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Have you seen the dollar’s buying power recently? I went from living very comfortably to living paycheck-to-paycheck in about 6 months. Holding my value in USD

by donatj 4y ago

Have you seen the dollar’s buying power recently? I went from living very comfortably to living paycheck-to-paycheck in about 6 months. Holding my value in USD has become a significant risk.

jallen_dot_dev 4y ago
> Have you seen the dollar’s buying power recently? Yeah, it's been going up relative to almost all other currencies and especially BTC.
ceejayoz 4y ago
Now imagine you had half as much USD for your groceries, because you decided to put it in BTC a year ago instead.
- donatj 4y ago
  Quite literally what happened. My groceries cost over twice as much.
  - benj111 4y ago
    It isn't literally what happened because that would be equivalent to your groceries costing 4 times as much.
  - Zanfa 4y ago
    Ignoring the fact that you’re implying a 100% USD inflation over the past year, you’d only have 25% of the purchasing power if you “invested” in BTC per the GPs example.
    - sp332 4y ago
      "Inflation" is an average of several things. Actual inflation doesn't have to be even across all items. Groceries went up more than other things. Edit: some examples https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings/ https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/su... Retail egg prices went up 38% from July 2021 to July 2022.
      - the_gastropod 4y ago
        Yes. And eggs are the highest increase on that list, at 38%—still a far cry from 100%. Comparatively, fresh fruits are down 0.8%, and fresh veggies up only 0.8%.
  - UncleMeat 4y ago
    I cannot think of a single individual item that I buy at the grocery store that has doubled, let alone more than doubled.
    - donatj 4y ago
      Cereal and butter. A box of cereal is $7+ now, whereas it was $4 not long ago. A pack of butter was $2.50 and now close to $5.
      - Bud 4y ago
        Butter actually wasn't $2.50 at any point in the recent past. This is easy to track. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000FS1101 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000FS1101 So of the two items you cherry-picked to support an assertion that groceries have more than doubled, one is up...around 30-35%. In fact, there doesn't appear to be a single food item in this list that has doubled in the past year. Eggs are the closest. https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/averageretailfoodandenergyprices_usandwest_table.htm https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/averageretailf...
        Supermancho 4y ago
        Well butter prices have gone up almost 100% - https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/dywabutter_cme.pdf https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/dywabutter_cme.pdf https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/butter/ https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/butter/ But that's not the whole story. Prices are not primarily set by wholesale costs for many goods. I think cereal has only gone up 30%, although there have been other events that influenced Kellogs pricing (notice how the Poptarts boxes have changed slightly) and then there has been the opportunity to steal away some extra profit - https://www.wxyz.com/news/now-cereal-prices-are-on-the-rise-and-experts-say-inflation-will-stick-around https://www.wxyz.com/news/now-cereal-prices-are-on-the-rise-... (search for "Mills").
      - mrguyorama 4y ago
        Meanwhile pork and chicken are roughly the same as they've always been where I am, at least ignoring sale pricing. Hell, I got 3.5 pounds of steak tips for $20 about a month ago. My food costs have absolutely gone up, but it's MUCH closer to the "10 percent" figures quoted as inflation than anything close to what you have said. Where do you live and shop?
pjc50 4y ago
People are unable to distinguish "prices have gone up from money printing" from "prices have gone up due to the pandemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine". Neither bitcoin nor gold can hedge against the latter.
- psychlops 4y ago
  I guess you'll have to put me in the camp of unable to distinguish. There is always an "emergency" reason to print money.
- pookha 4y ago
  Prices have gone up because we have demand side inflation: https://www.mercatus.org/publications/inflation/inflation-largely-demand-side-problem-0 https://www.mercatus.org/publications/inflation/inflation-la... Which is mostly driven by putting trillions of dollars into the economy. The Fed had 1 trillion on it's books during the 07 recession. It has 8 trillion on it's books now. That's a major problem.
pessimizer 4y ago
If 8% inflation has put you paycheck to paycheck, living "very comfortably" was already living far beyond your means.
- donatj 4y ago
  The 8% figure doesn’t match real life. My electric bill doubled, my natural gas bill doubled, my municipal bill doubled, my groceries doubled.Everything that makes up the vast majority of my expenditures had doubled.
  - pessimizer 4y ago
    You could be the guy where it's only raining above his house, but the people you are having this conversation with also live in the world and disagree with your figures as much as the statistics do.
    - splitstud 4y ago
dragontamer 4y ago
> Have you seen the dollar’s buying power recently? Yeah, its up like 100% over Bitcoin and like +30% over Euro, Yen, and GBP? In fact, holding Cash/USD has been basically one of the best performing things in my entire portfolio this year (after oil/energy) Have _you_ seen BTC's buying power recently?
- donatj 4y ago
  USD is not up. Everything is down. Have you been to a store recently?
  - dragontamer 4y ago
    USD is hugely up vs Yen and Euro. You buy anything from overseas recently? USD is hugely strong. USD is up vs the stock market, vs the bond market, vs the overseas bond market, vs overseas stocks. USD is also up vs Bitcoin. EDIT: Feel free to look at gold, silver, and other 'inflation hedges' while you're at it. The main thing going up is commodities (oil and food), which is certainly important. But there's more to the world than those two things.
    - nightski 4y ago
      Inflation is basically the exact definition of the change in USD's value relative to goods & services. Unless you are arguing we currently don't have any inflation, which would be a tough sell :) Also this last CPI report oil & gas pulled inflation down whereas just about everything else pulled it up. Food is hot, but a lot of other things are as well including non-commodity service based industries.
      - dragontamer 4y ago
        > In fact, holding Cash/USD has been basically one of the best performing things in my entire portfolio this year (after oil/energy) This is what I'm arguing. Do you deny it? ------ In a bear market, you don't have to outrun the bear to get ahead. You only have to outrun your friends.

