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>There is no evidence that this is true; scientists believe that an animal is the most likely source of the coronavirus. Well, 2 things: 1. An animal could be

>There is no evidence that this is true; scientists believe that an animal is the most likely source of the coronavirus. Well, 2 things: 1. An animal could be the source of the virus which could be leaked from a lab. Even with the lab leak hypothesis an animal is part of the chain, just not the last step. 2. There is also no evidence that the epidemic had no lab involvement. COVID was never found in any animal from the Huanan market.

igouy 4y ago
> … no evidence that the epidemic had no lab involvement… "So you simply cannot prove general claims that are negative claims -- one cannot prove that ghosts do not exist; one cannot prove that leprechauns too do not exist. One simply cannot prove a negative and general claim." https://www.qcc.cuny.edu/socialsciences/ppecorino/phil_of_religion_text/CHAPTER_5_ARGUMENTS_EXPERIENCE/Burden-of-Proof.htm#:~:text=You%20can%20prove%20a%20specific,top%20drawer%20of%20the%20desk https://www.qcc.cuny.edu/socialsciences/ppecorino/phil_of_re.... What would you accept as evidence of "no lab involvement"?
- WithinReason 4y ago
  > What would you accept as evidence of "no lab involvement"? Read the last sentence.
  - igouy 4y ago
    You seem to want to play a guessing game.
    - tharne 4y ago
      > COVID was never found in any animal from the Huanan market Seems pretty straightforward to me. The Chinese said it came from a market, but never found a single animal in that market with COVID.
      - igouy 4y ago
        And the question I asked someone else was — What would you accept as evidence of "no lab involvement"?
        seer-zig 4y ago
        Not the poster you're responding to, but a start is to allow external investigation into the labs by a third party.
        igouy 4y ago
        The only way that could resolve these questions is if evidence of lab involvement was found. Not finding such evidence has WithinReason saying "There is also no evidence that the epidemic had no lab involvement." one cannot prove that ghosts do not exist
        deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
        seer-zig 4y ago
        There is enough reason to suspect something is going on though, especially that the CCP is known to lie and cover up.
        igouy 4y ago
        > … something is going on… Something not very mysterious — 2022 "Wildlife trade is likely the source of SARS-CoV-2" https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.add8384 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.add8384 2003 "Asymptomatic animal traders prove positive for SARS virus" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1140695/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1140695/ ---- The scary part is that there's every reason to expect this to happen again and again.
      - igouy 4y ago
        "Trump says that 'if we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases' of the coronavirus." Apparently "No reports are known to be available for SARS-CoV-2 test results from these mammals at the Huanan market" and "we do not have access to any live animal samples from relevant species" and "The animals on these farms (nearly 1 million) were rapidly released, sold, or killed in early 2020 … apparently without testing for SARS-CoV-2 … Live animals sold at the market … were apparently not sampled either." https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8715 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8715
    - WithinReason 4y ago
      Not sure why I have to spell it out: Finding COVID in animals in the Huanan market and tracing them back to a wild population infected with COVID would be a knock down argument against a lab leak.
      - igouy 4y ago
