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Ask HN: What technology is mocked today but will be common within 20 years?
Electricity, computers, and the Internet were all roundly mocked at one point, but now those anti-critics are dismissed as myopic and backward.
What technology, if any, will make today's critics look foolish in 20 years?
- Jack1a 4y ago
- rolph 4y agoprivacy and ad blocking, fully synthetic vaccines, 3G mobile.
- pid-1 4y agoIf NFTs actually become widely adopted it's gonna be a wild plot twist.
- ilrwbwrkhv 4y agoIt won't be widely adopted.
- elzbardico 4y agoYou’re an optimist
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- soulofmischief 4y agoTo a non-observant reader, it might seem like a twist.
- muzani 4y agoI actually expect it to be adopted for something other than art. Probably things like contracts.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- countvonbalzac 4y agoMaybe VR or AR. Maybe people will actually be wearing AR glasses and those will be the new smart phones.
- hmrtn 4y agoblockchains, likely.
- mtmail 4y agoGoogle Glasses got mocked 10 years ago, maybe in 10 years AR glasses will be common.
- jschveibinz 4y ago- CO2 harvesting - Desalination - Nuclear power (fission & fusion) - Robotic labor & automation - Sustainable 3d printed structures - EV’s - Urban cooling chimneys - Plant-based food tech - Genetic engineering - Synthetic human organs - Weight loss meds - Synthetic blood - Augmented cognition - Robotic medicine - Online higher education …as a start
- neojebfkekeej 4y agoIt’s unlikely that blockchain / NFT’s will become widely adopted. History proves that human’s like a central authority, just not one that actively works against them.
- mutt2016 4y agoFascinating. I hadn't considered this. Humans like central authority, and if dictators and monarchs were fair there would be no democracy. Extrapolating on this thought, could a democratic blockchain work? I can't even fathom "how", but some sort of ability to elect an entity who votes on your behalf. With an opposition, etc...
- BizarroLand 4y agoSome version of it may be implemented by America switching to a digital currency. There would be a central regulatory bank that administers financial transactions and serves as a source of truth while Point of Transaction registers send the data for the plusses and minuses in every non-physical cash transaction event. It wouldn't supplant the physical dollar in any reasonable time as there are many reasons why such bearer bonds would be useful, but I could see it displacing the VISA/MC/AMEX/DISCOVER dominance over electronic financial transactions in America at least.
- soulofmischief 4y agoWhat you're describing is referred to as governance in the blockchain community, and there is a ton of pre-existing literature and live examples of governance in action on chains like Ethereum. Go fork or try to build one! Governance is a killer feature of smart contract systems.
- TrapLord_Rhodo 4y agoI can't tell if this is a joke or not but i'll bite. Delegated proof of stake is exactly as you describe and there are 10+ $1B chains that have this mechanism.
- 4y ago
- danShumway 4y agoOnions. People devalue onions, but they add a deeper taste and texture to pretty much every single stir fry or stew. There are very few dishes that can't be enhanced by adding just a little bit of diced onion (even many sweet or salty dishes), and many dishes benefit from adding fresh onion as well. There are also so many different varieties of onions, and each has its own subtly different taste. Learning which kind of onion is the right kind to use for which dish is a fun and rewarding pastime. Not to mention that they can be caramelized in a non-stick pan without adding oil, which is pretty useful. In 20 years, people will no longer be sleeping on this, and as a result onions will be much more expensive than they are today. I've started going out at night and burying onions in the front yard of my apartment complex so that I'll be able to cash out when this happens.
- glonq 4y agoI used to tie an onion to my belt, which was the style at the time.
- greenbit 4y agoAnd you used to be "with it", until they changed what "it" was, am I right?
- daemoens 4y agoOnions are already used heavily in almost all cuisine though? It might just be America/Europe who use them a bit less than the rest of the world, but they're still used a lot.
- danShumway 4y agoEven better. Decent presence in international markets, high potential for growth domestically. I'm gonna make a fortune on this.
- JoshuaDavid 4y agoIf only there were some way to turn money today into a guarantee of onions at some time in the future.
- 1123581321 4y agoWeight loss pills.
- johncearls 4y agoI'd go with weight loss peptides or nucleotides (so injectables), but yeah, this is coming hard.
- e9 4y agoI think injections will be replaced with transdermal delivery(through skin). Some popular peptides already popping up like that.
