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The markets will probably bounce in the next week or two, so there's a trading opportunity, but the historical record says you're a fool if you buy to hold now.
by kingkongrevenge 18y ago
The markets will probably bounce in the next week or two, so there's a trading opportunity, but the historical record says you're a fool if you buy to hold now. Ignoring that stocks probably have more to fall, the behavior of falling markets is that they bottom and then stay at the bottom for a long time. Things trade sideways for a long time before any secular bull kicks off. You do not have to worry about missing the boat.
- nandemo 18y agoYou do have to worry about missing the boat. Historically, there are a few days in the year for which the daily return is huge, say 4 or 5%. You cannot guess in advance. If you miss a couple of very good days, your return might be much lower than the market's.
- kingkongrevenge 18y agoIn a secular bear the annual return is probably negative. By miss the boat, I mean miss the start of a secular bull. We were talking about buy and hold investors.
- sabat 18y agoThat's exactly why you buy to hold, now. It could go lower, but if you're long, you don't really care. You don't know how much longer this will go, and if you miss the boat, you lose. All the more reason to go long.
- alecco 18y agoHow are you so sure it will all come back? So far every week many people say so and then are proven wrong.