        Spelling it out avoids unnecessary misunderstanding, thank you. Apparently "No reports are known to be available for SARS-CoV-2 test results from these mammals at the Huanan market" and "we do not have access to any live animal samples from relevant species" and "The animals on these farms (nearly 1 million) were rapidly released, sold, or killed in early 2020 … apparently without testing for SARS-CoV-2 … Live animals sold at the market … were apparently not sampled either." https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8715 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8715 So the evidence you require will never be found. ---- otoh "Multiple positive samples were taken from one stall known to have sold live mammals, and the water drain proximal to this stall, as well as other sewerages and a nearby wildlife stall on the southwest side of the market, tested positive for SARS-CoV-2."
        WithinReason 4y ago
        They could still find a recent common ancestor of the original strain in a bat species for example. COVID samples from the market could have come from a human spreader.
        igouy 4y ago
        Would you accept that as evidence of "no lab involvement"? Would we hear bat species SARS-CoV-2 could have come from a human spreader :-)
        WithinReason 4y ago
        I think it should be possible to tell which direction evolution went
- haihaibye 4y ago
  Confirming zooinosis outside of the lab (eg outside Wuhan) would disprove lab leak Finding the animal reservoir, would disprove it was modified in the lab. I guess it would also lower the chance of a lab leak (though I could still be natural) China allowing a proper investigation would reduce the odds (though how to prove they haven't tampered with evidence in the years since) I think every day the natural source isn't found should increase the odds of an unnatural one
  - igouy 4y ago
    ? "Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a zoonotic virus—one that spilled over from another species to infect and transmit among humans. … Sequencing has subsequently shown that mink-to-human transmission also occurred." https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abe5901 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abe5901
    - haihaibye 4y ago
      Sorry, to clarify - I mean the original animal reservoir and original zoonotic event
      - igouy 4y ago
        Thanks, I'd started to suspect that was your meaning.
  - igouy 4y ago
    >… outside of the lab would disprove lab leak Might someone still claim — transferred without infection beyond the lab? Given the available evidence how would "Confirming zooinosis outside of the lab" be done? > Finding the animal reservoir… In bats? In intermediary animals? Apparently "No reports are known to be available for SARS-CoV-2 test results from these mammals at the Huanan market" and "we do not have access to any live animal samples from relevant species" and "The animals on these farms (nearly 1 million) were rapidly released, sold, or killed in early 2020 … apparently without testing for SARS-CoV-2 … Live animals sold at the market … were apparently not sampled either." https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8715 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8715 > … how to prove they haven't tampered… So even "a proper investigation" will be insufficient. > … every day the natural source isn't found should increase the odds… Hardly. Let's make a wild ass guess that vastly more resources are being focused on the next Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL game, than on finding "the natural source". What if "the natural source" was destroyed as part of the tear-down of that particular live animal trade?
igouy 4y ago
> … an animal is part of the chain, just not the last step. If I understand correctly, for some reason you find "no lab involvement" for that "last step" implausible. Why? "In May, researchers reported that two coronaviruses in dogs recombined in Malaysia. The result was a hybrid that infected eight children." https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/14/science/bat-coronaviruses-lab-leak.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/14/science/bat-coronaviruses...
oasisbob 4y ago
> 2. There is also no evidence that the epidemic had no lab involvement The timing of the A and B lineages spreading at the same time strongly indicates multiple spillover events.