- filoleg 4y agoI mean, they do exist already, and are primarily amphetamine-salts-based prescription drugs. However, they are not weight loss pills in a sense that they do something to reduce bodyfat on its own. They just suppress appetite, and you lose weight naturally by eating less. And unless you experience significant side effects from those drugs, imo this would be preferable over drugs that do something to actually mess with bodyfat levels directly. Potential side-effects of that direct approach just seem to not be worth it, but that's just a speculation, given such a method currently doesn't exist at all.
- BizarroLand 4y agomRNA immunizations. I think we're right around the corner from finding a lot of really great and useful applications for that technology. 20 years from now we should have enough data on its applications that there will be simple treatments and cures for many lifelong afflictions.
- version_five 4y agoWhat is something they've reliably addressed now? For all the praise heaped on them, they didn't really get us out of covid for more than a few months, and I haven't seen any other breakthroughs. It seems more like something that sounded promising and failed. Is there something that we're on the cusp of that will change that?
- rolph 4y agothe speed at which the vaccine was produced was not just administrative flexing, but was enabled by the nature of the technique. old school would have taken 6 months minimum to grow a vaccine and large scale bioprocess plantization would have been needed. the covid virus changes so fast that old school bioprocess would have left us effectively without vaccine.
- standyro 4y agoIt wasn’t a failure. The first time I got COVID I was sick for three long arduous weeks. A few years later, the second time I got COVID ~ after having rounds of the mRNA vaccines, I was only sick for a week or so. No fever, no loss of taste, with extremely mild symptoms. That was a pretty marked anecdotal improvement for my life. Pretty sure I’m not alone with that either.
- Kaibeezy 4y agoVat food.
- abraxas 4y agoAlmost certainly self driving vehicles of all kinds. Even in the absence of any major ML algorithm breakthrough, I believe there is enough work already accomplished where the industry can grind out a well functioning solution in 20 years. This kind of time frame is long enough where I think that level 5 fully self driven cars will be available from major brands at prices that will make it affordable even for middle class buyers.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- jaxn 4y agoThe downvotes you received are the proof you are right.
- version_five 4y ago> Electricity, computers, and the Internet were all roundly mocked at one point What?
- acchow 4y agoI don't know if electricity was mocked, but certainly the early internet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOx2GUaVTi8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOx2GUaVTi8
- version_five 4y agoI don't agree that supports your point. It's a comedy show and that's his interview style, it's not remotely "roundly mock[ing]" the internet. The fact that Bill Gates is on a talk show means it was already very mainstream
- standyro 4y agoThe internet was certainly not mainstream at the time of that interview. Maybe somewhere along the early adopter curve, if anything. Bill Gates became famous for founding Microsoft, which listed for an IPO in 1986, way before the internet really took off. Somewhere in the Microsoft Windows 95/98 era is generally the first experience most Americans had with the internet.
- RestlessMind 4y ago"by 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine." - a Nobel prize winner in 1998. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/paul-krugman-internets-effect-economy/ https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/paul-krugman-internets-eff...
- datameta 4y agoAnalog computing for hyper-efficient on-device ML.
- Semiapies 4y agoI'm trying to think of technologies "roundly mocked" twenty years ago that are common today.
- solarmist 4y agoHandheld computers.
- hulitu 4y agoThey tried. Look at the parodies iOS and Android.
- standyro 4y agoPretty sure I remember reading years of Slashdot comments that mocked the iPod and the iPhone for being obtuse overly simplified products, blatantly missing the obvious leaps forward in ease of use for mass market adoption of handheld computers.
- Semiapies 4y agoBy the standard of commenters on some websites, everything is "roundly mocked". Besides, both were just Apple's entrances into particular markets, not technologies themselves.
- WheelsAtLarge 4y agoVertical farming, it's a great way to grow food for the masses without having to clear land. It reduces the water and fuel needed to feed a city.
- tarunmuvvala 4y agoI am curious why will this scale for all plants. There are a lot limitations for the type of plants they can grow. What are the factors that will lead to the growth of vertical farming?
- WheelsAtLarge 4y agoProbably not 100% of the plants but a big number of them. I believe robotics will be a big plus and the ability to control the internal environment will lead to higher yields. Both will help keep the costs down. I also think that water conservation will be very important in many areas of the world so vertical farming will help with that. Lastly, lots of fossil fuel is used to move the crops and the fertilizer used to grow them. Vertical farming will help there too.
