4 ms·

He's admitted to cheating in the past. The Bayesian priors for him currently cheating are not the same as for other people.

WastingMyTime89 4y ago
Sorry but that’s garbage. You either have evidence or you don’t. You can’t just say: once guilty always guilty and be fine with that. I find the general holier-than-thou self-righteous attitude expressed by most armchair commenters extremely off putting.
- LightG 4y ago
  I suggest cavity inspections before all matches from now on.
  - moonchrome 4y ago
    The Hansen inspection
- Luc 4y ago
  > holier-than-thou self-righteous attitude That's what I see in your comments, haha. Let the man protest. It appears to be quite effective. There is a long history of positive change coming from quiet, stubborn, non-violent protest outside the rules.
- NotYourLawyer 4y ago
  The fact that he cheated before is evidence. It’s not proof, but it’s absolutely evidence.
- Aeolun 4y ago
  > You can’t just say: once guilty always guilty and be fine with that. You absolutely can. Billions of people do it every single day for less reason. > I find the general holier-than-thou self-righteous attitude expressed by most armchair commenters extremely off putting. I find the crowd chanting evidence, evidence, evidence off putting.
pixelpoet 4y ago
Bayesian priors aren't really known for their rigour.
Beltalowda 4y ago
> He's admitted to cheating in the past. From what I can find: "he did admit that he had cheated in the past – first as a 12-year-old when a friend gave him some help in an online tournament and then as a 16-year-old playing unrated games while he was streaming." A 12-year old cheating in a tournament! We cannot ever trust this man!
- Loughla 4y ago
  For context at high levels of play. Magnus Carlsen started playing at around age 5. Was in his first tournament at 8. Was winning and establishing a career in his teens. Was grand master in his early 20's. So, cheating at 12 and 16 could equate to cheating now. That's only 3 or 7 years ago. Hans is 19.
  - JetSetIlly 4y ago
    Thank-you for pointing this out. The defence that Niemann was "only a minor" when he engaged in his admitted cheating has always sat uncomfortably with me. As you say, Chess is game played at very high standards by children as well as adults. Cheating in that context is highly immoral in my view.
    - Beltalowda 4y ago
      I never said it's not immoral, but we're also talking about what are essentially children, which does not make it permissible, but I don't like judging adults (and 19 is only barely adult) over whatever they did as children/teens. There wouldn't be enough stones to cast if we started doing that.
  - Beltalowda 4y ago
    That doesn't change that a 12-year old is still a 12-year old though, and that a mere "7 years" (12 to 19) is a huge difference in terms of personal development. A 12-year olds brain is still developing. The cheating when he was 16 was unrated, so that's less severe, but the same argument applies here really; how many 100% responsible 16 year olds do you know? Should there be some consequences? Maybe? But people further upthread here are argueing for life-time bans, which seem ridiculously draconic for the actions of a teenager who can't buy alcohol or cigarettes, is below the age of consent for sexual activities, etc. in in many jurisdictions. In my early teens I would shoplift for the fun of it and did some other things I'm not especially proud of today. That's been 30 years ago and I haven't stolen anything in just as many years (since I was 14 or 15). I'm very uncomfortable writing off an entire person over actions they did as a teenager.
sebzim4500 4y ago
Fair enough but those priors should also be updated by a lot of evidence showing that he probably isn't cheating over the board: * His blitz/rapid ratings went up just as much as his classical ratings. Cheating in OTB blitz is much harder, so you would expect his blitz rating to stay roughly the same if his recent rise was due to cheating. * Ken Regan is generally the most trusted authority of cheating detection (you can find his papers online, his methodology is rigorous), and he says there is no evidence of Hans cheating OTB. * AFAIK no strong player has described the game between Hans and Carlsen as suspicious. Even the (increasingly rare) ones that are fully on Magnus' side.

WastingMyTime89 4y ago

Sorry but that’s garbage. You either have evidence or you don’t. You can’t just say: once guilty always guilty and be fine with that. I find the general holier-than-thou self-righteous attitude expressed by most armchair commenters extremely off putting.

LightG 4y ago
I suggest cavity inspections before all matches from now on.
- moonchrome 4y ago
  The Hansen inspection
Luc 4y ago
> holier-than-thou self-righteous attitude That's what I see in your comments, haha. Let the man protest. It appears to be quite effective. There is a long history of positive change coming from quiet, stubborn, non-violent protest outside the rules.
NotYourLawyer 4y ago
The fact that he cheated before is evidence. It’s not proof, but it’s absolutely evidence.
Aeolun 4y ago
> You can’t just say: once guilty always guilty and be fine with that. You absolutely can. Billions of people do it every single day for less reason. > I find the general holier-than-thou self-righteous attitude expressed by most armchair commenters extremely off putting. I find the crowd chanting evidence, evidence, evidence off putting.

pixelpoet 4y ago

Bayesian priors aren't really known for their rigour.

Beltalowda 4y ago

> He's admitted to cheating in the past. From what I can find: "he did admit that he had cheated in the past – first as a 12-year-old when a friend gave him some help in an online tournament and then as a 16-year-old playing unrated games while he was streaming." A 12-year old cheating in a tournament! We cannot ever trust this man!

Loughla 4y ago
For context at high levels of play. Magnus Carlsen started playing at around age 5. Was in his first tournament at 8. Was winning and establishing a career in his teens. Was grand master in his early 20's. So, cheating at 12 and 16 could equate to cheating now. That's only 3 or 7 years ago. Hans is 19.
- JetSetIlly 4y ago
  Thank-you for pointing this out. The defence that Niemann was "only a minor" when he engaged in his admitted cheating has always sat uncomfortably with me. As you say, Chess is game played at very high standards by children as well as adults. Cheating in that context is highly immoral in my view.
  - Beltalowda 4y ago
    I never said it's not immoral, but we're also talking about what are essentially children, which does not make it permissible, but I don't like judging adults (and 19 is only barely adult) over whatever they did as children/teens. There wouldn't be enough stones to cast if we started doing that.
- Beltalowda 4y ago
  That doesn't change that a 12-year old is still a 12-year old though, and that a mere "7 years" (12 to 19) is a huge difference in terms of personal development. A 12-year olds brain is still developing. The cheating when he was 16 was unrated, so that's less severe, but the same argument applies here really; how many 100% responsible 16 year olds do you know? Should there be some consequences? Maybe? But people further upthread here are argueing for life-time bans, which seem ridiculously draconic for the actions of a teenager who can't buy alcohol or cigarettes, is below the age of consent for sexual activities, etc. in in many jurisdictions. In my early teens I would shoplift for the fun of it and did some other things I'm not especially proud of today. That's been 30 years ago and I haven't stolen anything in just as many years (since I was 14 or 15). I'm very uncomfortable writing off an entire person over actions they did as a teenager.

sebzim4500 4y ago

Fair enough but those priors should also be updated by a lot of evidence showing that he probably isn't cheating over the board: * His blitz/rapid ratings went up just as much as his classical ratings. Cheating in OTB blitz is much harder, so you would expect his blitz rating to stay roughly the same if his recent rise was due to cheating. * Ken Regan is generally the most trusted authority of cheating detection (you can find his papers online, his methodology is rigorous), and he says there is no evidence of Hans cheating OTB. * AFAIK no strong player has described the game between Hans and Carlsen as suspicious. Even the (increasingly rare) ones that are fully on Magnus' side.