses about market direction and is running some kind of medallion / bridgewater strict beta/correlation strategy (how is that macro? doing that in FX, EM equity or international debt? I wouldn't call a medallion type strategy on EM stocks a global macro strategy ) (also bridgewater clearly incorporates directional opinions based on nuanced understanding of history, geopolitics, cycle timing on top of their core strategies, so I'd say you're wrong in the case of Dalio) 2) misunderstanding or misapplying EMH (which I'm not saying you are but I hear it constantly on here) The market is alway's right, there's no point in having an opinion EMH says you can't be the market. Well scratch below the surface and that's not the conclusion you reach Anyway, that's all to say, I find the "you have no right/validity to talk about where you think markets are heading without a crystal ball" (ie no one should waste time discussing it ever) is not only condescending but as I said, just not correct or clever. I will finally say that of course there are huge numbers of people having very unintelligent conversations where they throw shit at the wall in terms of market predictions, but you can't judge any activity on people doing it badly, even if that's a large percentage of people in this case