- iancmceachern 4y agoI've spent a lot of time in this space, tried to build a couple startups. The economics don't really add up for most farming, but do for some. It works for specialized things like the living lettuce already in super markets, sprouts, quick and fresh stuff. Things that take months to reach harvest, and have a lot of waste plant material (we don't eat the entire thing like lettuce) it's wildly uneconomical. It's good from a pest management standpoint as well. Any gains in water efficiency and fuel savings are erased by the energy cost to power the grow lights and climate control. It's great for specific things like lettuce, pot, mushrooms, etc. but for 90% of our food supply like fruits, vegetables, grains, etc. it's just not viable.
- e9 4y agoTransdermal delivery(through skin) of vitamins and other substances/medications. I’ve been using various products since 2017 and they work. No need for needle injections or large pills.
- dexwiz 4y agoFusion. The current pace of research is extremely slow. The Wendelstein 7-X, one of the most advanced fusion experiments, was designed on super computers almost 30 years ago, since which huge advances have been made in materials and simulations. Also fusion has always had an uphill battle against entrenched petrochemical interests, that may change in the coming decades.
- octokatt 4y agoPersonal assistants like Siri or Hello Google. They’re not be leveraged well now, but having an assistant to remind you about a complex pill regimen or physical therapy exercises will be huge for medical care (for better and worse). Even stuff like adding things to a grocery list, then mapping across to a shopping app is mostly possible now with issues; in twenty years, that barrier will be gone. —- Also, the Yanko sink/toilet to save water. We gotta stop wasting drinkable water. https://www.yankodesign.com/2010/01/20/all-in-one-loo-with-a-reason/ https://www.yankodesign.com/2010/01/20/all-in-one-loo-with-a...
- tra3 4y agoThis is a good one. I was excited when it was announced but I stopped using voice assistants almost completely. Partly privacy, partly poor implementation. It showed so much promise, once implementation improves I don't see how it wouldn't be ubiquitous.
- enviclash 4y agoNetwork science applications to medicine.
- logicalmonster 4y agoI don't know if it's "mocked" exactly, but if nuclear energy is not much more common in 20 years, something has gone very wrong in the world akin to a major economic collapse, famine, a real plague, or a world war. Nuclear energy is something that should unite both sides of the political aisle: whether or not you're scared of climate change, everybody wants access to cheap energy to power industry and human needs.
- heavyset_go 4y agoHydrogen for fuel.
- _hypx 4y agoProbably the big one. All the critics of it assume everyone will be a millionaire-adjacent or better and have home charging. In reality, the vast majority of people need fuel.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- tonymet 4y agointernal combustion engines and fossil fuels. once electric crashes the grid and we lose the lithium war with china , people will pay life savings for a gas generator
- muzika 4y agoLong term solar + EVs will win. With enough solar panels and backup batteries no generators are needed. Currently they are too expensive, but will become more affordable in the future.
- RestlessMind 4y agoCrypto / Blockchains. Since this question routinely comes up on HN, I gathered a few legit examples[0] of how Crypto is helping. I am also willing to have a bet about overall Crypto market cap[1] at the end of this decade (11:59pm PST on 31st Dec 2020) - I bet it will be more than 1T USD vs 932B today. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32406095 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32406095 [1] the number at the top of https://coinmarketcap.com/ https://coinmarketcap.com/
- tarunmuvvala 4y agoThis is depended on a lot of fiat defaulting and people using these as mode of transaction. What are you thoughts on the next wave?
- muzani 4y agoWith today's inflation rates, I'm surprised crypto is in a bear market. I think 2018 was a legitimate run when we were all thinking of legit use cases and arguing whether they were practical. The last few years were more of a bubble, with NFTs and shitcoins all over the place. Crypto seems like something that would benefit from Gustafson's Law. Digital finance infrastructure is not yet good enough to make it useful. Like Instagram relying on web and app tech, crypto still needs lots of changes in how we deal with money and how governments treat it.
- archon1410 4y agobut... 2020 is already gone. did you mean 2030?
- elzbardico 4y agoInternal Combustion Engines running on fossil fuels
- solarmist 4y agoYes, hopefully in a niche role though.
- tarunmuvvala 4y agoWorks for the developed world who have buying power. I am not sure how will it work for the developing world where the buying power is very less. I love the fact that the EV bring a lot efficiency.
- muzani 4y agoAI content generation most likely. The DALL-E/GitHub Copilot conversations are a nice hint. They were mocked for being if/else statements or "a solution looking for a problem" 1-2 years ago. Today, we're having conversations on whether they're moral; a hint that they actually represent a threat to artists. I think they'll probably become similar to tractors or digital marketing in the future. Despite tractors, farmers still have to do hard labor, they just make more output from their endurance. Digital marketing didn't kill offline marketing. But they'll all still change the nature of jobs.
