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What happens if Apple decides to or is forced to stop accepting a reported $18 billion a year to be the default search engine on iOS devices? Google will lose i

What happens if Apple decides to or is forced to stop accepting a reported $18 billion a year to be the default search engine on iOS devices? Google will lose its most valuable customers. Microsoft Office adoption in the enterprise dwarfs GSuite.

screye 4y ago
Oh yeah, that's exactly my point. IMO, The vulnerability from most vulnerable to least goes: Facebook > Google >> Apple ~> Microsoft = Amazon
- winnie_ua 4y ago
  Interesting observation. Need to reflect on this. What else busdines does Meta have beyond FB, Instagram, Whatsapp? I guess they are somehow wurnelable to search market problems(including regulations), but that won't make them collapse, just less wealthy. And they can start monetizing WA and Insta more agresively. Perhaps your concerns are one of reasons why they are investing so much in metaverse. Google on other hand has bigger hold. They have Hosting business(which is not profitable currently, if that is truth), and YouTube. If something happens with search business, YouTube would feed Alphabet. Also money from play store and licensing fees from android vendors. I bet, Google's investment in Android was great move. It makes them more secure than Facebook.
  - scarface74 4y ago
    Android makes very little money for Google. It came out in the Oracle lawsuit that Google had only made $27 billion in profit from Android from its inception through the trial. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oracle-google-lawsuit-idUSKCN0UZ2W9 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oracle-google-lawsuit-idU... Android was already dominant as far as market share. Also Google is non existent in the worlds largest mobile market - China. That’s Apple’s biggest market. Apple has to be making more from Google on mobile from the money that Google pays Apple to be the default search engine (a reported $18 billion) a year than Google makes from Android.
- winnie_ua 4y ago
  About Apple. I guess most insecurity is from possibility of war in Taiwan. Inability to produce iPhones would struck hard. But beyond that, they have most loyal customers, who doesn't care abou their freedom to own device.
  - scarface74 4y ago
    If war comes in Taiwan, everyone is screwed. Google depends on servers and components made in Taiwan. Amazon and Microsoft also depend on servers.
    - winnie_ua 4y ago
      Sadly, but yes. Just thinking, who would be screwed more... hm.
winnie_ua 4y ago
I bet it won't happen, and if happen it won't affect G a lot, at this point. 1. Who else can Apple put as default search engine? -- Bing? But Microsoft is Apples direct competitor on laptop and desktop market. Who knows what Bing would show users? And other competitors in search market are extinct. Yahoo, AOL, etc. Duck is using BING's api. There are local market search engines (like Yandex in russia), but they already are default search engines on mobile in that markets(at least on lot of android devices, don't know about iOS). At most Apple would offer user to chose search engine on first set-up, and guess what users would chose? So we slowly are moving to second point. I don't thing Google needs to pay for this, they just are doing this by inertia. Most competitors are extinct. And people know by word of mouth, that google "is the best search engine". About Firefox it might be tricky. People who decided to try firefox can be more interested in trying another search engine as well, so here their payment for default SE makes some sense.
- scarface74 4y ago
  Google is also a competitor in mobile which is a much bigger deal. Apple and Microsoft have been competitors and at the same time worked together since Microsoft wrote AppleSoft Basic in 1980. Microsoft was on stage with Jobs at the introduction of the Mac in 1984 and has consistently developed Office for the Mac since 1986 through all of the Macs transitions. If Google didn’t need to pay, why are they paying $18 Billion a year? I added the part “are forced to” because as much as I rail against the government getting involved in the free market when it comes to tech, it even makes me feel uneasy that the two major mobile platforms are unabashedly colluding and one is outright paying the other to funnel customers.
  - winnie_ua 4y ago
    I don't think Android is a competitor to iOS. Most iOS users fanatically don't want other mobile OS. Don't think Ads can change this :D Not sure about PC, but I bet availability of more apps and games can tip the scales. I consider MS more competition than Android. But that's just my perspective. > it even makes me feel uneasy that the two major mobile platforms are unabashedly colluding and one is outright paying the other to funnel customers. Indeed sounds creepy. P.S. As other commenters mentioned -- there is Brave search, about which I was not aware, that it has their own Crawler. Apple could potentially switch to it(or buy it).