by donatj 4y ago

Have you seen the dollar’s buying power recently? I went from living very comfortably to living paycheck-to-paycheck in about 6 months. Holding my value in USD has become a significant risk.

jallen_dot_dev 4y ago

> Have you seen the dollar’s buying power recently? Yeah, it's been going up relative to almost all other currencies and especially BTC.

ceejayoz 4y ago

Now imagine you had half as much USD for your groceries, because you decided to put it in BTC a year ago instead.

donatj 4y ago
Quite literally what happened. My groceries cost over twice as much.
- benj111 4y ago
  It isn't literally what happened because that would be equivalent to your groceries costing 4 times as much.
- Zanfa 4y ago
  Ignoring the fact that you’re implying a 100% USD inflation over the past year, you’d only have 25% of the purchasing power if you “invested” in BTC per the GPs example.
  - sp332 4y ago
    "Inflation" is an average of several things. Actual inflation doesn't have to be even across all items. Groceries went up more than other things. Edit: some examples https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings/ https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/su... Retail egg prices went up 38% from July 2021 to July 2022.
    - the_gastropod 4y ago
      Yes. And eggs are the highest increase on that list, at 38%—still a far cry from 100%. Comparatively, fresh fruits are down 0.8%, and fresh veggies up only 0.8%.
- UncleMeat 4y ago
  I cannot think of a single individual item that I buy at the grocery store that has doubled, let alone more than doubled.
  - donatj 4y ago
    Cereal and butter. A box of cereal is $7+ now, whereas it was $4 not long ago. A pack of butter was $2.50 and now close to $5.
    - Bud 4y ago
      Butter actually wasn't $2.50 at any point in the recent past. This is easy to track. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000FS1101 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000FS1101 So of the two items you cherry-picked to support an assertion that groceries have more than doubled, one is up...around 30-35%. In fact, there doesn't appear to be a single food item in this list that has doubled in the past year. Eggs are the closest. https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/averageretailfoodandenergyprices_usandwest_table.htm https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/averageretailf...
      - Supermancho 4y ago
        Well butter prices have gone up almost 100% - https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/dywabutter_cme.pdf https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/dywabutter_cme.pdf https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/butter/ https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/butter/ But that's not the whole story. Prices are not primarily set by wholesale costs for many goods. I think cereal has only gone up 30%, although there have been other events that influenced Kellogs pricing (notice how the Poptarts boxes have changed slightly) and then there has been the opportunity to steal away some extra profit - https://www.wxyz.com/news/now-cereal-prices-are-on-the-rise-and-experts-say-inflation-will-stick-around https://www.wxyz.com/news/now-cereal-prices-are-on-the-rise-... (search for "Mills").
    - mrguyorama 4y ago
      Meanwhile pork and chicken are roughly the same as they've always been where I am, at least ignoring sale pricing. Hell, I got 3.5 pounds of steak tips for $20 about a month ago. My food costs have absolutely gone up, but it's MUCH closer to the "10 percent" figures quoted as inflation than anything close to what you have said. Where do you live and shop?

pjc50 4y ago

People are unable to distinguish "prices have gone up from money printing" from "prices have gone up due to the pandemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine". Neither bitcoin nor gold can hedge against the latter.

psychlops 4y ago
I guess you'll have to put me in the camp of unable to distinguish. There is always an "emergency" reason to print money.
pookha 4y ago
Prices have gone up because we have demand side inflation: https://www.mercatus.org/publications/inflation/inflation-largely-demand-side-problem-0 https://www.mercatus.org/publications/inflation/inflation-la... Which is mostly driven by putting trillions of dollars into the economy. The Fed had 1 trillion on it's books during the 07 recession. It has 8 trillion on it's books now. That's a major problem.

pessimizer 4y ago

If 8% inflation has put you paycheck to paycheck, living "very comfortably" was already living far beyond your means.

donatj 4y ago
The 8% figure doesn’t match real life. My electric bill doubled, my natural gas bill doubled, my municipal bill doubled, my groceries doubled.Everything that makes up the vast majority of my expenditures had doubled.
- pessimizer 4y ago
  You could be the guy where it's only raining above his house, but the people you are having this conversation with also live in the world and disagree with your figures as much as the statistics do.
  - splitstud 4y ago

dragontamer 4y ago

> Have you seen the dollar’s buying power recently? Yeah, its up like 100% over Bitcoin and like +30% over Euro, Yen, and GBP? In fact, holding Cash/USD has been basically one of the best performing things in my entire portfolio this year (after oil/energy) Have _you_ seen BTC's buying power recently?

donatj 4y ago
USD is not up. Everything is down. Have you been to a store recently?
- dragontamer 4y ago
  USD is hugely up vs Yen and Euro. You buy anything from overseas recently? USD is hugely strong. USD is up vs the stock market, vs the bond market, vs the overseas bond market, vs overseas stocks. USD is also up vs Bitcoin. EDIT: Feel free to look at gold, silver, and other 'inflation hedges' while you're at it. The main thing going up is commodities (oil and food), which is certainly important. But there's more to the world than those two things.
  - nightski 4y ago
    Inflation is basically the exact definition of the change in USD's value relative to goods & services. Unless you are arguing we currently don't have any inflation, which would be a tough sell :) Also this last CPI report oil & gas pulled inflation down whereas just about everything else pulled it up. Food is hot, but a lot of other things are as well including non-commodity service based industries.
    - dragontamer 4y ago
      > In fact, holding Cash/USD has been basically one of the best performing things in my entire portfolio this year (after oil/energy) This is what I'm arguing. Do you deny it? ------ In a bear market, you don't have to outrun the bear to get ahead. You only have to outrun your friends.