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"Post" crash? If you think what we've seen is the crash you have no idea what's coming.

syntaxing 4y ago
Genuinely curious what you think crash means. 2021 definitely inflated our stock market way too much but we're definitely within reasonable corrected zone IMO. What should we expect as a crash? Even with the Great recession, we're looking at a 27% drawdown so we're about halfway there?
- phpthrowaway99 4y ago
  In the previous crash, even viable companies that were growing and made sense were brought close to crisis. Currently Nikola motors is worth a few billion. In a crash they'd be dead.
  - syntaxing 4y ago
    That just means the market is illogical though, does not mean a crash must mean all of sudden all investors are logical? As quoted by the famous Keynes, “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” It’s like meme stocks like AMC/APE and GME. Does any of it make sense to me? Nope. Are people making and losing a ton of money? Sure. Is it a good indication of US economy health or dare I say, US stock market health? Really hard to say.
    - phpthrowaway99 4y ago
      I guess I would say that a crash is when the market shifts to being illogical towards the negative side, where even seemingly good companies are struggling. I wouldn't call it a crash if there is positive irrationality.
      - enos_feedler 4y ago
        Nobody will want to even mention metaverse if there is a crash
        suoduandao2 4y ago
        Well I'll go on record predicting the opposite. Meta is an advertising behemoth and has taken a very big bet on metaverse, they can ensure unlimited good press for their baby, especially if their real customers aren't buying as many ads as before. I can see it now: "Life sucks because of the crash? Move to the Metaverse!"
        enos_feedler 4y ago
        You are a terrible predictor of futures
  - fullshark 4y ago
    Your attitude isn't unique, I'd describe it as "It's not a crash until the people/companies I consider fraudulent get destroyed." I hear it about some crypto investors in particular. There's a lot of people who basically consider recessions cosmic justice and want a cleansing fire to reign down on certain entities/people they despise. I propose: that's not what a recession/crash is.
    - phpthrowaway99 4y ago
      I would assume in a real crash, especially if we're comparing it to the 2000s tech crash, someone must get destroyed. I personally think companies that can't even make a car drive for a demo, something most at home diy ev hobby builders can do, and also lie about it, probably would go first in a crash. You propose that's not what a crash is. What is it then? And when can we say it's as severe as the early 2000s crash?
      - fullshark 4y ago
        I just think of a crash as a sudden drop in asset values, we've seen that so far. A recession I think of as negative GDP growth for a couple quarters at least (i know i know but this is a reasonable definition and you know it) which we've also seen so far. So this is a crash/recession. It doesn't mean it will necessarily wipe out X. I don't know why it has to be as severe as Dotcom or Housing crashes. Doesn't seem to be a requirement to me. It has been incredibly severe for unprofitable tech companies looking for VC funding to keep them going indefinitely at least.
    - shapefrog 4y ago
      "It's not a crash until the people/companies I consider viable and fundamentally sound get destroyed."
  - lupire 4y ago
    Nikola is 50% down from pre-covid IPO, and -93% from Covid peak.. Even a bad business has assets, and could make some money selling something or getting acquired for basic competencies.
- koolba 4y ago
  Going in the other direction, we’re 11% above the pre-COVID high for the S&P. And that’s with $6+ trillion dollars having been pumped into the economy. There’s plenty of crash and plenty of inflation left in the pipes.
  - syntaxing 4y ago
    Would you consider it a crash if S&P was just flat for a decade?
    - freeqaz 4y ago
      That would be stagflation, I believe. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation
    - anm89 4y ago
      You are misunderstanding "flat for a decade". Flat for a decade is decided in retrospect. It's not flat along the way. Flat for a decade very likely means way down from here right now.
  - lupire 4y ago
    Wouldn't inflation push nominal stock prices up, since there are excess "cheap" dollars to spend?
- MuffinFlavored 4y ago
  i’m seeing 2007 -> 2009 44% drawdown+
- fallingfrog 4y ago
