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Yesterday's headline: "Russia’s budget surplus evaporates as energy revenues shrink" https://www.ft.com/content/d9cdc51f-5fe3-4f4a-b0e8-054ef21a2a6e https://w

Yesterday's headline: "Russia’s budget surplus evaporates as energy revenues shrink" https://www.ft.com/content/d9cdc51f-5fe3-4f4a-b0e8-054ef21a2a6e https://www.ft.com/content/d9cdc51f-5fe3-4f4a-b0e8-054ef21a2... > Russia’s budget surplus for 2022 has almost evaporated after a sharp drop in energy exports during August led to a monthly deficit of as much as Rbs360bn ($5.9bn). Russia is increasingly cutting itself now too: > Revenues look set to worsen following Russia’s suspension of Nord Stream 1, one of its main gas pipelines to Europe, in early September. > Russia’s economy shrunk 4.3 per cent in July 2022 compared with the same month a year earlier, according to the country’s economy ministry. Analysts at Aton, a Russian brokerage, expect the economy to contract by a further 5 per cent in 2023 because of falling energy output.

adventured 4y ago
Even more important than the economic shrinkage, is the destruction of Russian industry (including military industry) through deprivation of technology access. This is also ignored by the parent comment. Russia can't rebuild or restock their military without the required external tech (much of which has been shown to depend on the US semiconductor industry). All of Russia's more modern military hardware requires foreign semiconductors, they're wildly incompetent in nearly all aspects domestically on advanced tech hardware. The sanctions are draining their military capabilities, in the present and for the next decade or so. Russia is trending toward empty when it comes to their military inventory and they won't be able to replenish it as things stand. The only way they can is if China steps in and provides an epic scale infusion (which is not in China's interest). Meanwhile the US can rev its military industrial complex to an extreme degree as it sees fit; and in tandem with Ukraine, obliterate Russia's military to the extent the Russians are dumb enough to continue occupying Ukrainian territory and sending more of their soldiers and hardware to the slaughter. The US hasn't even begun to seriously rev its production capabilities. The equation there is Russia is fucked. Their national strength derives from energy + military power / power perception - one of those is heavily destroyed (courtesy of Ukraine's military + NATO weapons + sanctions). Russia is so incompetent and drained they're having to source drones from Iran and go begging to North Korea.
- plushpuffin 4y ago
  I wonder what this war is going to do to Russia's exports of military hardware. Not only can they not defend or re-supply themselves, but who is going to want their stripped down, even less capable export versions of their weapons now, after seeing it destroyed by a handful of pieces of 20-30 year old western tech?

adventured 4y ago

Even more important than the economic shrinkage, is the destruction of Russian industry (including military industry) through deprivation of technology access. This is also ignored by the parent comment. Russia can't rebuild or restock their military without the required external tech (much of which has been shown to depend on the US semiconductor industry). All of Russia's more modern military hardware requires foreign semiconductors, they're wildly incompetent in nearly all aspects domestically on advanced tech hardware. The sanctions are draining their military capabilities, in the present and for the next decade or so. Russia is trending toward empty when it comes to their military inventory and they won't be able to replenish it as things stand. The only way they can is if China steps in and provides an epic scale infusion (which is not in China's interest). Meanwhile the US can rev its military industrial complex to an extreme degree as it sees fit; and in tandem with Ukraine, obliterate Russia's military to the extent the Russians are dumb enough to continue occupying Ukrainian territory and sending more of their soldiers and hardware to the slaughter. The US hasn't even begun to seriously rev its production capabilities. The equation there is Russia is fucked. Their national strength derives from energy + military power / power perception - one of those is heavily destroyed (courtesy of Ukraine's military + NATO weapons + sanctions). Russia is so incompetent and drained they're having to source drones from Iran and go begging to North Korea.

plushpuffin 4y ago
I wonder what this war is going to do to Russia's exports of military hardware. Not only can they not defend or re-supply themselves, but who is going to want their stripped down, even less capable export versions of their weapons now, after seeing it destroyed by a handful of pieces of 20-30 year old western tech?