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I find it difficult to believe that these guys didn't see this coming at least a year ago; their own data from a year ago certainly points in that direction. So

I find it difficult to believe that these guys didn't see this coming at least a year ago; their own data from a year ago certainly points in that direction. So, why are they presenting the doom deck now? The VCs I have met were talking about a serious downturn over 16 months ago and I've known for at least 4 years that the real estate bubble was going to cause a lot of problems. I think lots of people saw this coming. So, why did we have to get to this point before getting such sober advice? Seems odd to me.

alexandros 18y ago
have you read the black swan? graphs can be made to explain everything. after the fact.
- alecco 18y ago
  You don't need to read Taleb to know that. "Lies, damn lies, and statistics" :) About Taleb, "when all you know is the hammer..." He is no renowned economist. MBA and Phd. in management. Oh, and he teaches risk. Try Roubini, it's even more dramatic.
Retric 18y ago
There is an old quote that the market can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent. I keep hearing "Doom" but for the most part the stock market seems to be at a fairly rational level right now. Most stable companies P/E is back around 10, and companies in unstable market's or those that lack real profits are taking a beating. As an example the P/E on DryShip's is has a P/E of 1 right now but it's a risky market and it's unlikely they will be anywhere near as profitable this year as last year. It's still I reasonable long term buy but who knows. On the other hand Pepsi and IBM are both extremely stable both on the business side and in their stock price.
josefresco 18y ago
Monday morning quarterback always knows what's best. They simply did not know (no matter what they say now) and were too busy cashing out at the height of the boom. Now, they want to buy up assets and it benefits them to push valuations lower.
sethg 18y ago
The VC fundraising cycle has something to do with this, right? I mean, if I understand correctly, if you dropped a few million bucks into a VC fund back in 2005 to become a limited partner, that money is locked up until 2010 or so; if you notice storm clouds on the horizon in 2006, you can't just cash out. At that point the VCs just have to do the best that they can with the portfolio they have, and you have to trust that the VCs will do their job competently.
kingkongrevenge 18y ago
> why did we have to get to this point before getting such sober advice? My guess is they feel it necessary to smack some sense into relentless optimists they've funded. Remember, If you made similar points two years ago you were ridiculed to hell or laughed at ... by the relentless optimists. I remember posting some good analysis of the housing market a couple years ago and seeing it down-modded to oblivion. It was only after the bubble burst that the very same links were front page all over the place.
- fallentimes 18y ago
  I wish ycsearch.com still worked so I could look them up. It's hilarious reading old dot com bust stock recommendations. Pretty much all the people I knew in finance saw this coming. Our first hint was when people making less than 50k per year were buying 400k houses with no money down. "It's different this time" Tulip Bulbs take 10.
  - pmjordan 18y ago
    I don't know about ycsearch, but http://searchyc.com/ http://searchyc.com/ certainly works.
    - fallentimes 18y ago
      I'm retarded - thank you.

alexandros 18y ago

have you read the black swan? graphs can be made to explain everything. after the fact.

alecco 18y ago
You don't need to read Taleb to know that. "Lies, damn lies, and statistics" :) About Taleb, "when all you know is the hammer..." He is no renowned economist. MBA and Phd. in management. Oh, and he teaches risk. Try Roubini, it's even more dramatic.

Retric 18y ago

There is an old quote that the market can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent. I keep hearing "Doom" but for the most part the stock market seems to be at a fairly rational level right now. Most stable companies P/E is back around 10, and companies in unstable market's or those that lack real profits are taking a beating. As an example the P/E on DryShip's is has a P/E of 1 right now but it's a risky market and it's unlikely they will be anywhere near as profitable this year as last year. It's still I reasonable long term buy but who knows. On the other hand Pepsi and IBM are both extremely stable both on the business side and in their stock price.

josefresco 18y ago

Monday morning quarterback always knows what's best. They simply did not know (no matter what they say now) and were too busy cashing out at the height of the boom. Now, they want to buy up assets and it benefits them to push valuations lower.

sethg 18y ago

The VC fundraising cycle has something to do with this, right? I mean, if I understand correctly, if you dropped a few million bucks into a VC fund back in 2005 to become a limited partner, that money is locked up until 2010 or so; if you notice storm clouds on the horizon in 2006, you can't just cash out. At that point the VCs just have to do the best that they can with the portfolio they have, and you have to trust that the VCs will do their job competently.

kingkongrevenge 18y ago

> why did we have to get to this point before getting such sober advice? My guess is they feel it necessary to smack some sense into relentless optimists they've funded. Remember, If you made similar points two years ago you were ridiculed to hell or laughed at ... by the relentless optimists. I remember posting some good analysis of the housing market a couple years ago and seeing it down-modded to oblivion. It was only after the bubble burst that the very same links were front page all over the place.

fallentimes 18y ago
I wish ycsearch.com still worked so I could look them up. It's hilarious reading old dot com bust stock recommendations. Pretty much all the people I knew in finance saw this coming. Our first hint was when people making less than 50k per year were buying 400k houses with no money down. "It's different this time" Tulip Bulbs take 10.
- pmjordan 18y ago
  I don't know about ycsearch, but http://searchyc.com/ http://searchyc.com/ certainly works.
  - fallentimes 18y ago
    I'm retarded - thank you.