  It's not over till people start giving up and cashing out. Right now, the retail investors are still frantically buying the dip. It's just the smart money that is getting out while the getting is good. Look: right now the S&P500 and the Dow are still twice where they were in 2016, and the Nasdaq is almost 3 times. Even after the recent drop. Do we have double the population we did in 2016? Double the resources? Double the technology? If not then why is the stock market twice as high? My guess is, (and it's only a guess): the nasdaq will bottom out around 5000, the S&P somewhere around 2000. The Dow in the neighborhood of 15k. That's assuming there are no financial collapses like in 2008. But it will take years to get there.
  - Siddarth1977 4y ago
    > Do we have double the population we did in 2016? Double the resources? Double the technology? If not then why is the stock market twice as high? One easy answer is that the "value" of a dollar is half what it recently was. And that seems to hold fairly true whether you want to use that dollar to buy groceries, a house, a hotel room or a share of a company. If I measure my investments not in dollars but in say, days of vacation (so hotel, food, gas/airfare, tickets to things, etc) then my S&P500 investment is about where it was in 2016.
- pdevr 4y ago
  >you have no idea what's coming Taken literally, it is true :) None of us know what is going to happen. Personally, I think it won't be the crash that will hurt more, but the time it will take for recovery. Anyone who has invested money in something, gets impatient with no growth for a long time following a crash that resulted in a loss for them.
- rr888 4y ago
  > Even with the Great recession, we're looking at a 27% drawdown so we're about halfway there? Dotcom crash the Nasdaq dropped 78%. No one really knows what'll happen now though.
edgyquant 4y ago
Bluntly: neither do you and doomerism is unhelpful.
- time_to_smile 4y ago
  > neither do you The put options that I closed out based on my correct prediction that the market would drop literally the day after I posted this would disagree. Additionally since the Fed meeting and the subsequent market drop that general consensus has shifted pretty rapidly towards agreeing more with me than not. I still think the market is even more optimistic than it realizes. It's not doomerism, its reality: we're still in an insane asset bubble that has been propped up by a decade of insanely low interest rates and cheap money. Various conditions around the world are causing rapid inflation which is forcing central banks to raise interest rates ending the era of cheap money. The market sentiment remains convinced that this will a temporary hike, not going much about 4-5% and decreasing rapidly, however there is plenty of economic analysis that indicates this does not make sense.
- doomerism 4y ago
  I'm trying my hardest to be helpful!
- anm89 4y ago
  The goal isn't to be helpful.
anthlax 4y ago
Ah! It seems your crystal ball is working better than mine. Could you tell me how you know a bigger crash is coming?
- debacle 4y ago
  The ad-supported giants are barely treading water while they absolutely plaster their platforms with ads. I doubt that will sustain them through the next quarter, which is usually the biggest quarter for retail consumers.
  - Ekaros 4y ago
    Also someone has to pay for those adds. Other sectors cutting their advertisement spending will directly hit them. And many are seeing cost pressure already.
- anm89 4y ago
  This is the least clever take that gets repeated to death by people who are 100% sure they are being very clever. I guess all of those billionaire investors are total idiots thinking about the future without crystal balls. Yes, please give me your misunderstanding of EMH to prove to me I'm wrong. I'll wait.
  - kasey_junk 4y ago
    Do you have a particular billionaire investor in mind? Because the most obvious ones (Buffett, Icahn, Soros, Griffin) explicitly use investment strategies that don’t require knowing where the broader markets are going to go. Ray Dalio got famous and rich specifically designing investment strategies because he didn’t believe in a crystal ball. I’m genuinely curious which investors you are talking about where choosing where market indexes will be is their investment thesis.
    - anm89 4y ago
      sure, google "Macro hedge fund"
csomar 4y ago
People dreaming on a crash either haven't seen inflation before, or are hoping their US dollars will regain some value. Not happening. The current rate raises are done to control inflation, and not to reverse it. Some prices will stay that high because of inflation. Some prices have already went down but you can't see it: also because of inflation. Sorry, but the Fed had already robbed you, and you are unlikely to get your money back.