screye 4y ago

Oh yeah, that's exactly my point. IMO, The vulnerability from most vulnerable to least goes: Facebook > Google >> Apple ~> Microsoft = Amazon

winnie_ua 4y ago
Interesting observation. Need to reflect on this. What else busdines does Meta have beyond FB, Instagram, Whatsapp? I guess they are somehow wurnelable to search market problems(including regulations), but that won't make them collapse, just less wealthy. And they can start monetizing WA and Insta more agresively. Perhaps your concerns are one of reasons why they are investing so much in metaverse. Google on other hand has bigger hold. They have Hosting business(which is not profitable currently, if that is truth), and YouTube. If something happens with search business, YouTube would feed Alphabet. Also money from play store and licensing fees from android vendors. I bet, Google's investment in Android was great move. It makes them more secure than Facebook.
- scarface74 4y ago
  Android makes very little money for Google. It came out in the Oracle lawsuit that Google had only made $27 billion in profit from Android from its inception through the trial. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oracle-google-lawsuit-idUSKCN0UZ2W9 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oracle-google-lawsuit-idU... Android was already dominant as far as market share. Also Google is non existent in the worlds largest mobile market - China. That’s Apple’s biggest market. Apple has to be making more from Google on mobile from the money that Google pays Apple to be the default search engine (a reported $18 billion) a year than Google makes from Android.
winnie_ua 4y ago
About Apple. I guess most insecurity is from possibility of war in Taiwan. Inability to produce iPhones would struck hard. But beyond that, they have most loyal customers, who doesn't care abou their freedom to own device.
- scarface74 4y ago
  If war comes in Taiwan, everyone is screwed. Google depends on servers and components made in Taiwan. Amazon and Microsoft also depend on servers.
  - winnie_ua 4y ago
    Sadly, but yes. Just thinking, who would be screwed more... hm.

winnie_ua 4y ago

I bet it won't happen, and if happen it won't affect G a lot, at this point. 1. Who else can Apple put as default search engine? -- Bing? But Microsoft is Apples direct competitor on laptop and desktop market. Who knows what Bing would show users? And other competitors in search market are extinct. Yahoo, AOL, etc. Duck is using BING's api. There are local market search engines (like Yandex in russia), but they already are default search engines on mobile in that markets(at least on lot of android devices, don't know about iOS). At most Apple would offer user to chose search engine on first set-up, and guess what users would chose? So we slowly are moving to second point. I don't thing Google needs to pay for this, they just are doing this by inertia. Most competitors are extinct. And people know by word of mouth, that google "is the best search engine". About Firefox it might be tricky. People who decided to try firefox can be more interested in trying another search engine as well, so here their payment for default SE makes some sense.

scarface74 4y ago
Google is also a competitor in mobile which is a much bigger deal. Apple and Microsoft have been competitors and at the same time worked together since Microsoft wrote AppleSoft Basic in 1980. Microsoft was on stage with Jobs at the introduction of the Mac in 1984 and has consistently developed Office for the Mac since 1986 through all of the Macs transitions. If Google didn’t need to pay, why are they paying $18 Billion a year? I added the part “are forced to” because as much as I rail against the government getting involved in the free market when it comes to tech, it even makes me feel uneasy that the two major mobile platforms are unabashedly colluding and one is outright paying the other to funnel customers.
- winnie_ua 4y ago
  I don't think Android is a competitor to iOS. Most iOS users fanatically don't want other mobile OS. Don't think Ads can change this :D Not sure about PC, but I bet availability of more apps and games can tip the scales. I consider MS more competition than Android. But that's just my perspective. > it even makes me feel uneasy that the two major mobile platforms are unabashedly colluding and one is outright paying the other to funnel customers. Indeed sounds creepy. P.S. As other commenters mentioned -- there is Brave search, about which I was not aware, that it has their own Crawler. Apple could potentially switch to it(or buy it).