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That would be a a very big surprise. But I could say "don't assume that today is the last day of this extremely hot weather, it might go on until tomorrow or ev
by Arnt 4y ago
That would be a a very big surprise. But I could say "don't assume that today is the last day of this extremely hot weather, it might go on until tomorrow or even longer" and that would be much less remarkable. You don't know the end of an ongoing event until it's past.
- refurb 4y agoI mean, a 4 or 5 year La Nina would also be a very big surprise.
- shawabawa3 4y ago4 year la Nina is a big surprise, but a 4 year la Nina given we've had 3 years already is a much smaller surprise
- refurb 4y agoThat’s not how probabilities work. If I flip a coin and get heads 3 times in a row it doesn’t change the odds on the 4th flip.
- Arnt 4y agoIt is how probabilities work. A plain example: The odds of flipping ten heads in a row are 1/1024, but if you've already flipped nine heads, the odds of flipping ten heads are 1/2.
- refurb 4y agoCan you please tell me in detail how you're not agreeing with what I said? I said the exact same thing. "If I flip a coin and get heads 3 times in a row it doesn’t change the odds on the 4th flip."
- Arnt 4y agoIt's not the odds of the fourth flip, it's the difference between four flips and a fourth flip. Look upstream, you'll find someone (you perhaps? I don't care who) who doesn't realise whether the current La Niña situation is equivalent to a fourth-flip or a four-flips situation. A common problem in statistics, in my experience: People sort of understand two statistical statements, but then apply the wrong one to the real-world situation they're in.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]