Genuinely curious what you think crash means. 2021 definitely inflated our stock market way too much but we're definitely within reasonable corrected zone IMO. What should we expect as a crash? Even with the Great recession, we're looking at a 27% drawdown so we're about halfway there?

phpthrowaway99 4y ago
In the previous crash, even viable companies that were growing and made sense were brought close to crisis. Currently Nikola motors is worth a few billion. In a crash they'd be dead.
- syntaxing 4y ago
  That just means the market is illogical though, does not mean a crash must mean all of sudden all investors are logical? As quoted by the famous Keynes, “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” It’s like meme stocks like AMC/APE and GME. Does any of it make sense to me? Nope. Are people making and losing a ton of money? Sure. Is it a good indication of US economy health or dare I say, US stock market health? Really hard to say.
  - phpthrowaway99 4y ago
    I guess I would say that a crash is when the market shifts to being illogical towards the negative side, where even seemingly good companies are struggling. I wouldn't call it a crash if there is positive irrationality.
    - enos_feedler 4y ago
      Nobody will want to even mention metaverse if there is a crash
      - suoduandao2 4y ago
        Well I'll go on record predicting the opposite. Meta is an advertising behemoth and has taken a very big bet on metaverse, they can ensure unlimited good press for their baby, especially if their real customers aren't buying as many ads as before. I can see it now: "Life sucks because of the crash? Move to the Metaverse!"
        enos_feedler 4y ago
        You are a terrible predictor of futures
- fullshark 4y ago
  Your attitude isn't unique, I'd describe it as "It's not a crash until the people/companies I consider fraudulent get destroyed." I hear it about some crypto investors in particular. There's a lot of people who basically consider recessions cosmic justice and want a cleansing fire to reign down on certain entities/people they despise. I propose: that's not what a recession/crash is.
  - phpthrowaway99 4y ago
    I would assume in a real crash, especially if we're comparing it to the 2000s tech crash, someone must get destroyed. I personally think companies that can't even make a car drive for a demo, something most at home diy ev hobby builders can do, and also lie about it, probably would go first in a crash. You propose that's not what a crash is. What is it then? And when can we say it's as severe as the early 2000s crash?
    - fullshark 4y ago
      I just think of a crash as a sudden drop in asset values, we've seen that so far. A recession I think of as negative GDP growth for a couple quarters at least (i know i know but this is a reasonable definition and you know it) which we've also seen so far. So this is a crash/recession. It doesn't mean it will necessarily wipe out X. I don't know why it has to be as severe as Dotcom or Housing crashes. Doesn't seem to be a requirement to me. It has been incredibly severe for unprofitable tech companies looking for VC funding to keep them going indefinitely at least.
  - shapefrog 4y ago
    "It's not a crash until the people/companies I consider viable and fundamentally sound get destroyed."
- lupire 4y ago
  Nikola is 50% down from pre-covid IPO, and -93% from Covid peak.. Even a bad business has assets, and could make some money selling something or getting acquired for basic competencies.
koolba 4y ago
Going in the other direction, we’re 11% above the pre-COVID high for the S&P. And that’s with $6+ trillion dollars having been pumped into the economy. There’s plenty of crash and plenty of inflation left in the pipes.
- syntaxing 4y ago
  Would you consider it a crash if S&P was just flat for a decade?
  - freeqaz 4y ago
    That would be stagflation, I believe. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation
  - anm89 4y ago
    You are misunderstanding "flat for a decade". Flat for a decade is decided in retrospect. It's not flat along the way. Flat for a decade very likely means way down from here right now.
- lupire 4y ago
  Wouldn't inflation push nominal stock prices up, since there are excess "cheap" dollars to spend?
MuffinFlavored 4y ago
i’m seeing 2007 -> 2009 44% drawdown+
fallingfrog 4y ago
It's not over till people start giving up and cashing out. Right now, the retail investors are still frantically buying the dip. It's just the smart money that is getting out while the getting is good. Look: right now the S&P500 and the Dow are still twice where they were in 2016, and the Nasdaq is almost 3 times. Even after the recent drop. Do we have double the population we did in 2016? Double the resources? Double the technology? If not then why is the stock market twice as high? My guess is, (and it's only a guess): the nasdaq will bottom out around 5000, the S&P somewhere around 2000. The Dow in the neighborhood of 15k. That's assuming there are no financial collapses like in 2008. But it will take years to get there.
- Siddarth1977 4y ago
  > Do we have double the population we did in 2016? Double the resources? Double the technology? If not then why is the stock market twice as high? One easy answer is that the "value" of a dollar is half what it recently was. And that seems to hold fairly true whether you want to use that dollar to buy groceries, a house, a hotel room or a share of a company. If I measure my investments not in dollars but in say, days of vacation (so hotel, food, gas/airfare, tickets to things, etc) then my S&P500 investment is about where it was in 2016.
pdevr 4y ago
>you have no idea what's coming Taken literally, it is true :) None of us know what is going to happen. Personally, I think it won't be the crash that will hurt more, but the time it will take for recovery. Anyone who has invested money in something, gets impatient with no growth for a long time following a crash that resulted in a loss for them.
rr888 4y ago
> Even with the Great recession, we're looking at a 27% drawdown so we're about halfway there? Dotcom crash the Nasdaq dropped 78%. No one really knows what'll happen now though.