igouy 4y ago

> … no evidence that the epidemic had no lab involvement… "So you simply cannot prove general claims that are negative claims -- one cannot prove that ghosts do not exist; one cannot prove that leprechauns too do not exist. One simply cannot prove a negative and general claim." https://www.qcc.cuny.edu/socialsciences/ppecorino/phil_of_religion_text/CHAPTER_5_ARGUMENTS_EXPERIENCE/Burden-of-Proof.htm#:~:text=You%20can%20prove%20a%20specific,top%20drawer%20of%20the%20desk https://www.qcc.cuny.edu/socialsciences/ppecorino/phil_of_re.... What would you accept as evidence of "no lab involvement"?

WithinReason 4y ago
> What would you accept as evidence of "no lab involvement"? Read the last sentence.
- igouy 4y ago
  You seem to want to play a guessing game.
  - tharne 4y ago
    > COVID was never found in any animal from the Huanan market Seems pretty straightforward to me. The Chinese said it came from a market, but never found a single animal in that market with COVID.
    - igouy 4y ago
      And the question I asked someone else was — What would you accept as evidence of "no lab involvement"?
      - seer-zig 4y ago
        Not the poster you're responding to, but a start is to allow external investigation into the labs by a third party.
        igouy 4y ago
        The only way that could resolve these questions is if evidence of lab involvement was found. Not finding such evidence has WithinReason saying "There is also no evidence that the epidemic had no lab involvement." one cannot prove that ghosts do not exist
        deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
        seer-zig 4y ago
        There is enough reason to suspect something is going on though, especially that the CCP is known to lie and cover up.
        igouy 4y ago
        > … something is going on… Something not very mysterious — 2022 "Wildlife trade is likely the source of SARS-CoV-2" https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.add8384 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.add8384 2003 "Asymptomatic animal traders prove positive for SARS virus" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1140695/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1140695/ ---- The scary part is that there's every reason to expect this to happen again and again.
    - igouy 4y ago
      "Trump says that 'if we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases' of the coronavirus." Apparently "No reports are known to be available for SARS-CoV-2 test results from these mammals at the Huanan market" and "we do not have access to any live animal samples from relevant species" and "The animals on these farms (nearly 1 million) were rapidly released, sold, or killed in early 2020 … apparently without testing for SARS-CoV-2 … Live animals sold at the market … were apparently not sampled either." https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8715 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8715
  - WithinReason 4y ago
    Not sure why I have to spell it out: Finding COVID in animals in the Huanan market and tracing them back to a wild population infected with COVID would be a knock down argument against a lab leak.
    - igouy 4y ago
      Spelling it out avoids unnecessary misunderstanding, thank you. Apparently "No reports are known to be available for SARS-CoV-2 test results from these mammals at the Huanan market" and "we do not have access to any live animal samples from relevant species" and "The animals on these farms (nearly 1 million) were rapidly released, sold, or killed in early 2020 … apparently without testing for SARS-CoV-2 … Live animals sold at the market … were apparently not sampled either." https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8715 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8715 So the evidence you require will never be found. ---- otoh "Multiple positive samples were taken from one stall known to have sold live mammals, and the water drain proximal to this stall, as well as other sewerages and a nearby wildlife stall on the southwest side of the market, tested positive for SARS-CoV-2."
      - WithinReason 4y ago
        They could still find a recent common ancestor of the original strain in a bat species for example. COVID samples from the market could have come from a human spreader.
        igouy 4y ago
        Would you accept that as evidence of "no lab involvement"? Would we hear bat species SARS-CoV-2 could have come from a human spreader :-)
        WithinReason 4y ago
        I think it should be possible to tell which direction evolution went
haihaibye 4y ago
Confirming zooinosis outside of the lab (eg outside Wuhan) would disprove lab leak Finding the animal reservoir, would disprove it was modified in the lab. I guess it would also lower the chance of a lab leak (though I could still be natural) China allowing a proper investigation would reduce the odds (though how to prove they haven't tampered with evidence in the years since) I think every day the natural source isn't found should increase the odds of an unnatural one
- igouy 4y ago
  ? "Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a zoonotic virus—one that spilled over from another species to infect and transmit among humans. … Sequencing has subsequently shown that mink-to-human transmission also occurred." https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abe5901 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abe5901
  - haihaibye 4y ago
    Sorry, to clarify - I mean the original animal reservoir and original zoonotic event
    - igouy 4y ago
      Thanks, I'd started to suspect that was your meaning.
- igouy 4y ago
  >… outside of the lab would disprove lab leak Might someone still claim — transferred without infection beyond the lab? Given the available evidence how would "Confirming zooinosis outside of the lab" be done? > Finding the animal reservoir… In bats? In intermediary animals? Apparently "No reports are known to be available for SARS-CoV-2 test results from these mammals at the Huanan market" and "we do not have access to any live animal samples from relevant species" and "The animals on these farms (nearly 1 million) were rapidly released, sold, or killed in early 2020 … apparently without testing for SARS-CoV-2 … Live animals sold at the market … were apparently not sampled either." https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8715 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8715 > … how to prove they haven't tampered… So even "a proper investigation" will be insufficient. > … every day the natural source isn't found should increase the odds… Hardly. Let's make a wild ass guess that vastly more resources are being focused on the next Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL game, than on finding "the natural source". What if "the natural source" was destroyed as part of the tear-down of that particular live animal trade?

igouy 4y ago

> … an animal is part of the chain, just not the last step. If I understand correctly, for some reason you find "no lab involvement" for that "last step" implausible. Why? "In May, researchers reported that two coronaviruses in dogs recombined in Malaysia. The result was a hybrid that infected eight children." https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/14/science/bat-coronaviruses-lab-leak.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/14/science/bat-coronaviruses...

oasisbob 4y ago

> 2. There is also no evidence that the epidemic had no lab involvement The timing of the A and B lineages spreading at the same time strongly indicates multiple spillover events.