- s__s 4y agoGood art (regardless of medium) is fundamentally about communication. It allows us to communicate ideas and emotions in abstract ways bypassing the limitations of language. Computer generated art can’t accomplish that. I don’t see any real threat here to artists. Granted, computers can certainly generate something that looks cool or just pleasing to the eye. Something you might want to hang up on your wall or something to add a splash of colour to the room. In that respect I suppose there’s some limited threat.
- standyro 4y agoIt’s just another tool in the toolbox for artists. Just like artists currently use Adobe software to emulate brushes like real paintings, there is no reason an artist couldn’t use AI generated art to accomplish things that would otherwise be manual.
- wnkrshm 4y agoAlso, what's lacking at is intention. If you click through a million suggestions for inpaints, you're not the artist but rather a customer, commissioning an artist. It's a step from artist to art director - the difference between a musician playing an instrument and a composer. But if the composer cannot play an instrument, it's hard to do improv jazz.
- muzani 4y ago"It allows us to communicate ideas and emotions in abstract ways bypassing the limitations of language. Computer generated art can’t accomplish that. I don’t see any real threat here to artists." I strongly disagree here. I think we tend to anthropomorphize AI, atrributing emotions and humor as something only sentient beings can do. What it does is really spot patterns. It's akin to someone who has read not only thousands of books, but also also surfed Reddit for thousands of years, and read all the smutty fan fiction out there. OpenAI stuff (DALL-E 2 and recent models of GPT-3) feels rather "smoothed". It's like looking at someone on LinkedIn and then thinking they don't have a personality. It's capable of subtext. I ask it to describe anger, and it could be anything between a yelling person to someone who is cold and sarcastic. It's capable of humor. It's capable of flirting. I use GPT-3 for poetry, because it's a hell of a lot better at writing poetry than me. It does poorly at finding rhymes and it doesn't understand syllables, but it can definitely find different ways to express an idea. Another weakness is that people who don't understand poetry or art are bad at giving instructions to AI. If you hire Shakespeare on Upwork and give him instructions to, "Write a love poem to my wife for her anniversary," the output is going to be uninspired. People will have to learn to work with AI the way a director works with actors, not the way a scrum master works with engineers. The director sees the big picture and how the scenes flow into each other, while the AI has to be trained to get into character.
- iancmceachern 4y agoRobotic surgury. Robots will be ubiquitous in the operating room, and more than just the "dumb" teleoperated ones we have now, but ones that watch what's going on and help.
- iancmceachern 4y agoBiologics in Healthcare. Most traditional cancer treatments will be rendered obsolete, many forms of cancer will be cured with a "simple" (in use only) injection or pill.
- iancmceachern 4y agoFurbys
- jschveibinz 4y agoNobody saw that coming.
- runjake 4y ago- Lab-grown/3D-printed meat - Nuclear power - AR - EVs - Alternative style EVs like the Arcimoto.
- bjourne 4y agoRecumbent vehicles like velomobiles: https://trisled.com.au/hpv-type/road/ https://trisled.com.au/hpv-type/road/ These bikes are insanely fast. An untrained person can easily keep up with Tour de France riders. Now add a small 300W electric motor to it and you don't need a car for most transportation at all. Their Achilles' heel is that carbon fiber production is labor intensive so velomobiles are expensive since their frames are made of carbon fiber. If someone could automate carbon fiber manufacturing and bring down costs they could revolutionize urban transportation.
- heavyset_go 4y agoAs a cyclist, I know a few people with these. The consensus I get is that they're basically invisible to trucks and SUVs, and riders are only comfortable riding them on trails closed to cyclists and pedestrians only. I certainly wouldn't ride one in mixed traffic even in the most bike friendly cities in the US.
- lmarcos 4y agoUV umbrellas for summer. People love getting tanned, and you'll see almost nobody protecting themselves against the sun in summer. In 20 years, with 50 degrees Celsius during summer for consecutive weeks, you won't get out of your house in summer (and if you have to, you'll go out using long sleeve t-shirts, a cap and a UV umbrella). Now you're probably laughing... exactly my point.
- schwartzworld 4y agoYou could have said the same thing about long-sleeve swimsuits when I was a kid. Both my kids wear long sleeves in the water and it's starting to get much more common.
- heavyset_go 4y agoI already avoid the sun as it is, so I don't find it laughable. I think we're slowly acknowledging deleterious effects of UV absorption versus the desire to tan.