edgyquant 4y ago

Bluntly: neither do you and doomerism is unhelpful.

time_to_smile 4y ago
> neither do you The put options that I closed out based on my correct prediction that the market would drop literally the day after I posted this would disagree. Additionally since the Fed meeting and the subsequent market drop that general consensus has shifted pretty rapidly towards agreeing more with me than not. I still think the market is even more optimistic than it realizes. It's not doomerism, its reality: we're still in an insane asset bubble that has been propped up by a decade of insanely low interest rates and cheap money. Various conditions around the world are causing rapid inflation which is forcing central banks to raise interest rates ending the era of cheap money. The market sentiment remains convinced that this will a temporary hike, not going much about 4-5% and decreasing rapidly, however there is plenty of economic analysis that indicates this does not make sense.
doomerism 4y ago
I'm trying my hardest to be helpful!
anm89 4y ago
The goal isn't to be helpful.

anthlax 4y ago

Ah! It seems your crystal ball is working better than mine. Could you tell me how you know a bigger crash is coming?

debacle 4y ago
The ad-supported giants are barely treading water while they absolutely plaster their platforms with ads. I doubt that will sustain them through the next quarter, which is usually the biggest quarter for retail consumers.
- Ekaros 4y ago
  Also someone has to pay for those adds. Other sectors cutting their advertisement spending will directly hit them. And many are seeing cost pressure already.
anm89 4y ago
This is the least clever take that gets repeated to death by people who are 100% sure they are being very clever. I guess all of those billionaire investors are total idiots thinking about the future without crystal balls. Yes, please give me your misunderstanding of EMH to prove to me I'm wrong. I'll wait.
- kasey_junk 4y ago
  Do you have a particular billionaire investor in mind? Because the most obvious ones (Buffett, Icahn, Soros, Griffin) explicitly use investment strategies that don’t require knowing where the broader markets are going to go. Ray Dalio got famous and rich specifically designing investment strategies because he didn’t believe in a crystal ball. I’m genuinely curious which investors you are talking about where choosing where market indexes will be is their investment thesis.
  - anm89 4y ago
    sure, google "Macro hedge fund"

csomar 4y ago

People dreaming on a crash either haven't seen inflation before, or are hoping their US dollars will regain some value. Not happening. The current rate raises are done to control inflation, and not to reverse it. Some prices will stay that high because of inflation. Some prices have already went down but you can't see it: also because of inflation. Sorry, but the Fed had already robbed you, and you are unlikely to get your money back.